2028 Girls Lacrosse

[Anonymous]

And SW 25 Blue has a girl from Ashburn, VA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.

Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)

This is current year data for 9th, 10th, and 11th graders from DMV?

The suggestion was that there has been "drain" at the 2028 age level, so I think it would be more relevant to the discussion to show current 8th graders (2028s) from the DMV playing on top MD teams vs the 2027s when they were in 8th grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.

YJMA 2030 is solid and will get better this spring. The top 2030 team in in the area by a wide margin is BLC. The same goes for 2031 and 2032. BLC has down a great job with the younger grades.

You're saying the BLC 2030 team ranked #16 is the top team in the area by a wide margin over the YJMA 2030 team ranked #11?

Thats is correct. Don't put too much weight behind a fall ranking.

[Anonymous]

I keep reading this circus.... parents arguing about who is more talented, and where top players will end up at what club. One importantfactor that has huge impact on the success of the future of these teams and player development-- and knowing what college coaches are looking for... is the quality of the coaches, and how they manage the team.. So very critical.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Because there should be a delineation between “D.C. or DMV” programs and Baltimore programs so we all have a standard reference point. Especially when folks talk about kids moving from D.C. teams to Baltimore teams. For example, moving from MC Elite to BLC to Pride to Stars is staying within D.C.

who cares

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hero's has really been a big beneficiary of MC Elite spiraling across all age groups. MC Elite 2027s really never were very good as many of the lower A/B level girls went to Next Level or Rebels if they didn't make BLC or go to Baltimore teams.

Hero's is also Howard county so not exactly Baltimore, more in between Baltimore and Dc

MoCo should be considered D.C. while Howard should be considered Baltimore. Howard is closer to Baltimore and no one living there is going to choose a D.C. team over a Baltimore team if they can make the top Baltimore teams (Hero's, M&D, SkyWalkers, etc.)

Why does this person care so much about this part?

lol SO much so that they went to the Maryland forum on BOTC and posted the following “DC lacrosse thread seems to think that Hero's is a Howard Co team so half Baltimore/half DC team? Thoughts?”

Are you kidding me?! Wow

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.

Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)

ok this is crazy - why are you so determined to make this point? I am not sure how it impacts you?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.

YJMA 2030 is solid and will get better this spring. The top 2030 team in in the area by a wide margin is BLC. The same goes for 2031 and 2032. BLC has down a great job with the younger grades.

You're saying the BLC 2030 team ranked #16 is the top team in the area by a wide margin over the YJMA 2030 team ranked #11?

Thats is correct. Don't put too much weight behind a fall ranking.

subjective opinions of BLC parent/coaches are way more reliable than a third-party ranking

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.

Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)

ok this is crazy - why are you so determined to make this point? I am not sure how it impacts you?

Because the point has been made, many times in the recent and distant past on this thread, that players are leaving the DMV in big numbers for MD teams. Even with the additions some have noted to the 25s (thanks for those updates), the data puts that claim to rest.

2028 data isn’t available, but when it is, my guess is we’ll see a higher percentage of DMV players on Md teams since the depth of talent across the board isn’t as strong. But given the better performance of the 29s, the number of DMVers heading north will likely return to the <10 trend.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.

YJMA 2030 is solid and will get better this spring. The top 2030 team in in the area by a wide margin is BLC. The same goes for 2031 and 2032. BLC has down a great job with the younger grades.

You're saying the BLC 2030 team ranked #16 is the top team in the area by a wide margin over the YJMA 2030 team ranked #11?

Thats is correct. Don't put too much weight behind a fall ranking.

subjective opinions of BLC parent/coaches are way more reliable than a third-party ranking

STJ Stars are best team in area by a wide margin. Rankings are definitely wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.

YJMA 2030 is solid and will get better this spring. The top 2030 team in in the area by a wide margin is BLC. The same goes for 2031 and 2032. BLC has down a great job with the younger grades.

You're saying the BLC 2030 team ranked #16 is the top team in the area by a wide margin over the YJMA 2030 team ranked #11?

Thats is correct. Don't put too much weight behind a fall ranking.

subjective opinions of BLC parent/coaches are way more reliable than a third-party ranking

STJ Stars are best team in area by a wide margin. Rankings are definitely wrong.

Ahem, I think you spelled Pride incorrectly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.

YJMA 2030 is solid and will get better this spring. The top 2030 team in in the area by a wide margin is BLC. The same goes for 2031 and 2032. BLC has down a great job with the younger grades.

You're saying the BLC 2030 team ranked #16 is the top team in the area by a wide margin over the YJMA 2030 team ranked #11?

Thats is correct. Don't put too much weight behind a fall ranking.

subjective opinions of BLC parent/coaches are way more reliable than a third-party ranking

STJ Stars are best team in area by a wide margin. Rankings are definitely wrong.

Ahem, I think you spelled Pride incorrectly.

Pride used to be the best club. STJ has passed them

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.

Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)

ok this is crazy - why are you so determined to make this point? I am not sure how it impacts you?

Because the point has been made, many times in the recent and distant past on this thread, that players are leaving the DMV in big numbers for MD teams. Even with the additions some have noted to the 25s (thanks for those updates), the data puts that claim to rest.

2028 data isn’t available, but when it is, my guess is we’ll see a higher percentage of DMV players on Md teams since the depth of talent across the board isn’t as strong. But given the better performance of the 29s, the number of DMVers heading north will likely return to the <10 trend.

The data shows that any change at 2028 is related to Montgomery County teams. Either 1) MoCo talent has dropped off generally, or 2) the flight of players to MD teams has adversely impacted the MD teams rankings. The latter makes more sense to me.

[Anonymous]

3d VA coming for all of you

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.

Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)

ok this is crazy - why are you so determined to make this point? I am not sure how it impacts you?

Because the point has been made, many times in the recent and distant past on this thread, that players are leaving the DMV in big numbers for MD teams. Even with the additions some have noted to the 25s (thanks for those updates), the data puts that claim to rest.

2028 data isn’t available, but when it is, my guess is we’ll see a higher percentage of DMV players on Md teams since the depth of talent across the board isn’t as strong. But given the better performance of the 29s, the number of DMVers heading north will likely return to the <10 trend.

The data shows that any change at 2028 is related to Montgomery County teams. Either 1) MoCo talent has dropped off generally, or 2) the flight of players to MD teams has adversely impacted the MD teams rankings. The latter makes more sense to me.

Flight of players to Baltimore teams