MSDC waitlist data posted

[Anonymous]

PP again, adding that it seems improbable that MV8 somehow “lost” 10 PK3 seats in one year. But if you think you can, please explain why 80 seats were available last year and only 70 are available now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like MV8 had 70 spots and only goes through 1st grade, so fewer grades for sibling preferences. Anyone think they’ll get through WL#20?

Its hard to know. About half of those 70 are siblings, but it’s still a good shot.

How do we know that half are siblings?

Yeah what PP said re: siblings doesn’t make much sense. MV8 had 80 PK3 lottery seats in its inaugural year. This year it’s down to 70, which, unless the school has shrunk the size of its PK3 classes, suggests that 10 seats have gone to siblings, and the remaining 70 are available for everyone else.

Schools don’t reserve sibling seats, they still have to enter the lottery. If available seats are 70, that number includes those with sibling preference.

I’m not sure that’s true. It doesn’t explain why, for instance, schools that have 80-100 PK3 students only list 15-20 “available lottery seats” each year. Where did those 60+ seats go? Someone is filling them, and it’s not rising PK2 kids because that’s not a thing.

Can you show an example?

Yes, I already did. Look at MV8. Or any other school for that matter.

[Anonymous]

MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

That is a perfectly normal and un-surprising thing for MV to do. The first year only had PK3, PK4, and K. So all available classrooms were used for three grades. Now, the same number of rooms must be used to serve PK3, PK4, K, and 1st. So they will have to have less students in other grades, to free up space for the new 1st grade rooms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

That is a perfectly normal and un-surprising thing for MV to do. The first year only had PK3, PK4, and K. So all available classrooms were used for three grades. Now, the same number of rooms must be used to serve PK3, PK4, K, and 1st. So they will have to have less students in other grades, to free up space for the new 1st grade rooms.

This is an out of date version I think, but new charters have to submit a table of how many kids they will have in each grade, each year. See how the number of preschoolers is high, then drops off?
https://dcpcsb.org/sites/default/files/media/file/03-Mundo%20Verde%20Charter%20Amendment%20App%20ECI%20Matrix%20%2801-11-19%29_0.pdf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

That is a perfectly normal and un-surprising thing for MV to do. The first year only had PK3, PK4, and K. So all available classrooms were used for three grades. Now, the same number of rooms must be used to serve PK3, PK4, K, and 1st. So they will have to have less students in other grades, to free up space for the new 1st grade rooms.

This is an out of date version I think, but new charters have to submit a table of how many kids they will have in each grade, each year. See how the number of preschoolers is high, then drops off?
https://dcpcsb.org/sites/default/files/media/file/03-Mundo%20Verde%20Charter%20Amendment%20App%20ECI%20Matrix%20%2801-11-19%29_0.pdf

Thank you. I was looking for something that spelled out how many kids are enrolled per class. This projection seems odd given the actual number of available seats (37 vs. 80, and 37 vs. 70), so it’d be great if accurate data were available.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

Two things: seats offered and seats available are different things. I’m talking about lottery seats available.

You took my example too literally. It was a very crude example of what seems to be happening at MV8 and other schools that show low/fluctuating PK3 seat availability that doesn’t match actual capacity/seats filled.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

That is a perfectly normal and un-surprising thing for MV to do. The first year only had PK3, PK4, and K. So all available classrooms were used for three grades. Now, the same number of rooms must be used to serve PK3, PK4, K, and 1st. So they will have to have less students in other grades, to free up space for the new 1st grade rooms.

Thank you. I think your response comes closest to offering a plausible explanation for why these numbers have changed. But what still doesn’t make sense to me is why they should change at all when schools know exactly how many chairs are in each room and how many rooms are devoted to each grade. So, eg, 20 seats x 4 PK3 classrooms = 80 seats available each year, without fluctuation...unless the school is anticipating 10 seats getting claimed by sibling preference PK3ers. In which case, 70 seats are available.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

That is a perfectly normal and un-surprising thing for MV to do. The first year only had PK3, PK4, and K. So all available classrooms were used for three grades. Now, the same number of rooms must be used to serve PK3, PK4, K, and 1st. So they will have to have less students in other grades, to free up space for the new 1st grade rooms.

Thank you. I think your response comes closest to offering a plausible explanation for why these numbers have changed. But what still doesn’t make sense to me is why they should change at all when schools know exactly how many chairs are in each room and how many rooms are devoted to each grade. So, eg, 20 seats x 4 PK3 classrooms = 80 seats available each year, without fluctuation...unless the school is anticipating 10 seats getting claimed by sibling preference PK3ers. In which case, 70 seats are available.

