2028 Girls Lacrosse

[Anonymous]

Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

Data Guy, you are annoying but I respect your work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

You missed a local Florida commit and inadvertently added Charlottesville schools (St Annes-Belfield and Covenant School). The new list is as follows:

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
1 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
2 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver
Total - 10 in top 20 (7 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
0 - Virginia
2 - Duke
Total - 12

Of those 12, here is the club breakdown:
Capital - 9
YJMA - 2
Hero's - 1

It does seem that the 2025s had to deal with much less "flight" of good players to MD teams than the 2028s. I continue to believe any change at 2028 is related to the flight of Montgomery County players to MD teams, which has adversely impacted the local team rankings. I don’t see an overall geographic area talent drop off as compared to prior years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The takeaway is that playing lacrosse (or any other D1 sport) is not all that’s cracked up to be. If you like getting up at 5:30 AM and hitting the weight room while your non athlete roommates sleep in until 10, then it could be for you. Also consider there is no pro league to make millions for lacrosse. The sport generates zero revenue for the schools. Gotta love it.

So...if a player thinks she wants to play in college and has the skills and grades to be recruited by the defending National Champion, she will have the following options:

1. Play lacrosse all four years even if it means working incredibly hard, and having a different college experience than classmates who don't play a D1 sport, and competing tooth and nail for playing time that she might never get with upperclasswomen, transfers, etc--while attending a top 20 university;

2. Try D1 top 5 lacrosse, determine it's not the right fit, and still be a Northwestern student; or

3. Transfer to a school with a better fit after a year or two.

I'll keep searching for a downside other than option 1 is hard.

You won’t have to search long. Ask anyone in the know, they will tell you about the challenging team culture there and at most top 10 teams. At that level, the coaches focus on / care about the starters. It’s one thing to work hard and put in the hours. It’s an entirely different thing to put in all that time and effort and feel like you’re a ghost to the coaching staff.

Option 2 still works then.

Seems like it’s an all or nothing pursuit for you. Other players have different priorities.

Not at all an all or nothing pursuit for me at all. (I'm actually with the group that favors playing great lacrosse as a path to a D1/D3 high academic option that might offer more balance and better options for what the player will actually do after college.)

I was just noting that logically, if a player is talented enough and wants to take a shot at playing at a top 20 with great academics, like Northwestern, there is little downside to going if an offer is presented, because the consolation options are both really good. That's all I'm saying. Not a situation that's personally relevant, just a logic game with the naysayers who think even the best players should avoid the best teams because they are a meat-grinder in terms of culture, schedule, and intensity.

I don’t see much logic in wanting to play for top ten programs with known reputations for poor team cultures where the chance of playing is next to zero. If the strongest argument in favor of it is the notion that you can quit and still attend a top 20 university, why not go to an equal / higher academic D1 where the chance of playing is stronger and the overall experience is better? The player can continue playing the game at an extremely high level, and can quit if it’s too much and receive a degree from a comparable / better school?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

It does seem that the 2025s had to deal with much less "flight" of good players to MD teams than the 2028s. I continue to believe any change at 2028 is related to the flight of Montgomery County players to MD teams, which has adversely impacted the local team rankings. I don’t see an overall geographic area talent drop off as compared to prior years.

This is a believable argument with facts behind it. The players that left for MD teams would otherwise be on 2 of the local teams and now they are not. Thinking against this is just not seeing the reality.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The takeaway is that playing lacrosse (or any other D1 sport) is not all that’s cracked up to be. If you like getting up at 5:30 AM and hitting the weight room while your non athlete roommates sleep in until 10, then it could be for you. Also consider there is no pro league to make millions for lacrosse. The sport generates zero revenue for the schools. Gotta love it.

So...if a player thinks she wants to play in college and has the skills and grades to be recruited by the defending National Champion, she will have the following options:

1. Play lacrosse all four years even if it means working incredibly hard, and having a different college experience than classmates who don't play a D1 sport, and competing tooth and nail for playing time that she might never get with upperclasswomen, transfers, etc--while attending a top 20 university;

2. Try D1 top 5 lacrosse, determine it's not the right fit, and still be a Northwestern student; or

3. Transfer to a school with a better fit after a year or two.

I'll keep searching for a downside other than option 1 is hard.

off the top, 2. is naïve. Quitting is hard for the player.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

Data Guy, you are annoying but I respect your work.

I will take it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

Data Guy, you are annoying but I respect your work.

I will take it.

Data Guy, you did all that research and did not even notice the club affiliation of the local players? You even doubled down on (your own) “reasonable argument” that 2028 is not as strong as other years. Are you generally bad at analysis, or just having an “off” day?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

Data Guy, you are annoying but I respect your work.

I will take it.

Data Guy, you did all that research and did not even notice the club affiliation of the local players? You even doubled down on (your own) “reasonable argument” that 2028 is not as strong as other years. Are you generally bad at analysis, or just having an “off” day?

Looks like other "data guy" is even more annoying.

First, club affiliation wasn't relevant--plenty of Baltimore club parents posting here, and I'm guessing many are from MoCo. No need to rehash the speculation on whether top MoCo players may try out for Capital. But if there are going to DC area schools, I would argue that we get to claim them.

