Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DCPS has to develop a better method for evaluating residency. They should develop software that will check all enrollment against tax records, DMV, and SNAP benefits. Any address discrepancies are thoroughly evaluated.

You mean like the OSSE/OTR website that doesn't have its security credentials properly registered?

ossedctax.com

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The existence of charter schools is the main reason why many neighborhood schools are under-enrolled. The logical next step is to expand charters, or re-zone, or both; not imposition of a lottery system across the board.

Your first sentence is historically incorrect. DCPS enrollment had been dropping precipitously for over 30 years before the first charter school opened.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow this article is so clueless.

how so?

Because parents will never accept pure lottery, and it is not logistically feasible for people even if they liked it philosophically. The tide is turning against it as San Francisco's experience has shown.

Because someone with a clue would know that DCPS numbers are guesses at best and lies at worst. Not just the enrollment projections, but the capacity stats, are really questionable.

Because if you compare these numbers with the enrollment projections in the SY 19-20 budgets, they don't match up well.

Because DCPS can and does add capacity, e.v. Van Ness, Bard, Brookland Middle, Wells Middle. And opening new middle and high schools can result in capacity increases in other grade levels.

Hi, this is Nick Keenan, the article's author.

I made a conscious decision not to question the projections for the article. I realize that DCPS capacity numbers are built on a shaky foundation at best, and that the assignment of future growth to specific schools is conjecture. The reason I left that out is that it doesn't really change the underlying story. The population projections come from Office of Planning, they have a history of being conservative, and their 5-10 year projections are based on housing and current demographics, which means that the projections are based largely on houses that have already been built and kids that have already been born. In the article I hint at several ways the projections may actually be too low.

The underlying story is that for 50 years DCPS hasn't really had to worry about facilities, at least not about expanding them. Unpack this sentence for a bit: "Even though DC has gained over 22,000 public school students since 2008, and between 2008 and 2013 DCPS shrunk from 134 to 110 schools, the number of seats still exceeds the number of students by about 25%." DCPS has 13,000 empty seats even though it just closed 24 schools and the city just finished adding 22,000 students? WTF? How many empty seats did it have ten years ago? 30,000? But we are on the cusp of a historical break. For the first time in 60 years DCPS has to think about capacity.

The things that have worked in the past few decades just aren't going to work any more. There is a reason that DCPS hasn't made more than minor boundary adjustments in almost 50 years. Boundaries don't really matter when you've got tens of thousands of empty seats and three quarters of the kids assigned by lottery anyway.

As to the comment, "parents will never accept pure lottery," what do you propose instead? Take the example of Lafayette from the article -- "projected to have 1,167 students in a building with a capacity for 805. However, the seven closest elementary schools to Lafayette will all also be over capacity, by a combined 853 students." It's not a simple case of moving a line from one slightly overcrowded school toward a neighboring one with capacity. All those kids need to go somewhere, and the schools with capacity are over on the other side of the city.

Anyway, I welcome the opportunity to interact with you and the discussion.

Thanks,
Nick

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Isn't the author of this leading the Save Old Hardy cmte?

Yes, yes I am one of the leaders.

Nick Keenan

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow this article is so clueless.

how so?

Because parents will never accept pure lottery, and it is not logistically feasible for people even if they liked it philosophically. The tide is turning against it as San Francisco's experience has shown.

Because someone with a clue would know that DCPS numbers are guesses at best and lies at worst. Not just the enrollment projections, but the capacity stats, are really questionable.

Because if you compare these numbers with the enrollment projections in the SY 19-20 budgets, they don't match up well.

Because DCPS can and does add capacity, e.v. Van Ness, Bard, Brookland Middle, Wells Middle. And opening new middle and high schools can result in capacity increases in other grade levels.

Hi, this is Nick Keenan, the article's author.

I made a conscious decision not to question the projections for the article. I realize that DCPS capacity numbers are built on a shaky foundation at best, and that the assignment of future growth to specific schools is conjecture. The reason I left that out is that it doesn't really change the underlying story. The population projections come from Office of Planning, they have a history of being conservative, and their 5-10 year projections are based on housing and current demographics, which means that the projections are based largely on houses that have already been built and kids that have already been born. In the article I hint at several ways the projections may actually be too low.