You still don't understand. Siblings are part of the total spots offered. Schools don't get to hold back spots specifically for siblings. That just isn't a thing.

There are a lot of other reasons. Basically, a lot can change from year to year. Enrollment projections are based on past experience. DCPS does this for schools based on their retention of students in past years and the number of kids who are moving up from the previous grade. Charter schools do a similar process. It's not just the number of seats they have, it's a lot of historical data and planning assumptions, and policy decisions about how the school operates. So if a school's history of retaining its students from one grade to another changes, that can change how many seats it decides to offer. Things can also change from year to year, especially with new schools that are adding grades and finding their footing financially. Sometimes schools decide to offer an extra classroom in a certain year (a "bubble class") to bring in funds, reach their enrollment cap, or make best use of their physical space. For preschool, schools can offer separate PK3 and PK4, or combine ages. Or some rooms can be combined and some not. Schools tend to set up their preschools to produce the desired number of Kindergarten students. Charters are allowed to offer additional seats ("overmatch") on the assumption that not everyone will enroll, but the down side is that they might have to scramble to hire a teacher if they come in too high. DCPS schools with Early Action are also capable of overmatching, and that is why Early Action only happens at schools that have the physical capacity to handle an overmatch scenario. If MV was comfortable overmatching last year, that doesn't mean they'll be comfortable doing so this year when they have 1st graders, more siblings (who are likely to enroll), and are no longer a brand new school so likely a higher percentage of their initial matches will enroll and still be there in the fall.

You can look at DCPS' method here: https://dcps.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dcps/publication/attachments/FY19%20Budget%20Guide.pdf . It starts on page 7.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

That is a perfectly normal and un-surprising thing for MV to do. The first year only had PK3, PK4, and K. So all available classrooms were used for three grades. Now, the same number of rooms must be used to serve PK3, PK4, K, and 1st. So they will have to have less students in other grades, to free up space for the new 1st grade rooms.

Thank you. I think your response comes closest to offering a plausible explanation for why these numbers have changed. But what still doesn’t make sense to me is why they should change at all when schools know exactly how many chairs are in each room and how many rooms are devoted to each grade. So, eg, 20 seats x 4 PK3 classrooms = 80 seats available each year, without fluctuation...unless the school is anticipating 10 seats getting claimed by sibling preference PK3ers. In which case, 70 seats are available.

You still don't understand. Siblings are part of the total spots offered. Schools don't get to hold back spots specifically for siblings. That just isn't a thing.

There are a lot of other reasons. Basically, a lot can change from year to year. Enrollment projections are based on past experience. DCPS does this for schools based on their retention of students in past years and the number of kids who are moving up from the previous grade. Charter schools do a similar process. It's not just the number of seats they have, it's a lot of historical data and planning assumptions, and policy decisions about how the school operates. So if a school's history of retaining its students from one grade to another changes, that can change how many seats it decides to offer. Things can also change from year to year, especially with new schools that are adding grades and finding their footing financially. Sometimes schools decide to offer an extra classroom in a certain year (a "bubble class") to bring in funds, reach their enrollment cap, or make best use of their physical space. For preschool, schools can offer separate PK3 and PK4, or combine ages. Or some rooms can be combined and some not. Schools tend to set up their preschools to produce the desired number of Kindergarten students. Charters are allowed to offer additional seats ("overmatch") on the assumption that not everyone will enroll, but the down side is that they might have to scramble to hire a teacher if they come in too high. DCPS schools with Early Action are also capable of overmatching, and that is why Early Action only happens at schools that have the physical capacity to handle an overmatch scenario. If MV was comfortable overmatching last year, that doesn't mean they'll be comfortable doing so this year when they have 1st graders, more siblings (who are likely to enroll), and are no longer a brand new school so likely a higher percentage of their initial matches will enroll and still be there in the fall.

You can look at DCPS' method here: https://dcps.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dcps/publication/attachments/FY19%20Budget%20Guide.pdf . It starts on page 7.

Hi again, just to reiterate, "total spots offered" and "lottery seats available" are two different things. One is based on hard data, the other is based on projections. Perhaps you're just being loose with your terminology and we're talking past each other, but if not, I think you may be describing something different.

