Please explain no deal Brexit to me.

[Anonymous]

Can someone explain Brexit to me like I am in fourth grade?

I understand what the EU is.
I understand there was a referendum and the British people voted to leave the EU.

Why did they want to leave the EU?

What I really don't understand is "deal or no deal". Didn't they have an outlinei in the agreements when they formed the EU, how that divorce happens? A prenup if you will?

So "deal" Brexit is Britain negotiates for some stuff they want in leaving the EU, right?

What is "no deal" Brexit and what are the consequences to Britain?

Thanks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain Brexit to me like I am in fourth grade?

I understand what the EU is.
I understand there was a referendum and the British people voted to leave the EU.

Why did they want to leave the EU?

What I really don't understand is "deal or no deal". Didn't they have an outlinei in the agreements when they formed the EU, how that divorce happens? A prenup if you will?

So "deal" Brexit is Britain negotiates for some stuff they want in leaving the EU, right?

What is "no deal" Brexit and what are the consequences to Britain?

Thanks.

Yes, article 50 is the exit strategy. The "no deal" Brexit will destroy the British economy because of the European supply chains. Further, the common boarders with Ireland and to a lesser extent, Scotland would be problematic to enforce. The whole thing was a manipulation by Putin to divide both England and the EU and weaken the G7. There was never a plan to a smooth exit, but this was never discussed or disclosed to the voters. It is sort of like how Mexico was supposed to pay for the wall but now US servicemembers are.

[Anonymous]

I found this helpful.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46318565

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain Brexit to me like I am in fourth grade?

I understand what the EU is.
I understand there was a referendum and the British people voted to leave the EU.

Why did they want to leave the EU?

What I really don't understand is "deal or no deal". Didn't they have an outlinei in the agreements when they formed the EU, how that divorce happens? A prenup if you will?

So "deal" Brexit is Britain negotiates for some stuff they want in leaving the EU, right?

What is "no deal" Brexit and what are the consequences to Britain?

Thanks.

Yes, article 50 is the exit strategy. The "no deal" Brexit will destroy the British economy because of the European supply chains. Further, the common boarders with Ireland and to a lesser extent, Scotland would be problematic to enforce. The whole thing was a manipulation by Putin to divide both England and the EU and weaken the G7. There was never a plan to a smooth exit, but this was never discussed or disclosed to the voters. It is sort of like how Mexico was supposed to pay for the wall but now US servicemembers are.

OK, now that the Brits understand that no deal brexit will destroy their economy, why don't they have another referendum?

And why did they want to leave in the first place? Xenophobia?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
OK, now that the Brits understand that no deal brexit will destroy their economy, why don't they have another referendum?

And why did they want to leave in the first place? Xenophobia?

Per my spouse who is from the UK:

1. EU began over reaching, in some cases, mandating ridiculous things, like...
2. UK is the premier destination for EU citizens from poorer countries. EU mandated that UK must provide social welfare to any EU citizen from day one. If it wasn't for this mandate, I don't think UK citizens would've been so anti-immigrant

The British people are very stiff upper lip and are willing to handle some difficulties, a bit like some Americans here who are willing to suffer for a trade war (of course, many of those are getting large subsidies from tax payers so, of course they don't mind as much). They also don't think that it will be as bad as some experts say it will. But, I think there is an element of ostrich going on here (head in the sand).

When a large bank in the UK stated that they were going to move operations to the mainland, along with many high paying jobs, many pro Brexiters thought it was just bluster. Then when the bank actually picked up and moved, these same folks were shocked and angry, saying, "I didn't think they'd actually do it.. how dare they", as if the primary purpose of a company was to employ UK citizens and not maximize profits.

[Anonymous]

This is old, from 2018, but I think it still does a nice job explaining all of the options and why:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eoDwvl0QGk

[Anonymous]

A no-deal Brexit will mean that the UK will leave the EU without any kind of trade deal in place, which means it will default to WTO trade regulations. Right now, as part of the EU, trade can move fairly freely between the UK and the rest of the EU without facing tariffs, customs inspections, etc. People also can move freely between EU countries, including residing in and obtaining employment in other countries without onerous visa requirements (which helps a lot with labor markets). Same for service industries -- law firms can operate across multiple EU countries, insurance can be sold across EU countries, etc. without excessive regulation.

