2028 Girls Lacrosse

Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.


You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)


I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.


Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.


NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.


2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31


There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)


Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame


absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.


YJMA 2030 is solid and will get better this spring. The top 2030 team in in the area by a wide margin is BLC. The same goes for 2031 and 2032. BLC has down a great job with the younger grades.


You're saying the BLC 2030 team ranked #16 is the top team in the area by a wide margin over the YJMA 2030 team ranked #11?


Thats is correct. Don't put too much weight behind a fall ranking.


subjective opinions of BLC parent/coaches are way more reliable than a third-party ranking


As punishment for their hubris USA Lacrosse moved BLC down to #17 overnight
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.


You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)


I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.


Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.


NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.


2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31


There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)


Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame


absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.


YJMA 2030 is solid and will get better this spring. The top 2030 team in in the area by a wide margin is BLC. The same goes for 2031 and 2032. BLC has down a great job with the younger grades.


You're saying the BLC 2030 team ranked #16 is the top team in the area by a wide margin over the YJMA 2030 team ranked #11?


Thats is correct. Don't put too much weight behind a fall ranking.


subjective opinions of BLC parent/coaches are way more reliable than a third-party ranking


STJ Stars are best team in area by a wide margin. Rankings are definitely wrong.


Are you talking about 2030s? This is a 2028 thread.

Or was this a throwback to last January when irrational exuberance for Stars under StJ was a dominant theme?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.


You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)


I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.


Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.


Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.


Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)



ok this is crazy - why are you so determined to make this point? I am not sure how it impacts you?


Because the point has been made, many times in the recent and distant past on this thread, that players are leaving the DMV in big numbers for MD teams. Even with the additions some have noted to the 25s (thanks for those updates), the data puts that claim to rest.

2028 data isn’t available, but when it is, my guess is we’ll see a higher percentage of DMV players on Md teams since the depth of talent across the board isn’t as strong. But given the better performance of the 29s, the number of DMVers heading north will likely return to the <10 trend.


The data shows that any change at 2028 is related to Montgomery County teams. Either 1) MoCo talent has dropped off generally, or 2) the flight of players to MD teams has adversely impacted the MD teams rankings. The latter makes more sense to me.


I think it’s more the former. It speaks to the lack of DMV 28 talent depth. Those players would have stayed if depth was stronger. The good players didn’t have a strong cast around them. Can’t blame them for leaving. 28 players who left the DMV for MD did so out of necessity. Had 28 DMV been as strong as prior years (and following year) most would have stayed in the DMV as the 25s, 26s, 27s did (and 29s have).
Anonymous
Again - I am not sure why you care about making this point but lets indulge for a second - I think the point is not the number of players so much as it is the caliber of players - you get one or two impactful players to stay at BLC for instance and it can cause a ripple effect the same way them leaving can do the same.

But again - I get it that we can discuss anything etc but I am genuinely not sure why this matters?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.


You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)


I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.


Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.


Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.


Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)



ok this is crazy - why are you so determined to make this point? I am not sure how it impacts you?


Because the point has been made, many times in the recent and distant past on this thread, that players are leaving the DMV in big numbers for MD teams. Even with the additions some have noted to the 25s (thanks for those updates), the data puts that claim to rest.

2028 data isn’t available, but when it is, my guess is we’ll see a higher percentage of DMV players on Md teams since the depth of talent across the board isn’t as strong. But given the better performance of the 29s, the number of DMVers heading north will likely return to the <10 trend.


The data shows that any change at 2028 is related to Montgomery County teams. Either 1) MoCo talent has dropped off generally, or 2) the flight of players to MD teams has adversely impacted the MD teams rankings. The latter makes more sense to me.


I think it’s more the former. It speaks to the lack of DMV 28 talent depth. Those players would have stayed if depth was stronger. The good players didn’t have a strong cast around them. Can’t blame them for leaving. 28 players who left the DMV for MD did so out of necessity. Had 28 DMV been as strong as prior years (and following year) most would have stayed in the DMV as the 25s, 26s, 27s did (and 29s have).


The data shows the VA teams are performing normally, in line with historical averages. Perhaps it is true Montgomery County did not have enough talent to prop up the the Montgomery Teams teams, so the good players left for greener pastures. But to suggest the entire DMV lacks depth because BLC sucks is ridiculous.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Again - I am not sure why you care about making this point but lets indulge for a second - I think the point is not the number of players so much as it is the caliber of players - you get one or two impactful players to stay at BLC for instance and it can cause a ripple effect the same way them leaving can do the same.

But again - I get it that we can discuss anything etc but I am genuinely not sure why this matters?


There's an axe to grind here. Not sure the motivation, but the poster sure is motivated.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Again - I am not sure why you care about making this point but lets indulge for a second - I think the point is not the number of players so much as it is the caliber of players - you get one or two impactful players to stay at BLC for instance and it can cause a ripple effect the same way them leaving can do the same.

But again - I get it that we can discuss anything etc but I am genuinely not sure why this matters?


