Doubt those seats are going anywhere and there are more like 250-300 kids and only the top 15% are considered so your odds are more like 25/45. At last count TPMS had 405 students in 6th grade with a total enrollment of 1,162. You may be thinking of TPES/Piney Branch, but there's also ESS, an entire school, that fees into it. While there are a BUNCH of highly educated and affluent families in bounds, there are just as many families that are not (it's a 40% FARMS school which is on metric that tracks to this stuff pretty consistently). The pool isn't top 15%: it's something like "if you make it into the top 15th percentile for MCPS" which is probably more at TPMS, but I'm not even sure it's that. Still, odds are better than literally any other school (particular of you are coming from the TPES/PBES route, statistically) but it's not a 25/45 chance. Not even close. So of the 400 8th graders 300 are in-boundary and eligible for one of the set aside seats. 100 of those 400 8th graders are magnet kids from out of boundary. No, that is not right. Yes, it's fewer than 300 even! TPMS has 1,162 students, https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/regulatoryaccountability/glance/currentyear/schools/03755.pdf Each grade has 100 out of boundary magnet students. 1162 - 3 * 100 = 862 in boundary students Of the 862 there are 25 in-boundary magnet students per grade. Since there are 3 grades, there are a total of 75 in-boundary magnet students. The upper 15% of 862 is 129.3. The odds of an in-boundary kid in the top 15% getting selected is 75 / 129.3 or roughly 58%. Pardon me if I’m a bit sour grapes that my out of boundary 99th percentile kid didn’t win the lottery, and these in bounds students have such a good chance at a seat in a program with so few overall seats. Don't worry; your 99% kid will thrive. |
Yes, the rollout of the ELC feels weird and unfair, but just to be clear: Piney Branch does not have the ELC. So a 99th percentile kid at PBES who misses the lottery is just as screwed as a 99th percentile kid at SCES or RCFES or any other school that didn't get the extension this year. |
Ok but to be fair, Piney Branch has a whole CES for just its own school population, whereas a child at RCFES is trying to lottery into a CES that is comprised of students from over a dozen feeder elem schools. |
PBES CES pre-lottery was very competitive. My neighbor's kid was even waitlisted with a 97% CogAT before it was lottery. The problem is many high scoring kids will not be selected by the lottery so the lack of ELC seems like a problem. |
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TPMS and Blair alum here - now with kids at MCPS elem schools. If my kids get into a magnet, it will be their choice entirely to attend. They should go because they are interested in the classes. Under no circumstances will I sell them horse$hit about it being the only way to be successful or get into the college of their choice, or that it's validation of their brilliance. Because none of that is true. Smart, hard-working students will do well anywhere, and any school in MCPS can offer them challenging coursework, even places like Einstein and Seneca Valley. The only exception to that are kids destined for Math Olympiad or whatnot - the Jacob Lurie level math kids, but it's not most of your kids (or my kids). Your kids are 2 or 3 standard deviations from the mean, not 4, and regular AP MCPS will be just fine, though that may be a hard pill to swallow.
If your kid gets in (esp to Blair or RM which is not lottery), it's because they did well on standardized tests. If they did well on standardized tests, its likely because you, their parents, are higher SES and they were probably encouraged and supported by you as well in their schoolwork. Higher income and supportive educated parents are highly correlated with magnet acceptance. And with or without Blair, your kids are still expected to have much better educational/life outcomes than someone without those things. |
words of wisdom +10^100 |
This, I was at Blair in the early 90s. There were a few all-stars in the program and we all knew the ones that went to the elite colleges but most of us were just "the rich kids" with pushy parents who had C lunch and hard math classes. I went on to an honors dorm at college and the avg level of students there far exceeded the Magnet before my freshman slide put me on academic probation. Back then I knew very few non-magnet kids, our classes even emptied into the halls on a different bell cycle. That is one of the things I am grateful they addressed. |
It has been almost 30 years since the early 90s. Just saying. Some things may have changed? |
Evolution is a slow process. People are basically the same. However, many areas are different today. For example, Logan circle was really sketchy back then but today it's among the nicest neighborhoods int the city. Blair still has one of the strongest programs in the region. |
It's very economically diverse today and many more all-stars. I'm not even sure your allegation that there were only a few all-stars in the 90s is true because I sure remember a huge number going to elite schools. |
Not the PP but the competition for elite schools back then seemed much lower. There were far fewer kids with 4.0's and SAT averages were much lower too. A lot of this stems from grade inflation and rebalancing the SAT in the early 90s but things just seem more competitive today. |
Many of the Blair STEM kids have immigrant Asian parents like me who came to the US in the late 90s/early 2000s for grad school. Things do change over 30 yrs. |
My kid is one of the 99th percentile PBES kids who didn’t get the lucky lottery ticket. Yes, they had better odds because they were inbound, but it is so frustrating that in the old system they probably would have been selected, but not with the new lottery. |
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I'm 15:11. I graduated in the late 90s. Many of us went onto selective colleges then, and many got full rides. I'd guess 40% of our class was Asian, and 60-70% were boys (hope that's been fixed now). Regardless, I stand by my basic point - most of us would have turned out similarly regardless of TPMS/Blair. The things that pushed us (educated, supportive parents, stable home life, middle to upper middle class SES) would have remained the same. Our parents would have pushed us to take a heavy AP load, get very good grades, and had us prep for the SATs all the same.
I think most schools in the Moco can offer challenging coursework to most kids, and places like TPMS/Blair really make a difference for people who are insanely brilliant OR people who *don't* have a good support system. So I'm actually all for introducing equity systems into the selection process like doing a lottery at 85%. Even back then, the selection sometimes chose a person from an atypical background like a friend of mine - poor, kid of a single mom, black - and what it can do for those kids is invaluable. My friend is now a hotshot academic at a very well known Ivy and I'm not sure it would have gone the same way without Blair because the staff gave the student a lot of encouragement and support. |
I agree with you BUT I still would like to see the size of this program expanded since it's popular and more would benefit from it. I also kind of feel bad for the kids like mine who typically score 20-30 points over the 99% on these metrics they use for selection but weren't selected but overall I can see the value in a lottery. Nevertheless, I know they'll be fine in the long run and can see how this opportunity might be life-changing for others. |