If there is a no-deal Brexit, there will immediately be tariffs put into place on all goods moving between the UK to the EU. All trade goods will be subject to inspections, which will create bottlenecks in trade ports. Services will stop flowing between the UK and the EU. UK citizens who currently live/work in other parts of the EU would lose their right to do so (and vice versa). The UK has said they would immediately get rid of tariffs and other restrictions on goods coming into the UK from the EU, but there's no guarantee that the EU would do the same for UK goods. So a no-deal Brexit could result in sudden shortages of things like food and fuel (and a host of other goods), skyrocketing prices for imported goods, labor shortages, etc. The UK will have every incentive to make a deal with the UK, but the UK has a whole lot of incentives not to make a deal with the UK.

Also, there's the Irish border (which I don't understand as well, so if I get this wrong, someone correct me). Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are two separate countries and for a long time had no formal relations at all. Over the past 30 years, though, they have re-established ties, and while they still exist as two separate countries, in many ways they effectively act as one (and there are significant cultural attachments to acting as one), and they operate with effectively open borders. Northern Ireland is part of the UK, though, while the Republic of Ireland is not. So if the UK leaves Brexit without a deal that would allow Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to maintain their open border, it would sever the two nations again, which is something the Irish would be very upset about. There is some speculation that Northern Ireland would attempt to leave the UK if this happens to re-establish ties with the Republic of Ireland.

Also, Scotland was a very hard no on Brexit, even during the original referendum. There's always some level of agitation for Scotland to leave the UK, but not that serious. If the UK goes no-deal Brexit, however, some are speculating that Scotland might actually initiate a secession from the UK.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain Brexit to me like I am in fourth grade?

I understand what the EU is.
I understand there was a referendum and the British people voted to leave the EU.

Why did they want to leave the EU?

What I really don't understand is "deal or no deal". Didn't they have an outlinei in the agreements when they formed the EU, how that divorce happens? A prenup if you will?

So "deal" Brexit is Britain negotiates for some stuff they want in leaving the EU, right?

What is "no deal" Brexit and what are the consequences to Britain?

Thanks.

Yes, article 50 is the exit strategy. The "no deal" Brexit will destroy the British economy because of the European supply chains. Further, the common boarders with Ireland and to a lesser extent, Scotland would be problematic to enforce. The whole thing was a manipulation by Putin to divide both England and the EU and weaken the G7. There was never a plan to a smooth exit, but this was never discussed or disclosed to the voters. It is sort of like how Mexico was supposed to pay for the wall but now US servicemembers are.

It may cause some disruptions but these type of things work themselves out pretty quickly. The markets adjust and people adapt.

[Anonymous]

No, there is no "pre-nup" in the EU treaty. There are also no successor organizations that have been created on the UK side. Therefore all cross border activities will be forced to stop almost immediately if no deal becaus of practical nuts and bolts compliance issues (things as basic as shipping pallets won't be in compliance).

The referendum campaign wasn't very detailed and people on the proEU side didn't take it seriously enough. It's very much like the Obamacare repeal stuff with the border wall politics.

EU freedom of movement has led to a lot of Poles, Greeks, etc "immigrating" to the UK.

The issue does not cleanly break down along party lines and the ruling party does not have a majority (they needed a coalition with a N. Irish party to form the government and lost their 1 vote majority when a conservative MP crossed over to the LibDems last week). This is complicated by a proBrexit tea party-esque faction within the Conservative Party.

In other words. 1) the practical logistics have been ignored in favor of rhetoric 2) the math requires compromise but the politics requires no compromise and 3) the consequences of the referendum were not fully thought through but the vote was the vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain Brexit to me like I am in fourth grade?

I understand what the EU is.
I understand there was a referendum and the British people voted to leave the EU.

Why did they want to leave the EU?

What I really don't understand is "deal or no deal". Didn't they have an outlinei in the agreements when they formed the EU, how that divorce happens? A prenup if you will?

So "deal" Brexit is Britain negotiates for some stuff they want in leaving the EU, right?