The underlying story is that for 50 years DCPS hasn't really had to worry about facilities, at least not about expanding them. Unpack this sentence for a bit: "Even though DC has gained over 22,000 public school students since 2008, and between 2008 and 2013 DCPS shrunk from 134 to 110 schools, the number of seats still exceeds the number of students by about 25%." DCPS has 13,000 empty seats even though it just closed 24 schools and the city just finished adding 22,000 students? WTF? How many empty seats did it have ten years ago? 30,000? But we are on the cusp of a historical break. For the first time in 60 years DCPS has to think about capacity.

The things that have worked in the past few decades just aren't going to work any more. There is a reason that DCPS hasn't made more than minor boundary adjustments in almost 50 years. Boundaries don't really matter when you've got tens of thousands of empty seats and three quarters of the kids assigned by lottery anyway.

As to the comment, "parents will never accept pure lottery," what do you propose instead? Take the example of Lafayette from the article -- "projected to have 1,167 students in a building with a capacity for 805. However, the seven closest elementary schools to Lafayette will all also be over capacity, by a combined 853 students." It's not a simple case of moving a line from one slightly overcrowded school toward a neighboring one with capacity. All those kids need to go somewhere, and the schools with capacity are over on the other side of the city.

Anyway, I welcome the opportunity to interact with you and the discussion.

Thanks,
Nick

I appreciate your willingness to discuss, but you are wrong to say that boundaries do not matter. I care a lot about my IB school.in lower Ward 5 and an all-lottery system might force me into an equally bad, or worse, school that is far away.

The boundary system provides a lot more predictability and certainty than the lottery system does. I would not want to give that up.

I don't think you have a very good feel for east of the park sentiment and issues.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wow this article is so clueless.

how so?

Because parents will never accept pure lottery, and it is not logistically feasible for people even if they liked it philosophically. The tide is turning against it as San Francisco's experience has shown.

Because someone with a clue would know that DCPS numbers are guesses at best and lies at worst. Not just the enrollment projections, but the capacity stats, are really questionable.

Because if you compare these numbers with the enrollment projections in the SY 19-20 budgets, they don't match up well.

Because DCPS can and does add capacity, e.v. Van Ness, Bard, Brookland Middle, Wells Middle. And opening new middle and high schools can result in capacity increases in other grade levels.

Hi, this is Nick Keenan, the article's author.

I made a conscious decision not to question the projections for the article. I realize that DCPS capacity numbers are built on a shaky foundation at best, and that the assignment of future growth to specific schools is conjecture. The reason I left that out is that it doesn't really change the underlying story. The population projections come from Office of Planning, they have a history of being conservative, and their 5-10 year projections are based on housing and current demographics, which means that the projections are based largely on houses that have already been built and kids that have already been born. In the article I hint at several ways the projections may actually be too low.

The underlying story is that for 50 years DCPS hasn't really had to worry about facilities, at least not about expanding them. Unpack this sentence for a bit: "Even though DC has gained over 22,000 public school students since 2008, and between 2008 and 2013 DCPS shrunk from 134 to 110 schools, the number of seats still exceeds the number of students by about 25%." DCPS has 13,000 empty seats even though it just closed 24 schools and the city just finished adding 22,000 students? WTF? How many empty seats did it have ten years ago? 30,000? But we are on the cusp of a historical break. For the first time in 60 years DCPS has to think about capacity.

The things that have worked in the past few decades just aren't going to work any more. There is a reason that DCPS hasn't made more than minor boundary adjustments in almost 50 years. Boundaries don't really matter when you've got tens of thousands of empty seats and three quarters of the kids assigned by lottery anyway.

As to the comment, "parents will never accept pure lottery," what do you propose instead? Take the example of Lafayette from the article -- "projected to have 1,167 students in a building with a capacity for 805. However, the seven closest elementary schools to Lafayette will all also be over capacity, by a combined 853 students." It's not a simple case of moving a line from one slightly overcrowded school toward a neighboring one with capacity. All those kids need to go somewhere, and the schools with capacity are over on the other side of the city.

