Why do expert say: Buckle in for a brutal free-fall in home prices - Housing Bubble

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First time homebuyers are also screwed.

Keep saving and you'll be in a better position once prices come down more.

Hey looks like interest only loans are back on the deck.. that means we are really started to see home prices collapse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nope. No inventory.

Really? I am seeing lots of inventory in the inside-the-beltway surburbs in Moco, Arlington, and Fairfax. It's just that sellers still are pricing like it's the spring.

Barely anything in the neighborhoods I’m looking at in close-in Silver Spring. And in my first choice neighborhood not a single house for sale right now at any price or size. Prices elsewhere seem to holding firm. Yes, taking longer to sell, but sellers getting what they’re asking for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First time homebuyers are also screwed.

Keep saving and you'll be in a better position once prices come down more.

Depends. Or you’ll find yourself in bidding wars like we saw pre rate hikes. Houses in my area selling for $50 - $100k over asking price. It was absurd.

[Anonymous]

I’m old enough to have learned that predicting markets is a fool’s errand, so all I have is scenarios in my head and the probabilities that I guesstimate for them. That being said, have caution about DCUM predictions as I’ve seen this site’s echo chamber tendencies. Back during bidding wars, the mantra on here was that prices are going up and folks will be priced out forever. Now the mantra is prices will crash in epic fashion. I think this site is an excellent barometer of current market psychology, but not necessarily a place that has a track record of predictive strength.

[Anonymous]

Powell said during his speech today that there was a post Covid “housing bubble” (yes, a direct quote!) that was “unsustainable” and that “now the housing market will go through the other side of that.”

The Fed went from seeing a “reset,” to a “difficult correction,” to straight up telling people they are purposefully popping the “housing bubble” they created. Don’t fight the Fed, people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m old enough to have learned that predicting markets is a fool’s errand, so all I have is scenarios in my head and the probabilities that I guesstimate for them. That being said, have caution about DCUM predictions as I’ve seen this site’s echo chamber tendencies. Back during bidding wars, the mantra on here was that prices are going up and folks will be priced out forever. Now the mantra is prices will crash in epic fashion. I think this site is an excellent barometer of current market psychology, but not necessarily a place that has a track record of predictive strength.

But we don't have to guess. Powell has been clear that he's raising the rates and even said that there's a housing bubble that he's trying to correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m old enough to have learned that predicting markets is a fool’s errand, so all I have is scenarios in my head and the probabilities that I guesstimate for them. That being said, have caution about DCUM predictions as I’ve seen this site’s echo chamber tendencies. Back during bidding wars, the mantra on here was that prices are going up and folks will be priced out forever. Now the mantra is prices will crash in epic fashion. I think this site is an excellent barometer of current market psychology, but not necessarily a place that has a track record of predictive strength.

But we don't have to guess. Powell has been clear that he's raising the rates and even said that there's a housing bubble that he's trying to correct.

Even if prices go down … the cost of housing has inflated exponentially with interest rates tripling, real estate taxes skyrocketing, utilities jacking up, cost of maintenance up a huge amount, insurance rates way up.

Values would have to fall over 50 percent for housing costs not to be highly inflationary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Powell said during his speech today that there was a post Covid “housing bubble” (yes, a direct quote!) that was “unsustainable” and that “now the housing market will go through the other side of that.”

The Fed went from seeing a “reset,” to a “difficult correction,” to straight up telling people they are purposefully popping the “housing bubble” they created. Don’t fight the Fed, people.

Ok but things have calmed down. There are no longer bidding wars all across the country and people having to bid way over ask. Even properties in my parents small town were in bidding wars. A decade ago that was unheard of.

The market has calmed down. There has been a lot of inflation. The most we have experienced in decades. There’s a very good chance that the increases prices are entrenched and this is the new normal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m old enough to have learned that predicting markets is a fool’s errand, so all I have is scenarios in my head and the probabilities that I guesstimate for them. That being said, have caution about DCUM predictions as I’ve seen this site’s echo chamber tendencies. Back during bidding wars, the mantra on here was that prices are going up and folks will be priced out forever. Now the mantra is prices will crash in epic fashion. I think this site is an excellent barometer of current market psychology, but not necessarily a place that has a track record of predictive strength.

But we don't have to guess. Powell has been clear that he's raising the rates and even said that there's a housing bubble that he's trying to correct.

Will you provide a link? I can’t find anything with Powell calling it a “housing bubble.” I can find references to housing inflation, but not a bubble. My assumption is that people aren’t understanding the difference between a market slowing and calming down and a market crashing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Powell said during his speech today that there was a post Covid “housing bubble” (yes, a direct quote!) that was “unsustainable” and that “now the housing market will go through the other side of that.”

The Fed went from seeing a “reset,” to a “difficult correction,” to straight up telling people they are purposefully popping the “housing bubble” they created. Don’t fight the Fed, people.

+1 It's clear to anyone who doesn't have their head in the sand or is trying to snow people because their income relies on selling homes.

[Anonymous]

Fed is going to cut rates, Elon urging it

https://fortune.com/2022/11/30/elon-musk-severe-recession-fed-cut-interest-rates/amp/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m old enough to have learned that predicting markets is a fool’s errand, so all I have is scenarios in my head and the probabilities that I guesstimate for them. That being said, have caution about DCUM predictions as I’ve seen this site’s echo chamber tendencies. Back during bidding wars, the mantra on here was that prices are going up and folks will be priced out forever. Now the mantra is prices will crash in epic fashion. I think this site is an excellent barometer of current market psychology, but not necessarily a place that has a track record of predictive strength.

But we don't have to guess. Powell has been clear that he's raising the rates and even said that there's a housing bubble that he's trying to correct.

Even if prices go down … the cost of housing has inflated exponentially with interest rates tripling, real estate taxes skyrocketing, utilities jacking up, cost of maintenance up a huge amount, insurance rates way up.

Values would have to fall over 50 percent for housing costs not to be highly inflationary.

You're making a case for why home prices will fall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nope. No inventory.

Really? I am seeing lots of inventory in the inside-the-beltway surburbs in Moco, Arlington, and Fairfax. It's just that sellers still are pricing like it's the spring.

Barely anything in the neighborhoods I’m looking at in close-in Silver Spring. And in my first choice neighborhood not a single house for sale right now at any price or size. Prices elsewhere seem to holding firm. Yes, taking longer to sell, but sellers getting what they’re asking for.

Safe areas like Bethesda are going to be ok, silver springs will fall first because it has the more poor's and underperforming school

[Anonymous]

Because interest rates are rising. What is going to happen when people with variable rate loans arm periods end???

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Fed is going to cut rates, Elon urging it

https://fortune.com/2022/11/30/elon-musk-severe-recession-fed-cut-interest-rates/amp/

Did I miss the sarcasm here? Powell and the Fed Governors have been saying that they'll continue to raise rates in support of their mission, but you think they'll do a 180 and reduce rates because . . . Elon Musk wants them to?