Whatever the case, thank you for sharing the link regarding how DCPS allocates funds to public schools based on projected enrollment. That is generally helpful information, although it's unclear whether that budgeting methodology is the same one used to determine how many lottery seats will be available for schools, charters or otherwise. I guess I'll have to look forward to seeing MV8's actual enrollment numbers when that information is made available as part of its annual budget...in another year or so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

That is a perfectly normal and un-surprising thing for MV to do. The first year only had PK3, PK4, and K. So all available classrooms were used for three grades. Now, the same number of rooms must be used to serve PK3, PK4, K, and 1st. So they will have to have less students in other grades, to free up space for the new 1st grade rooms.

Thank you. I think your response comes closest to offering a plausible explanation for why these numbers have changed. But what still doesn’t make sense to me is why they should change at all when schools know exactly how many chairs are in each room and how many rooms are devoted to each grade. So, eg, 20 seats x 4 PK3 classrooms = 80 seats available each year, without fluctuation...unless the school is anticipating 10 seats getting claimed by sibling preference PK3ers. In which case, 70 seats are available.

You still don't understand. Siblings are part of the total spots offered. Schools don't get to hold back spots specifically for siblings. That just isn't a thing.

There are a lot of other reasons. Basically, a lot can change from year to year. Enrollment projections are based on past experience. DCPS does this for schools based on their retention of students in past years and the number of kids who are moving up from the previous grade. Charter schools do a similar process. It's not just the number of seats they have, it's a lot of historical data and planning assumptions, and policy decisions about how the school operates. So if a school's history of retaining its students from one grade to another changes, that can change how many seats it decides to offer. Things can also change from year to year, especially with new schools that are adding grades and finding their footing financially. Sometimes schools decide to offer an extra classroom in a certain year (a "bubble class") to bring in funds, reach their enrollment cap, or make best use of their physical space. For preschool, schools can offer separate PK3 and PK4, or combine ages. Or some rooms can be combined and some not. Schools tend to set up their preschools to produce the desired number of Kindergarten students. Charters are allowed to offer additional seats ("overmatch") on the assumption that not everyone will enroll, but the down side is that they might have to scramble to hire a teacher if they come in too high. DCPS schools with Early Action are also capable of overmatching, and that is why Early Action only happens at schools that have the physical capacity to handle an overmatch scenario. If MV was comfortable overmatching last year, that doesn't mean they'll be comfortable doing so this year when they have 1st graders, more siblings (who are likely to enroll), and are no longer a brand new school so likely a higher percentage of their initial matches will enroll and still be there in the fall.

You can look at DCPS' method here: https://dcps.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dcps/publication/attachments/FY19%20Budget%20Guide.pdf . It starts on page 7.

Hi again, just to reiterate, "total spots offered" and "lottery seats available" are two different things. One is based on hard data, the other is based on projections. Perhaps you're just being loose with your terminology and we're talking past each other, but if not, I think you may be describing something different.

Whatever the case, thank you for sharing the link regarding how DCPS allocates funds to public schools based on projected enrollment. That is generally helpful information, although it's unclear whether that budgeting methodology is the same one used to determine how many lottery seats will be available for schools, charters or otherwise. I guess I'll have to look forward to seeing MV8's actual enrollment numbers when that information is made available as part of its annual budget...in another year or so.

New poster. PP said: So, eg, 20 seats x 4 PK3 classrooms = 80 seats available each year, without fluctuation...unless the school is anticipating 10 seats getting claimed by sibling preference PK3ers. In which case, 70 seats are available.

In reality with the way schools are asked to participate in the lottery, they make all seats for new students available in the lottery based on whatever projections or space constraints they have. So in your example, 80 seats will be made available in the lottery and 10 of them (or 9, or 12) will be matched to siblings since they are the top of the preference order. But they don't simply enroll those siblings outside of the lottery process and make fewer seats available in the lottery. Seats are made available and siblings get some of them.

[Anonymous]

we're #9 on this school's waitlist for PK3
how much hope is there? 50/50?
(they have one less pk3 classroom this year)

last year data:
Waitlist length on Results Day--45
Waitlist offers made by October 2019--14

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:we're #9 on this school's waitlist for PK3
how much hope is there? 50/50?
(they have one less pk3 classroom this year)

last year data:
Waitlist length on Results Day--45
Waitlist offers made by October 2019--14

How many PK3 classrooms remain? If 2+, I would say 50/50, but that’s by Oct 1 (since you didn’t post the earlier numbers, I don’t know if there were a lot of Oct offers... those are somewhat more arbitrary/less predictable in the sense that way more people don’t take the slots, so you could go through 1 or 15 in a given year for a slot... it’s sort of a crap shoot; especially at a school that’s hard to get into, because then the folks on the WL in late Sep probably have decent spots and probably won’t take the offer).