There's an axe to grind here. Not sure the motivation, but the poster sure is motivated.


Right?!!
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Again - I am not sure why you care about making this point but lets indulge for a second - I think the point is not the number of players so much as it is the caliber of players - you get one or two impactful players to stay at BLC for instance and it can cause a ripple effect the same way them leaving can do the same.

But again - I get it that we can discuss anything etc but I am genuinely not sure why this matters?


There's an axe to grind here. Not sure the motivation, but the poster sure is motivated.


Agree with the last two posts. There is at least one guy who really, really wants to make the point that DMV is down in either talent or depth (not clear) this year. Not sure if the poster who took the time to do the in-depth analysis is the same person. Either way, the notion that the DC area is down at the 2028 level keeps popping up, and it is not clear why anyone would be so invested in making that point, which paints with a very broad and negative brush, to no particular end.

Life goes on. There are some great players in this area. Capital will field a 2028 team and be a top ranked club nationally. Just like the last several years.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Again - I am not sure why you care about making this point but lets indulge for a second - I think the point is not the number of players so much as it is the caliber of players - you get one or two impactful players to stay at BLC for instance and it can cause a ripple effect the same way them leaving can do the same.

But again - I get it that we can discuss anything etc but I am genuinely not sure why this matters?


There's an axe to grind here. Not sure the motivation, but the poster sure is motivated.


So, special poster: why are you so focused on this issue? Please explain the motivation.
Anonymous
Hopefully this 28 thread will be shut down soon.
Anonymous
Even IF Baltimore teams are stronger than local DMV teams, there is absolutely no world where they are so much better that it’s worth making that drive on a regular basis. You can get similar recruiting results close to home so this really is just a pissing contest being perpetuated by parents with something to prove.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Again - I am not sure why you care about making this point but lets indulge for a second - I think the point is not the number of players so much as it is the caliber of players - you get one or two impactful players to stay at BLC for instance and it can cause a ripple effect the same way them leaving can do the same.

But again - I get it that we can discuss anything etc but I am genuinely not sure why this matters?


But there’s a reason those two impactful players, to use your example, would want to leave. They were running from something, rather than running toward something. They would have stayed had the rest of the talent on the team been at their level.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.


You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)


I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.


Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.


Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.


Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)



ok this is crazy - why are you so determined to make this point? I am not sure how it impacts you?


Because the point has been made, many times in the recent and distant past on this thread, that players are leaving the DMV in big numbers for MD teams. Even with the additions some have noted to the 25s (thanks for those updates), the data puts that claim to rest.

2028 data isn’t available, but when it is, my guess is we’ll see a higher percentage of DMV players on Md teams since the depth of talent across the board isn’t as strong. But given the better performance of the 29s, the number of DMVers heading north will likely return to the <10 trend.


The data shows that any change at 2028 is related to Montgomery County teams. Either 1) MoCo talent has dropped off generally, or 2) the flight of players to MD teams has adversely impacted the MD teams rankings. The latter makes more sense to me.


I think it’s more the former. It speaks to the lack of DMV 28 talent depth. Those players would have stayed if depth was stronger. The good players didn’t have a strong cast around them. Can’t blame them for leaving. 28 players who left the DMV for MD did so out of necessity. Had 28 DMV been as strong as prior years (and following year) most would have stayed in the DMV as the 25s, 26s, 27s did (and 29s have).


The data shows the VA teams are performing normally, in line with historical averages. Perhaps it is true Montgomery County did not have enough talent to prop up the the Montgomery Teams teams, so the good players left for greener pastures. But to suggest the entire DMV lacks depth because BLC sucks is ridiculous.


The sizable drop in national average at the 28 level tells the story. Those numbers don’t lie.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Even IF Baltimore teams are stronger than local DMV teams, there is absolutely no world where they are so much better that it’s worth making that drive on a regular basis. You can get similar recruiting results close to home so this really is just a pissing contest being perpetuated by parents with something to prove.

Understand your point but if you can handle the drive it gives options other than putting all your eggs in the Capital basket…and your DD can get into one of the MD teams well before 9th grade. Bottom line if your DD can make any of those 4 teams (especially Blue, Black, Green, Blue) she will have great development and options at the next level if that’s what she’s aiming for.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Even IF Baltimore teams are stronger than local DMV teams, there is absolutely no world where they are so much better that it’s worth making that drive on a regular basis. You can get similar recruiting results close to home so this really is just a pissing contest being perpetuated by parents with something to prove.

Understand your point but if you can handle the drive it gives options other than putting all your eggs in the Capital basket…and your DD can get into one of the MD teams well before 9th grade. Bottom line if your DD can make any of those 4 teams (especially Blue, Black, Green, Blue) she will have great development and options at the next level if that’s what she’s aiming for.


This is correct. No disrespect, but some moms work and commuting to Howard or Baltimore is not possible M-F. Best case scenario you make Capital and have exactly the same outcome.
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