Waitlist Movement Updates

[Anonymous]

Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).

Surprised they’re taking that many 5th graders. With the number of kids returning for 9th, that building is going to be stuffed to the gills.

[Anonymous]

It's almost like BASIS and Latin are the only two schools in DC.

I need to bake some special brownies for Capitol Hill parents to realize that life does not begin and end in 5th grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP. I object to Walls eliminating testing because it's an objective measurement of achievement. More objective than GPA from such a wide variety of schools (nobody can seriously argue that a GPA of 3.7 out of Jefferson is the same as a GPA of 3.7 out of BASIS) and certainly more objective than the ridiculous Walls interview process.

Ok, so you won't be applying and staying at your present school. Of course a lot of privates are going test optional, also. So I guess you'll strike them off too.

There are a lot of great students that aren't great test takers and vice-versa. Not to mention kids with IEPs. Some schools may be harder than others just like some teachers may grade harder. None of it is perfect.

Students with IEPs got accommodations on testing. Then again, Walls has no IEP coordinator and reports hardly any students with IEPs so draw your own conclusions there. The private schools definitely don't settle for a 10 minute zoom interview - they have a comprehensive admissions process. Nothing remotely comparable to the BS process at Walls.

The Walls test wasn't a great indicator but it was at least the same for all test takers and a reasonable barometer absent a more comprehensive admissions process. DCPS does a terrible job of promoting Walls as an option to students EOTR, even ones who could have passed the test and could handle the work load (ie charter/private/parochial students from Wards 7/8). DCPS is ambivalent about test-in schools in general and would never provide the necessary support for an admissions process akin to privates. They're deluded enough to think families shut out will just enroll at Coolidge, Dunbar or Eastern.

DCPS doesn’t want top performers from Wards 7 and 8 to go to Walls, they want them at their neighborhood schools to make them look better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's almost like BASIS and Latin are the only two schools in DC.

I need to bake some special brownies for Capitol Hill parents to realize that life does not begin and end in 5th grade.

Chances of lotterying into Basis and Latin do pretty much start and end in 5th grade.

Enjoy your brownies!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).

Surprised they’re taking that many 5th graders. With the number of kids returning for 9th, that building is going to be stuffed to the gills.

No, they have room for the upcoming year.

They will probably start limiting 5th grade admissions next year, though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).

What does this mean? Are you trying to say that they have 5 unfilled spots after blowing through the WL? Or that they have in reserve 5 spots over and above the 130 seats they filled in initial lottery? Or something else entirely?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's almost like BASIS and Latin are the only two schools in DC.

I need to bake some special brownies for Capitol Hill parents to realize that life does not begin and end in 5th grade.

Exhibit "A" for a DCUM poster who feels comfortable chiming in when they have no clue what they are talking about. 99.9999999% PP was a man, BTW.

What Mr. Mansplain doesn't understand is that the reason it seems like Basis and Latin are the only two schools in DC is because they are the only two schools that begin in 5th grade. Because the number of seats offered in the lottery is larger in 5th than in any subsequent year the chances of getting a seat in 5th are far better, so families need to try in 5th if they intend to move before MS (or HS).

But he won't read this, he's too busy on a call explaining to some woman what leadership looks like.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).

What does this mean? Are you trying to say that they have 5 unfilled spots after blowing through the WL? Or that they have in reserve 5 spots over and above the 130 seats they filled in initial lottery? Or something else entirely?

No. This means that of the additional seats offered in the lottery (or maybe slight waitlist movement so far), 130 kids have enrolled.

There are 5 "available seats" remaining, which will be filled from the waiting list.

Then, any additional waitlist movement will be based on a kid who ENROLLED for 5th grade unenrolling because they either move or get in somewhere they prefer.

The 5 seats remaining is basically a measure of how much the waitlist is likely to move.

[Anonymous]

Right - 130 kids have enrolled at this point. BASIS will enroll 5 more to reach 135 total. I would assume there are waitlist offers out there - so some of those five spots may soon be claimed. If they are not, BASIS will offer the slot(s) to the next person(s) on the waitlist until 135 have submitted enrollment paperwork.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).

What does this mean? Are you trying to say that they have 5 unfilled spots after blowing through the WL? Or that they have in reserve 5 spots over and above the 130 seats they filled in initial lottery? Or something else entirely?

No. This means that of the additional seats offered in the lottery (or maybe slight waitlist movement so far), 130 kids have enrolled.

There are 5 "available seats" remaining, which will be filled from the waiting list.

Then, any additional waitlist movement will be based on a kid who ENROLLED for 5th grade unenrolling because they either move or get in somewhere they prefer.

The 5 seats remaining is basically a measure of how much the waitlist is likely to move.

Well no, as the Latin waitlist moves (and possibly other waitlists such as 5th grade at Deal and Hardy feeders) more BASIS spots may open up. Not a lot, but some.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).

Surprised they’re taking that many 5th graders. With the number of kids returning for 9th, that building is going to be stuffed to the gills.

They would have known how many are returning before they decided how many 5th grade spots to open up.

