s/o How far will prices drop in MoCO?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And also that folks in MoCo only own one house? I also own a condo in NY. I also owned a house in NY till recently and my MoCo home.

Most folks on my block own a few homes. One guy owns 3 crap rental properties in Arlington he bought 10-25 years ago and rents out. However, did not want to live there.

Yep. I own a condo in CO, fully paid for and not rented. Here we have over 1/5 of our home paid off.And I own a place in Europe, in the priciest part of my hometown! And I am among the poorest of my MoCo friends. I know a lot of people in MoCo that own at least one vacation home in addition to their house here. I know a family that has a great mansion in Brookeville and 12! I kid you not 12 rental properties in the DMV, spread all over, may in NoVa. And these are not their main jobs either! Side gig in addition to regular office jobs.

Bubble times are here again! That's a tower of real estate waiting to collapse.

[Anonymous]

I follow real estate in 20815, 20895 and 20814 very closely. What I see is more of a correction - people aren’t getting away with selling shit shacks for astronomical prices any more. Prices have come down to earth, a bit.

Basically, anything under $1.2 million that isn’t horrid sells quickly. Houses over that tend to linger unless they are great houses and/or in a great location. So, there’s really not much of a drop in those markets, just buyers less willing to put up with overpriced crap.

[Anonymous]

I found a government HUD document that provided data on MoCo and Frederick separating them by sub market. It was really interesting.

In the MoCo sub market during 2009 and 2010 MoCo real estate dropped in value 9% each year so an 18% drop. In addition, 29% of the homes sales were foreclosure or REO which the report identifies as selling for 45% less than non-distressed properties.

So if you bought a house in SS in 2010, your house had already lost 20%-65%. Since SS had a higher portion of REOs chances are you bought very, very low.

What I think is interesting is that many people in western MoCo think that home prices never really dropped very much in MoCo. TBH, I never knew housing values in this area dropped to this degree. I thought like everyone else that this area was more protected because everyone worked for the government.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I found a government HUD document that provided data on MoCo and Frederick separating them by sub market. It was really interesting.

In the MoCo sub market during 2009 and 2010 MoCo real estate dropped in value 9% each year so an 18% drop. In addition, 29% of the homes sales were foreclosure or REO which the report identifies as selling for 45% less than non-distressed properties.

So if you bought a house in SS in 2010, your house had already lost 20%-65%. Since SS had a higher portion of REOs chances are you bought very, very low.

What I think is interesting is that many people in western MoCo think that home prices never really dropped very much in MoCo. TBH, I never knew housing values in this area dropped to this degree. I thought like everyone else that this area was more protected because everyone worked for the government.

"Silver Spring" covers most of the east county. Burtonsville, Aspen Hill, and DTSS are all Silver Spring, but very different housing markets.

[Anonymous]

DTSS is the strongest of the SS markets and it was VERY hard hit in 2009 and 2010.

[Anonymous]

Again, for people who would like actual data, it is all on the GCAAR site - real facts, not opinions. Just in June the average sales price in MoCo was up 1.6% from a year ago. Closed unit sales were down 7% but pending sales are up over 6%. Inventory down 2%. This is across all types of units - detached homes, apartments, etc.

And since many people focus on detached single-family as opposed to apartments and townhomes, here is the detached single home data only:

Closed sales 814 vs 823 a year ago, pending sales 808 vs 723 a year ago, big increase in pending sales.

For people tired of juvenile opinions without real data, here is a source:

https://gcaar.com/docs/default-source/montgomery-county-market-reports/gcaar-mc-housing-market-update---june-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=2432cd93_2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Again, for people who would like actual data, it is all on the GCAAR site - real facts, not opinions. Just in June the average sales price in MoCo was up 1.6% from a year ago. Closed unit sales were down 7% but pending sales are up over 6%. Inventory down 2%. This is across all types of units - detached homes, apartments, etc.

And since many people focus on detached single-family as opposed to apartments and townhomes, here is the detached single home data only:

Closed sales 814 vs 823 a year ago, pending sales 808 vs 723 a year ago, big increase in pending sales.

For people tired of juvenile opinions without real data, here is a source:

https://gcaar.com/docs/default-source/montgomery-county-market-reports/gcaar-mc-housing-market-update---june-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=2432cd93_2

I posted a link to the GCAAR reports a while ago, and the response was that nobody believes data from realtors, they make it all up.

[Anonymous]

That's right PP, and there are no actual contracts to verify, just handshakes ha ha! Every time someone posts non-sense about one area or any other, a group of people will be there with real data!

[Anonymous]

I would trust HUD data over realtor data any day of the week. Realtor Associations work hard to hype up the markets. Time to buy, buy, buy or list, list, list, list. Its very scammy in how many realtors pull their data with all the DOM delisting tricks. I get realtor flyers all the time with sold at list price. Well, the sold at list price was after the shortest DOM window and the new price was a big drop preceded by the house being on the market for 1-2 previous seasons with multiple price drops.

Realtors won't show you 2007 or 2008 numbers, they want you to see the 2010 data and think wow the market is growing, I better get in now. The other scammy thing that seems to be happening a lot in Potomac is that realtors are encouraging or not informing sellers that the prices are not what they paid 15 years ago. The houses are either sitting and being forced to price drop and chase the market or if they do get lucky and snag an uninformed the buyer then the house doesn't appraise. In Potomac, realtors will tell sellers anything they want to hear to get the listing contract.

[Anonymous]

I notice once again PP does not have any data, just opinion. Troll.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DTSS is the strongest of the SS markets and it was VERY hard hit in 2009 and 2010.

But not anywhere near as hard hit as the exurbs like Germantown and Montgomery Village. Applying countywide data to every house in the county does not work at all. DC lost a few jobs in the Great Recession, but not as great a percentage as Rochester and Akron.

[Anonymous]

It will be so bad that gangs will just show up and kick you out of your CC and Potomac houses. Flee now! That is rock bottom, no?