[Anonymous]

^^ Just noticed only 45 on the WL. In that case, a higher percentage of folks will probably take Oct offers, so it’s probably a bit more predictable. I’d say 50/50.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MV8 almost certainly offered more PK3 seats last year than they had slots available, counting on a certain amount of folks declining their match. This is the same reason they offered 10 1st grade seats this year - they don't know that's how many seats they will have, but are counting on a certain number of their K current students to not re-enroll next year.

If there is an example of a school that has 80-100 PK3 students this year and only 15-20 "available lottery seats" for that grade next year, I'd love to see it.

That is a perfectly normal and un-surprising thing for MV to do. The first year only had PK3, PK4, and K. So all available classrooms were used for three grades. Now, the same number of rooms must be used to serve PK3, PK4, K, and 1st. So they will have to have less students in other grades, to free up space for the new 1st grade rooms.

Thank you. I think your response comes closest to offering a plausible explanation for why these numbers have changed. But what still doesn’t make sense to me is why they should change at all when schools know exactly how many chairs are in each room and how many rooms are devoted to each grade. So, eg, 20 seats x 4 PK3 classrooms = 80 seats available each year, without fluctuation...unless the school is anticipating 10 seats getting claimed by sibling preference PK3ers. In which case, 70 seats are available.

You still don't understand. Siblings are part of the total spots offered. Schools don't get to hold back spots specifically for siblings. That just isn't a thing.

There are a lot of other reasons. Basically, a lot can change from year to year. Enrollment projections are based on past experience. DCPS does this for schools based on their retention of students in past years and the number of kids who are moving up from the previous grade. Charter schools do a similar process. It's not just the number of seats they have, it's a lot of historical data and planning assumptions, and policy decisions about how the school operates. So if a school's history of retaining its students from one grade to another changes, that can change how many seats it decides to offer. Things can also change from year to year, especially with new schools that are adding grades and finding their footing financially. Sometimes schools decide to offer an extra classroom in a certain year (a "bubble class") to bring in funds, reach their enrollment cap, or make best use of their physical space. For preschool, schools can offer separate PK3 and PK4, or combine ages. Or some rooms can be combined and some not. Schools tend to set up their preschools to produce the desired number of Kindergarten students. Charters are allowed to offer additional seats ("overmatch") on the assumption that not everyone will enroll, but the down side is that they might have to scramble to hire a teacher if they come in too high. DCPS schools with Early Action are also capable of overmatching, and that is why Early Action only happens at schools that have the physical capacity to handle an overmatch scenario. If MV was comfortable overmatching last year, that doesn't mean they'll be comfortable doing so this year when they have 1st graders, more siblings (who are likely to enroll), and are no longer a brand new school so likely a higher percentage of their initial matches will enroll and still be there in the fall.

You can look at DCPS' method here: https://dcps.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dcps/publication/attachments/FY19%20Budget%20Guide.pdf . It starts on page 7.

Hi again, just to reiterate, "total spots offered" and "lottery seats available" are two different things. One is based on hard data, the other is based on projections. Perhaps you're just being loose with your terminology and we're talking past each other, but if not, I think you may be describing something different.

Whatever the case, thank you for sharing the link regarding how DCPS allocates funds to public schools based on projected enrollment. That is generally helpful information, although it's unclear whether that budgeting methodology is the same one used to determine how many lottery seats will be available for schools, charters or otherwise. I guess I'll have to look forward to seeing MV8's actual enrollment numbers when that information is made available as part of its annual budget...in another year or so.

New poster. PP said: So, eg, 20 seats x 4 PK3 classrooms = 80 seats available each year, without fluctuation...unless the school is anticipating 10 seats getting claimed by sibling preference PK3ers. In which case, 70 seats are available.

In reality with the way schools are asked to participate in the lottery, they make all seats for new students available in the lottery based on whatever projections or space constraints they have. So in your example, 80 seats will be made available in the lottery and 10 of them (or 9, or 12) will be matched to siblings since they are the top of the preference order. But they don't simply enroll those siblings outside of the lottery process and make fewer seats available in the lottery. Seats are made available and siblings get some of them.

Hi NP. The person you’re responding to and the person you’re quoting are the same person. Welcome to the convo.