I figured instead of reading more DCUM "opinions" on how full the building will or won't be and/or listening to DCUM assume they know more about enrollment patterns and data than a school would, I'd pull up historical data and see what it tells us. A couple of interesting things jump out:

*From 5th to 6th Basis lost 20 students this year. That is more than in the prior 3 years (13,10,14 respectively)
*This year's 6th and 7th grade classes (115 and 110) are smaller than the prior years' (128 and 118) by a combined 21 students
*This year's 8th grade class is the largest since 2017-2018 (92)
*This year's 12th grade class is the largest since 2017-2018 (52)
*This year's total enrollment (650) is down 13 from 20-21 and up 10 from 19-20
*5th grade enrollments for past 4 years are: 129,135,141,144,137

My conclusions are as follows:

1. The data is clear as mud with respect to trend lines and reenrollments. For every grade that has increased retention in one year that falls off in another. People with an agenda or preconceived notion may try and draw conclusions from these moving numbers but I would argue that no data scientist could rely on these numbers as statistically significant to draw any firm conclusions
2. Having said that, it would be truly anomalous for 90 of 92 8th graders to return for 9th grade. That's not a prediction, just an observation. In the last 4 years there have been 18,8,37,32 enrollment decreases from 8th to 9th. To lose only 2 would be a stark change.
3. Even if 90 kids return for 9th and 135 are admitted for 5th, considering the annual average attrition in all grades (but assuming artificially low attrition for 9th), and considering that audited enrollment data historically sheds a few 5th graders between enrollment and count day, the number of total students in the building will be about the same as it this year.

Global conclusion: Basis knows more about their enrollment than random DCUM know-it-alls

1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP. I object to Walls eliminating testing because it's an objective measurement of achievement. More objective than GPA from such a wide variety of schools (nobody can seriously argue that a GPA of 3.7 out of Jefferson is the same as a GPA of 3.7 out of BASIS) and certainly more objective than the ridiculous Walls interview process.

Ok, so you won't be applying and staying at your present school. Of course a lot of privates are going test optional, also. So I guess you'll strike them off too.

There are a lot of great students that aren't great test takers and vice-versa. Not to mention kids with IEPs. Some schools may be harder than others just like some teachers may grade harder. None of it is perfect.

Students with IEPs got accommodations on testing. Then again, Walls has no IEP coordinator and reports hardly any students with IEPs so draw your own conclusions there. The private schools definitely don't settle for a 10 minute zoom interview - they have a comprehensive admissions process. Nothing remotely comparable to the BS process at Walls.

The Walls test wasn't a great indicator but it was at least the same for all test takers and a reasonable barometer absent a more comprehensive admissions process. DCPS does a terrible job of promoting Walls as an option to students EOTR, even ones who could have passed the test and could handle the work load (ie charter/private/parochial students from Wards 7/8). DCPS is ambivalent about test-in schools in general and would never provide the necessary support for an admissions process akin to privates. They're deluded enough to think families shut out will just enroll at Coolidge, Dunbar or Eastern.

DCPS doesn’t want top performers from Wards 7 and 8 to go to Walls, they want them at their neighborhood schools to make them look better.

Those kids are way more likely to land at KIPP or DC Prep than Anacostia, Ballou or Woodson

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's almost like BASIS and Latin are the only two schools in DC.

I need to bake some special brownies for Capitol Hill parents to realize that life does not begin and end in 5th grade.

Exhibit "A" for a DCUM poster who feels comfortable chiming in when they have no clue what they are talking about. 99.9999999% PP was a man, BTW.

What Mr. Mansplain doesn't understand is that the reason it seems like Basis and Latin are the only two schools in DC is because they are the only two schools that begin in 5th grade. Because the number of seats offered in the lottery is larger in 5th than in any subsequent year the chances of getting a seat in 5th are far better, so families need to try in 5th if they intend to move before MS (or HS).

But he won't read this, he's too busy on a call explaining to some woman what leadership looks like.

Not PP - This coming school year has Latin II taking a full complement of 6th graders too with no sibling priority in place so that doesn't really fit this narrative

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Supposedly 5 5th grade spots left at BASIS (130 kids have submitted enrollment paperwork at this point).

What does this mean? Are you trying to say that they have 5 unfilled spots after blowing through the WL? Or that they have in reserve 5 spots over and above the 130 seats they filled in initial lottery? Or something else entirely?

No. This means that of the additional seats offered in the lottery (or maybe slight waitlist movement so far), 130 kids have enrolled.

There are 5 "available seats" remaining, which will be filled from the waiting list.

Then, any additional waitlist movement will be based on a kid who ENROLLED for 5th grade unenrolling because they either move or get in somewhere they prefer.

The 5 seats remaining is basically a measure of how much the waitlist is likely to move.

Your original post made no sense (and didn't say what you think it said). And now that you have "explained" it it makes even less sense!

There aren't "additional" seats. Basis opened 135 seats in the lottery, matched 135 on lottery day and appears to still be intending to fill those seats. Your post also assumes a static process and not one in motion. Basis has been pulling from the WL for weeks (as have other schools) once the enrollment deadline passed. Your post might have made sense as an observation of how many of the 135 who matched enrolled as of May 2, but you posted this on 5/31. Finally, you know NOTHING about waitlist data and movements if you think any school fills open slots off the waitlist on a 1 for 1 basis. My guess is that is even less likely at Basis which is a very specific school profile that people may rethink once they actually match. We know this because anecdotal reports from DCUM have the Basis WL having already moved 30+ slots.

Other than that, however, your post makes total sense.