Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth

[Anonymous]

This came out today:

https://ggwash.org/view/71802/can-dcps-survive-the-coming-enrollment-surge

If the numbers are accurate this is a big story. I'm surprised it hasn't gotten coverage elsewhere yet.

[Anonymous]

It's been discussed extensively here, especially by WOTP parents who are concerned about overcrowding.

As for the rest of the news media, projections aren't by definition news. What is news is when something happens. This would be cited as part of a broader story on cuts / increases to the capital budget for schools

[Anonymous]

So do the WOTP parents that are trying to boot Lafayette and Shepherd know that Coolidge expects to be overcrowded and Roosevelt is slated to be MORE overcrowded than Wilson? It's apparent that either WOTP needs to be bused to Dunbar, a new middle and high need to be placed WOTP, or they need to get rid of assigned schools for 6-12th.

Also, Lafayette, Murch, and Janny are just too large. They need another elementary WOTP as well. 1200 kids at Lafayette is just crazy!

[Anonymous]

Wow this article is so clueless.

[Anonymous]

What GGW does not grasp is that all of these numbers are typical DCPS gobbledygook and cannot be taken seriously. Yes some areas are overcrowded but on a more detailed level this is all crap data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What GGW does not grasp is that all of these numbers are typical DCPS gobbledygook and cannot be taken seriously. Yes some areas are overcrowded but on a more detailed level this is all crap data.

Yes and no. The population projections themselves come from Office of Planning, which if anything has proven to be conservative over the past ten years. Taking the projections and assigning them out to individual schools was done by the DME staff. You might argue about how many kids they put at each school, but they had to account for every kid in the projections. Note that they've got DCPS growing more slowly than the youth population as a whole and charters and privates taking up the slack in unexplained ways, yet still DCPS ends up full. I think that's the real story.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wow this article is so clueless.

how so?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow this article is so clueless.

how so?

Because parents will never accept pure lottery, and it is not logistically feasible for people even if they liked it philosophically. The tide is turning against it as San Francisco's experience has shown.

Because someone with a clue would know that DCPS numbers are guesses at best and lies at worst. Not just the enrollment projections, but the capacity stats, are really questionable.

Because if you compare these numbers with the enrollment projections in the SY 19-20 budgets, they don't match up well.

Because DCPS can and does add capacity, e.v. Van Ness, Bard, Brookland Middle, Wells Middle. And opening new middle and high schools can result in capacity increases in other grade levels.

[Anonymous]

This thread discusses all of these issues, including the projects that the GGW story is based on.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/800079.page

[Anonymous]

The article makes clear that DCPS will require strong leadership to make practical decisions. Redistricting is a no-brainer, but the whole mess of politicians has been too timid to make the obvious decisions.

The article points out that Charters have been helpful, which implies that more charters would be more helpful. Why not rent out a vacant DCPS building or two to charter shcools, so they can run the show? There are lots of possibilities.

[Anonymous]

DCPS has to develop a better method for evaluating residency. They should develop software that will check all enrollment against tax records, DMV, and SNAP benefits. Any address discrepancies are thoroughly evaluated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow this article is so clueless.

how so?

Because parents will never accept pure lottery, and it is not logistically feasible for people even if they liked it philosophically. The tide is turning against it as San Francisco's experience has shown.

Because someone with a clue would know that DCPS numbers are guesses at best and lies at worst. Not just the enrollment projections, but the capacity stats, are really questionable.

Because if you compare these numbers with the enrollment projections in the SY 19-20 budgets, they don't match up well.

Because DCPS can and does add capacity, e.v. Van Ness, Bard, Brookland Middle, Wells Middle. And opening new middle and high schools can result in capacity increases in other grade levels.

Per the article - DC might be particularly ripe for an all-lottery system because its neighborhood-based system isn’t particularly strong – already three quarters of the public school students attend schools they were assigned to by lottery, either charters or DCPS out-of-boundary. For them, DC already doesn’t have a neighborhood-based school system.

You may be the lucky 1 in 4 that is not dependent on the lottery, but it will not be a huge switch in culture/expectations for 75%.

[Anonymous]

Isn't the author of this leading the Save Old Hardy cmte?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow this article is so clueless.

how so?

Because parents will never accept pure lottery, and it is not logistically feasible for people even if they liked it philosophically. The tide is turning against it as San Francisco's experience has shown.

Because someone with a clue would know that DCPS numbers are guesses at best and lies at worst. Not just the enrollment projections, but the capacity stats, are really questionable.

Because if you compare these numbers with the enrollment projections in the SY 19-20 budgets, they don't match up well.

Because DCPS can and does add capacity, e.v. Van Ness, Bard, Brookland Middle, Wells Middle. And opening new middle and high schools can result in capacity increases in other grade levels.

Per the article - DC might be particularly ripe for an all-lottery system because its neighborhood-based system isn’t particularly strong – already three quarters of the public school students attend schools they were assigned to by lottery, either charters or DCPS out-of-boundary. For them, DC already doesn’t have a neighborhood-based school system.

You may be the lucky 1 in 4 that is not dependent on the lottery, but it will not be a huge switch in culture/expectations for 75%.

No way. My IB is a one-star school but a lottery system might force me somewhere that is even worse, and with a bad commute. It would be a huge change for me and it would destroy people's willingness to invest in the school prior to enrolling.

[Anonymous]

The existence of charter schools is the main reason why many neighborhood schools are under-enrolled. The logical next step is to expand charters, or re-zone, or both; not imposition of a lottery system across the board.