What is "no deal" Brexit and what are the consequences to Britain?

Thanks.

Yes, article 50 is the exit strategy. The "no deal" Brexit will destroy the British economy because of the European supply chains. Further, the common boarders with Ireland and to a lesser extent, Scotland would be problematic to enforce. The whole thing was a manipulation by Putin to divide both England and the EU and weaken the G7. There was never a plan to a smooth exit, but this was never discussed or disclosed to the voters. It is sort of like how Mexico was supposed to pay for the wall but now US servicemembers are.

It may cause some disruptions but these type of things work themselves out pretty quickly. The markets adjust and people adapt.

These are the types of simplistic, bold faced lies that caused Brexit.

They will not work themselves out quickly. Something like 70% of the items in UK grocery stores are from the EU. Those items will not be restocked quickly. Similarly, the price of those items will go up. Essentially, Brexit will be a large tax increase on UK citizens.

[Anonymous]

Why did they vote no on Theresa May’s deal?

How can Boris Johnson kick people out of his party? (Winston Churchill’s grandson)

[Anonymous]

The Ireland stuff is complicated because the Good Friday peace deal relies on an EU border to finesse the underlying issues.. If EU border rules are left in place for N. Ireland then the proUK side is screwed. If EU borders are scrapped then the proIreland side is screwed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain Brexit to me like I am in fourth grade?

I understand what the EU is.
I understand there was a referendum and the British people voted to leave the EU.

Why did they want to leave the EU?

What I really don't understand is "deal or no deal". Didn't they have an outlinei in the agreements when they formed the EU, how that divorce happens? A prenup if you will?

So "deal" Brexit is Britain negotiates for some stuff they want in leaving the EU, right?

What is "no deal" Brexit and what are the consequences to Britain?

Thanks.

The people of UK wanted to leave the EU in order to regain their sovereignty. There was considerable frustration among the UK people feeling that they have relinquished some of their rights to self-determination to a supranational governing body that is not accountable to them. I'm not here to debate whether this feeling is justified but to point out that this was frustrating enough for them to call for a referendum, and vote to leave the EU.

There was no outline of how a divorce will happen in the EU articles - no prenup. The only thing that Article 50 says is that a member state may decide to leave the EU. What the deal/no-deal refers to, is the set of agreements and procedures that would result in an orderly exit by UK from the EU. This is multifaceted, involving many issues such as the status of non-UK citizens inside UK, winding down of various financial commitments and obligations, the status of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and the biggie: the trade agreement between UK and the EU. Remember that one of the key features of the EU is that it establishes a free trade zone among all member states. If a member state withdraws from the EU, then it would lose the benefit of being within that free trade zone. Therefore, UK seeks to establish a trade deal with the EU, or the at least the terms of negotiating such a trade deal, prior to it finalizing its exit from the EU. The alternative is that UK leaves without establishing a trade deal, therefore "no deal", which would result in the UK-EU trade deal being default WTO terms. Presumably, if such an event were to pass, UK would then hold ensuing negotiations with the EU much like how the US negotiate trade deals with the EU.

Long term consequences of a no-deal Brexit is small. Just as the EU trades extensively with non-EU nations, there is nothing that prevents EU from trading with the UK after Brexit. It's not as if trade between UK and EU will just cease to exist or dwindle to some insignificant amount. Short term consequences, however, are severe. The business community thrives on stability and predictability. A no-deal Brexit will shift UK to trade with the EU on WTO terms, with no predictable time table for reaching a new negotiated result. Trade terms have significant effects on the planning and scheduling of not just production and hiring, but also capital investments, supply chain, etc. The short term uncertainty will be very painful and result in economic inefficiencies both inside UK and EU. Coupled with a slowing global economic outlook, this is not a good time to inject additional chaos into the system.

There are some dynamics at play here, of course:

1. Both EU and UK want a deal. A no-deal Brexit is not good for either.
2. EU cannot give UK a good deal, because it would cause other member states to consider leaving the EU.
3. UK needs the no-deal option on the table as leverage to extract as good a deal as it can from the EU.