Second, you are having trouble tracking who is making what argument, which is understandable given this is an anonymous board. I'm on the side that believes the 2028 issue is primarily a MoCO teams challenge, and that the talent of the class in the area overall, is in a similar range to prior year. I'm simply deploying a simple technique of analysis and persuasion by assuming my interlocutors position for the sake of argument, and showing that--even if it's accurate--the conclusion on the instant issue (1-2 from DC area to top 20) is likely to be wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

Data Guy, you are annoying but I respect your work.

I will take it.

Data Guy, you did all that research and did not even notice the club affiliation of the local players? You even doubled down on (your own) “reasonable argument” that 2028 is not as strong as other years. Are you generally bad at analysis, or just having an “off” day?

Looks like other "data guy" is even more annoying.

First, club affiliation wasn't relevant--plenty of Baltimore club parents posting here, and I'm guessing many are from MoCo. No need to rehash the speculation on whether top MoCo players may try out for Capital. But if there are going to DC area schools, I would argue that we get to claim them.

Second, you are having trouble tracking who is making what argument, which is understandable given this is an anonymous board. I'm on the side that believes the 2028 issue is primarily a MoCO teams challenge, and that the talent of the class in the area overall, is in a similar range to prior year. I'm simply deploying a simple technique of analysis and persuasion by assuming my interlocutors position for the sake of argument, and showing that--even if it's accurate--the conclusion on the instant issue (1-2 from DC area to top 20) is likely to be wrong.

Let's sum this up on the 2028s. About 6-7 Moco players left for Heros. The BLC 28 team imploded as a result. Several Nova players left for MD teams but Pride and Stars are still there. If those 10 or so players currently on MD teams all come back to try out for Capital, that makes the 28 pool of players only stronger, not weaker. What else is there to argue about?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Let's sum this up on the 2028s. About 6-7 Moco players left for Heros. The BLC 28 team imploded as a result. Several Nova players left for MD teams but Pride and Stars are still there. If those 10 or so players currently on MD teams all come back to try out for Capital, that makes the 28 pool of players only stronger, not weaker. What else is there to argue about?

Chances of 10 actually leaving an MD club to tryout for Cap? Seems slim. Might get 5 that make the move back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

Data Guy, you are annoying but I respect your work.

I will take it.

Data Guy, you did all that research and did not even notice the club affiliation of the local players? You even doubled down on (your own) “reasonable argument” that 2028 is not as strong as other years. Are you generally bad at analysis, or just having an “off” day?

Looks like other "data guy" is even more annoying.

First, club affiliation wasn't relevant--plenty of Baltimore club parents posting here, and I'm guessing many are from MoCo. No need to rehash the speculation on whether top MoCo players may try out for Capital. But if there are going to DC area schools, I would argue that we get to claim them.

Second, you are having trouble tracking who is making what argument, which is understandable given this is an anonymous board. I'm on the side that believes the 2028 issue is primarily a MoCO teams challenge, and that the talent of the class in the area overall, is in a similar range to prior year. I'm simply deploying a simple technique of analysis and persuasion by assuming my interlocutors position for the sake of argument, and showing that--even if it's accurate--the conclusion on the instant issue (1-2 from DC area to top 20) is likely to be wrong.

Let's sum this up on the 2028s. About 6-7 Moco players left for Heros. The BLC 28 team imploded as a result. Several Nova players left for MD teams but Pride and Stars are still there. If those 10 or so players currently on MD teams all come back to try out for Capital, that makes the 28 pool of players only stronger, not weaker. What else is there to argue about?

Reasonable people keep saying this but one dad keeps arguing his point.... no idea why?!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The takeaway is that playing lacrosse (or any other D1 sport) is not all that’s cracked up to be. If you like getting up at 5:30 AM and hitting the weight room while your non athlete roommates sleep in until 10, then it could be for you. Also consider there is no pro league to make millions for lacrosse. The sport generates zero revenue for the schools. Gotta love it.

So...if a player thinks she wants to play in college and has the skills and grades to be recruited by the defending National Champion, she will have the following options:

1. Play lacrosse all four years even if it means working incredibly hard, and having a different college experience than classmates who don't play a D1 sport, and competing tooth and nail for playing time that she might never get with upperclasswomen, transfers, etc--while attending a top 20 university;

2. Try D1 top 5 lacrosse, determine it's not the right fit, and still be a Northwestern student; or

3. Transfer to a school with a better fit after a year or two.

I'll keep searching for a downside other than option 1 is hard.

You are really something.....you have to be the same data guy and the guy on the 28 thread that is just the pot stirrer....I feel bad for your daughter

Those are at least 3 different posters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Let's sum this up on the 2028s. About 6-7 Moco players left for Heros. The BLC 28 team imploded as a result. Several Nova players left for MD teams but Pride and Stars are still there. If those 10 or so players currently on MD teams all come back to try out for Capital, that makes the 28 pool of players only stronger, not weaker. What else is there to argue about?

Chances of 10 actually leaving an MD club to tryout for Cap? Seems slim. Might get 5 that make the move back.

If they are on a top Maryland team already, why tryout for Capital?

[Anonymous]

28s!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!