Anyway, I welcome the opportunity to interact with you and the discussion.

Thanks,
Nick

New poster here.

A city-wide lottery is not the answer. Families HATE it. They hated the idea in 2014 during the last boundary review and it's being driven out of the cities that have adopted it. This isn't just Ward 3 folks either. No one wants that uncertainty, even if they already have a kid at a charter school. Moreover, a city wide lottery leads to more, not less segregation - see: San Francisco.

DC may need to redraw lines, but it also needs to:
1) allow schools to share space like they do in NYC
2) bring the charter and DCPS sectors together, and work together to create the opportunities the city needs
3) create schools that are attractive to all groups, to draw students away from overcrowded schools
4) get creative. Why do all elementary schools need to be PK3-5? What about smaller school that serve less grades? etc.

[Anonymous]

I agree with PP. No one really wants to have to commute out of their way to school with younger children or to have their friends scattered across the city. Time is highly valued.

[Anonymous]

Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCPS has to develop a better method for evaluating residency. They should develop software that will check all enrollment against tax records, DMV, and SNAP benefits. Any address discrepancies are thoroughly evaluated.

You mean like the OSSE/OTR website that doesn't have its security credentials properly registered?

ossedctax.com

Yes but I don’t know what the site looks like because I’m not using it without security certificates! DCPS should get certificates and only allow people to go through it, unless they’re homeless.

[Anonymous]

Ward 3 secretly does not want an additional high school because then they'd have to make room for more at-risk kids.

If you don't like the overcrowding, please feel free to commute across the park. That's what much of the city has had to do for decades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCPS has to develop a better method for evaluating residency. They should develop software that will check all enrollment against tax records, DMV, and SNAP benefits. Any address discrepancies are thoroughly evaluated.

You mean like the OSSE/OTR website that doesn't have its security credentials properly registered?

ossedctax.com

The direct link to the site is here: https://sled.osse.dc.gov/ResidencyVerification/Index/2546 and the security credentials are registered and fine.

DC's error is that the link in the second page of their form (https://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/2019-20%20School%20Year%20DC%20Residency%20Verification%20Form_English.pdf) doesn't go to the secure site. Which is a ridiculous error.

We did the OTR verification through the correct site and it worked well. It's really unfortunate that DC couldn't set up its form in a way to make it easy for others to do so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.

+1. Yes, you can take a bare statistic and pronounce that the schools are overcrowded, but the stat can be easily misused unless accompanied by a graphic displaying geographical density of the students in comparison to each school's capacity.

The big picture is that DC is bearing the effects of gentrification more and faster than any other city in the USA, and the effects with respect to schools are being felt differently in different sections of our city. A challenging problem, one that can right itself in the future, but only if capacity is ready and waiting as the tide flows.

An all-lottery system may be tempting on the surface, but I have yet to read a convincing argument that it would best meet diverse students' needs over time. Personally, I think a few more charter middles with different purposes (one geared to academics, another to art, another to tech, etc.) would go a long way to balancing out different demands.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
The direct link to the site is here: https://sled.osse.dc.gov/ResidencyVerification/Index/2546 and the security credentials are registered and fine.

Yeah, I saw that. The fact that the primary URL site is bad, along with the bad link from the instruction document, means that probably less than 1% of people who attempted to verify online did it. I wish I could say that this is unusual for these agencies, especially OSSE, but it isn't.

[Anonymous]

They are going to have to limit PreK to low income families. Universal PreK is great but why does a family making $150k a year need it? They will need to pay for daycare or private PreK.

[Anonymous]

What really needs to happen

Stop sibling preferences that would free-up the overcrowding issue
If you want the best school pyramid you have to pay to be in-bound. Sorry that's just life.
For People EOTP organize and decide on one middle school for high performers and then high school is fine with all the test in choices. This is already happening in the South with Stuart Hobson and even Jefferson having honors and tracking available.
For EOTR one of the high schools needs to close. For the remaining two high schools and their associated pyramids build on the community school model for extra resources and support from day one.