My prediction:

UK will leave without a deal, but with the promise of a deal, and the EU will move quickly to cooperate with UK to establish a deal post-Brexit to minimize economic damage. The UK will suffer significant economic turmoil in 2-3 years following Brexit, but ultimately regain their footing. Other EU nations will ponder leaving the EU, but the EU governing body in Brussels will have enacted changes in the meantime that gives more control to member states.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why did they vote no on Theresa May’s deal?

How can Boris Johnson kick people out of his party? (Winston Churchill’s grandson)

Because May's deal leaves the Irish border open (which requires N. Ireland to comply with EU rules). This effectively separates N. Ireland from the UK and led the DUP to vote against. Moreover, the Hardline Brexiteers didn't think there was enough Brexit in the deal. Meanwhile a significant portion of the Conservative party doesn't support Leave at all. Basically there aren't enough votes for any deal except for a Norway like arrangement which the EU won't do (because they are afraid more countries would exit if that happened).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain Brexit to me like I am in fourth grade?

I understand what the EU is.
I understand there was a referendum and the British people voted to leave the EU.

Why did they want to leave the EU?

What I really don't understand is "deal or no deal". Didn't they have an outlinei in the agreements when they formed the EU, how that divorce happens? A prenup if you will?

So "deal" Brexit is Britain negotiates for some stuff they want in leaving the EU, right?

What is "no deal" Brexit and what are the consequences to Britain?

Thanks.

The people of UK wanted to leave the EU in order to regain their sovereignty. There was considerable frustration among the UK people feeling that they have relinquished some of their rights to self-determination to a supranational governing body that is not accountable to them. I'm not here to debate whether this feeling is justified but to point out that this was frustrating enough for them to call for a referendum, and vote to leave the EU.

There was no outline of how a divorce will happen in the EU articles - no prenup. The only thing that Article 50 says is that a member state may decide to leave the EU. What the deal/no-deal refers to, is the set of agreements and procedures that would result in an orderly exit by UK from the EU. This is multifaceted, involving many issues such as the status of non-UK citizens inside UK, winding down of various financial commitments and obligations, the status of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and the biggie: the trade agreement between UK and the EU. Remember that one of the key features of the EU is that it establishes a free trade zone among all member states. If a member state withdraws from the EU, then it would lose the benefit of being within that free trade zone. Therefore, UK seeks to establish a trade deal with the EU, or the at least the terms of negotiating such a trade deal, prior to it finalizing its exit from the EU. The alternative is that UK leaves without establishing a trade deal, therefore "no deal", which would result in the UK-EU trade deal being default WTO terms. Presumably, if such an event were to pass, UK would then hold ensuing negotiations with the EU much like how the US negotiate trade deals with the EU.

Long term consequences of a no-deal Brexit is small. Just as the EU trades extensively with non-EU nations, there is nothing that prevents EU from trading with the UK after Brexit. It's not as if trade between UK and EU will just cease to exist or dwindle to some insignificant amount. Short term consequences, however, are severe. The business community thrives on stability and predictability. A no-deal Brexit will shift UK to trade with the EU on WTO terms, with no predictable time table for reaching a new negotiated result. Trade terms have significant effects on the planning and scheduling of not just production and hiring, but also capital investments, supply chain, etc. The short term uncertainty will be very painful and result in economic inefficiencies both inside UK and EU. Coupled with a slowing global economic outlook, this is not a good time to inject additional chaos into the system.

There are some dynamics at play here, of course:

1. Both EU and UK want a deal. A no-deal Brexit is not good for either.
2. EU cannot give UK a good deal, because it would cause other member states to consider leaving the EU.
3. UK needs the no-deal option on the table as leverage to extract as good a deal as it can from the EU.

My prediction:

UK will leave without a deal, but with the promise of a deal, and the EU will move quickly to cooperate with UK to establish a deal post-Brexit to minimize economic damage. The UK will suffer significant economic turmoil in 2-3 years following Brexit, but ultimately regain their footing. Other EU nations will ponder leaving the EU, but the EU governing body in Brussels will have enacted changes in the meantime that gives more control to member states.

and Scotland leaves UK and joins EU during those 2-3 years. same for N. Ireland