s/o How far will prices drop in MoCO?

[Anonymous]

This is a spin off from the exodus in Montgomery County thread. What is the best way to protect against over spending in MoCo and not getting stuck with a house that is worth even less than what you bought it for in several or many years later?

Is it best to wait 1-2 years and see how far prices drop? Is it better to wait until winter and just submit really low ball offers until someone accepts and hope that you bought below market enough to stay above water? Avoid the area all together?

[Anonymous]

Did you start that thread?

No one is going to take a low ball offer because some cranks on an i ternet forum think MoCo is going downhill.

[Anonymous]

We are in Bethesda and aren't seeing prices drop. MoCo is a big place - where are you looking?

[Anonymous]

Did you start that thread?

No one is going to take a low ball offer because some cranks on an i ternet forum think MoCo is going downhill.

No, I did not start the other thread. You really believe that MOCO is doing as well as NOVA or DC???

Yes there are tons of houses sitting all over. Potomac, Rockville, North Potomac, Gaithersburg, Darnestown, Silver Spring, Wheaton.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is a spin off from the exodus in Montgomery County thread. What is the best way to protect against over spending in MoCo and not getting stuck with a house that is worth even less than what you bought it for in several or many years later?

Is it best to wait 1-2 years and see how far prices drop? Is it better to wait until winter and just submit really low ball offers until someone accepts and hope that you bought below market enough to stay above water? Avoid the area all together?

If you are worried that Montgomery County will become the South Bronx c. 1970s in the next few years, then you should rent.

[Anonymous]

How home prices in Prince George’s, Montgomery counties compare to DC
https://wtop.com/business-finance/2019/07/where-around-washington-homes-cost-half-what-they-do-in-d-c/

[Anonymous]

Actually, people in our neighborhood who had their act together and listed by June (Silver Spring / Glenmont) sold immediately. The houses that just listed in July/ August who are asking for too high prices are the ones sitting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Did you start that thread?

No one is going to take a low ball offer because some cranks on an i ternet forum think MoCo is going downhill.

No, I did not start the other thread. You really believe that MOCO is doing as well as NOVA or DC???

Yes there are tons of houses sitting all over. Potomac, Rockville, North Potomac, Gaithersburg, Darnestown, Silver Spring, Wheaton.

I think it’s almost impossible to do an apples to apples comparison of “MoCo” to “NoVa” or DC. Most of the time people cherrypick a house in Arlington and compare it to a house in Rockville. I don’t think houses near transit inside the beltway have done worse in MoCo than in Va. DC is also not easily comparable given gentrification.

If you are asking where is likely the area with greatest potential for real estate appreciation, then I agree it’s probably not Bethesda, but that’s very different from saying what should I do about the impending crash in MoCo real estate values.

[Anonymous]

Montgomery county population continues to increase. The number of jobs also increases. We have an population growing faster than the construction of housing at the moment. People complaining are focused on a generally older population in Potomac or Bethesda. The rest of the county is surging in population.

[Anonymous]

Montgomery county population continues to increase. The number of jobs also increases. We have an population growing faster than the construction of housing at the moment. People complaining are focused on a generally older population in Potomac or Bethesda. The rest of the county is surging in population.

There is a hefty sized retiree population throughout Rockville and Silver Spring. The concern about the retiree bubble in Potomac and Bethesda is that they take the tax revenue with them when they leave. The other retirees just flood the real estate market.

The population growth does not seem to match the type of housing being built. The luxury condos in Bethesda are having a hard time selling. The high end townhouses up at Crown are not selling for anywhere near what the developers hoped he would make.

There is a demand for SFH below 700K in good school districts but that type of housing is not being built.

[Anonymous]

I’m in Potomac and houses are selling before they are even on the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Montgomery county population continues to increase. The number of jobs also increases. We have an population growing faster than the construction of housing at the moment. People complaining are focused on a generally older population in Potomac or Bethesda. The rest of the county is surging in population.

There is a hefty sized retiree population throughout Rockville and Silver Spring. The concern about the retiree bubble in Potomac and Bethesda is that they take the tax revenue with them when they leave. The other retirees just flood the real estate market.

The population growth does not seem to match the type of housing being built. The luxury condos in Bethesda are having a hard time selling. The high end townhouses up at Crown are not selling for anywhere near what the developers hoped he would make.

There is a demand for SFH below 700K in good school districts but that type of housing is not being built.

Other than the Lauren, which was ridiculous, what isn't selling in Bethesda? And if it isn't selling, why do companies keep wanting to build more?

[Anonymous]

Seriously, this hand-wringing and narrative of MoCo in decline needs to stop. Are there other areas growing faster? Yes. Is MoCo shrinking or is there really an exodus? No, and the data shows it. The GCAAR website offers free reports directly from contracts signed and then closed in the county. Here is the June report:

https://gcaar.com/docs/default-source/montgomery-county-market-reports/gcaar-mc-housing-market-update---june-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=2432cd93_2

The report is fairly clear:

- stable if not slightly higher prices than one year ago ~1.6% higher
- lower overall closed sales than June 2018 BUT higher contracts pending than one year ago, should even out by end of July or August
- less inventory on market, you cannot sell what is not there

My read on this is that the market is not quite as strong as 2016, when units were higher, but prices are still increasing and inventory is lower than that time period.

This is not a report that suggests imminent doom. Sorry.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Montgomery county population continues to increase. The number of jobs also increases. We have an population growing faster than the construction of housing at the moment. People complaining are focused on a generally older population in Potomac or Bethesda. The rest of the county is surging in population.


There is a hefty sized retiree population throughout Rockville and Silver Spring. The concern about the retiree bubble in Potomac and Bethesda is that they take the tax revenue with them when they leave. The other retirees just flood the real estate market.

The population growth does not seem to match the type of housing being built. The luxury condos in Bethesda are having a hard time selling. The high end townhouses up at Crown are not selling for anywhere near what the developers hoped he would make.

There is a demand for SFH below 700K in good school districts but that type of housing is not being built.


Other than the Lauren, which was ridiculous, what isn't selling in Bethesda? And if it isn't selling, why do companies keep wanting to build more?

I can search for it later tonight but there was even an article that the luxury condos in Bethesda are struggling. They are targeted at wealthy Potomac residents downsizing but the Potomac residents are not selling their houses for as much as they thought they would sell them and don't see the value in paying that much for a condo. They are going into DC or moving out of the area instead.

I have no idea why the development companies keep building houses that are more expensive than the market. Maybe they have a wide margin and its safer to shoot high with enough margin to still make a profit if they sell lower than to build more modest houses at lower price points.

[Anonymous]

PP, where exactly is your data on all this? This is a lot of interesting opinion, I am just wondering where it shows up in the data? Where does it say people are not getting enough for their homes in Potomac and do not like the condos in Bethesda? How do we know for example, that there is not simply an oversupply of condos being built in Bethesda as developers rushed into a good market and to beat the moratorium? When at least 10 buildings go up of at least 12 stories within a couple years, doesn't that seem like an excessive amount of supply?

I would not reference the Lauren as anything other than a boutique item. It's like forming an opinion on the NY housing market from the Hamptons sales. The people buying in the Lauren are a small group in the larger data.