Is college admissions going to be way easier for kids 5th/6th grade and under?

[Anonymous]

I recently read an article about how there's a "demographic cliff" for college admissions where way fewer kids will be applying in 2026 and beyond. This is actually something I'd heard of before but never seen it all laid out in this particular way—i.e. if your kids are younger than 6th grade, they might end up hugely benefitting when it comes their time to apply to college. I will note that this doesn't apply to elite schools (no one seems to be saying in 2026 it will suddenly be easy to get into Harvard), but regardless... Has anyone heard about this/have any thoughts on whether it's legit?

[Anonymous]

I wouldn't count on it.

[Anonymous]

Lol, fabulous.

I currently have
-college sophmore
-high school senior
-high school sophmore
-8th grader.

So my kids will all have to work their butts off to get into mediocre schools.
Meanwhile my siblings with kids who are currently in pre-school-3rd grade, will be able to just skate their way into HPYS and gloat about how superior their kids are...

[Anonymous]

“Elite” in this context means basically the top ~100. Schools that are competitive now won’t be any less so in a decade or two. Sorry.

[Anonymous]

Many schools will go under between now and then.

[Anonymous]

Lol, I have a high school junior...and a 5th grader, AKA the only audience who'd be reading about college admissions but still cares about this 2026 demographic cliff. FWIW it doesn't look like it's going to affect the HYSPs of the world, but it does say tuition will likely be frozen which would be great: https://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/how-will-the-upcoming-demographic-cliff-impact-admissions/

[Anonymous]

It's true for good state schools for sure. I have seen internal projections

[Anonymous]

State schools having easier admissions would be a godsend.

[Anonymous]

No, harder.

[Anonymous]

Why do you think it will be harder?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why do you think it will be harder?

Intwrnwtional students.

[Anonymous]

In my case, I've noticed that things are shifting between my 2019 and my 2026. A lot more kids in 6th grade care about school achievement, prepping, building a resume, etc. vs. the class of 2019.

[Anonymous]

That's true, do you think the article or the Higher Education Index are taking into account that today's 6th graders are going to be going to high school in a very different environment than say ten years ago? It is much more competitive, much more college prep in my experience.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's true for good state schools for sure. I have seen internal projections

+1 I work at one and this is a primary focus for strategic planning.

[Anonymous]

Yes, and I think more than a few colleges will go out of business between now and then. We made sure to check out the endowments for the colleges our DC applied to this year.