Predictions on how many TJ applicants there will be this year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

"Thank you!! Super helpful. Have these questions appeared on paper in prior budget discussions? Surprised this isn't more widely reported - but then, the fervor for TJ doesn't exist in Arlington to quite the same extent as it does in other local communities."

There has been some discussion on AEM and other Facebook groups. At least one Board member (RG) responded when asked about this: "What should we cut instead?" The obvious and snarky response, of course, was "Board member salaries," but I don't think anyone actually said that. Don't know whether the money which might flow from the recently passed COVID-relief bill might "save" some of these Tier 1 cuts, which also included things like Middle School sports and extra-curricular clubs like Math Counts and Science Olympiad.

Amusingly, if you cut TJ, you'd probably eliminate a lot of the demand for Math Counts and Science Olympiad. Not all of it, to be sure, but a fair amount. I wonder how many APS students eschew middle school sports in favor of stuff that "will help them get into TJ". I will tell you it happens a TON in Fairfax and Loudoun, even though sports out there are club-based.

Arlington would only send 12-15 kids every admissions cycle. That is out of 7 middle schools so you are talking one or two kids per school getting in to start with. Most kids don't waste their time even thinking about TJ in Arlington since the county has great high schools. Arlington has been talking about dropping out of TJ for years. I assume it will happen in the next year or two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is pretty good chance that Arlington will be ending its participation at TJ starting with this year's 8th graders. This willl remove a number of people from the potential pool of applicants or, at the very least, dampen the number of Arlington applicants who might say: "Why bother applying if they won't let me attend even if I get in." I think this is a terrible decision on the part of APS.

Loudoun has been talking about doing this forever, but this is the first I've heard of Arlington exploring it. What's a source on this?

Its the most likely group of budget cuts (Tier 1). Here is a link to questions that have been posed about. https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/FY-2022-Budget-Questions-and-Responses_Distributed-March-8-2021.pdf. Note that I believe that prior court cases would prohibit Arlington from allowing kids to go but requiring them to pay tuition.

Thank you!! Super helpful. Have these questions appeared on paper in prior budget discussions? Surprised this isn't more widely reported - but then, the fervor for TJ doesn't exist in Arlington to quite the same extent as it does in other local communities.

It literally comes up every year: https://www.insidenova.com/news/arlington/tj-participation-again-on-chopping-block-in-arlington-school-budget/article_92912ce0-547b-11e9-9668-e34222b711ff.html

[Anonymous]

If it is cut, those TJ type families in Arlington will just move to Fairfax instead. It would only hurt Arlington.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

"Thank you!! Super helpful. Have these questions appeared on paper in prior budget discussions? Surprised this isn't more widely reported - but then, the fervor for TJ doesn't exist in Arlington to quite the same extent as it does in other local communities."

There has been some discussion on AEM and other Facebook groups. At least one Board member (RG) responded when asked about this: "What should we cut instead?" The obvious and snarky response, of course, was "Board member salaries," but I don't think anyone actually said that. Don't know whether the money which might flow from the recently passed COVID-relief bill might "save" some of these Tier 1 cuts, which also included things like Middle School sports and extra-curricular clubs like Math Counts and Science Olympiad.

Amusingly, if you cut TJ, you'd probably eliminate a lot of the demand for Math Counts and Science Olympiad. Not all of it, to be sure, but a fair amount. I wonder how many APS students eschew middle school sports in favor of stuff that "will help them get into TJ". I will tell you it happens a TON in Fairfax and Loudoun, even though sports out there are club-based.

Arlington would only send 12-15 kids every admissions cycle. That is out of 7 middle schools so you are talking one or two kids per school getting in to start with. Most kids don't waste their time even thinking about TJ in Arlington since the county has great high schools. Arlington has been talking about dropping out of TJ for years. I assume it will happen in the next year or two.

This is a fair point, but substantially all of the APS TJ cohort comes from Williamsburg (mostly) and Swanson (a few) with an odd exception here or there from Jefferson or maybe Kenmore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

"Thank you!! Super helpful. Have these questions appeared on paper in prior budget discussions? Surprised this isn't more widely reported - but then, the fervor for TJ doesn't exist in Arlington to quite the same extent as it does in other local communities."

There has been some discussion on AEM and other Facebook groups. At least one Board member (RG) responded when asked about this: "What should we cut instead?" The obvious and snarky response, of course, was "Board member salaries," but I don't think anyone actually said that. Don't know whether the money which might flow from the recently passed COVID-relief bill might "save" some of these Tier 1 cuts, which also included things like Middle School sports and extra-curricular clubs like Math Counts and Science Olympiad.

Amusingly, if you cut TJ, you'd probably eliminate a lot of the demand for Math Counts and Science Olympiad. Not all of it, to be sure, but a fair amount. I wonder how many APS students eschew middle school sports in favor of stuff that "will help them get into TJ". I will tell you it happens a TON in Fairfax and Loudoun, even though sports out there are club-based.

Arlington would only send 12-15 kids every admissions cycle. That is out of 7 middle schools so you are talking one or two kids per school getting in to start with. Most kids don't waste their time even thinking about TJ in Arlington since the county has great high schools. Arlington has been talking about dropping out of TJ for years. I assume it will happen in the next year or two.

This is a fair point, but substantially all of the APS TJ cohort comes from Williamsburg (mostly) and Swanson (a few) with an odd exception here or there from Jefferson or maybe Kenmore.

But now is it the top 1.5% from each school? Or is that only for FCPS?

[Anonymous]

Queue up the whiners, complainers, rationalizers, and haters.

This I know - TJ will open next year an excited cohort of first year students notwithstanding all your lawsuits and handwringing

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Queue up the whiners, complainers, rationalizers, and haters.

This I know - TJ will open next year an excited cohort of first year students notwithstanding all your lawsuits and handwringing

[phone]

It's morning in Alexandria.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

"Thank you!! Super helpful. Have these questions appeared on paper in prior budget discussions? Surprised this isn't more widely reported - but then, the fervor for TJ doesn't exist in Arlington to quite the same extent as it does in other local communities."

There has been some discussion on AEM and other Facebook groups. At least one Board member (RG) responded when asked about this: "What should we cut instead?" The obvious and snarky response, of course, was "Board member salaries," but I don't think anyone actually said that. Don't know whether the money which might flow from the recently passed COVID-relief bill might "save" some of these Tier 1 cuts, which also included things like Middle School sports and extra-curricular clubs like Math Counts and Science Olympiad.

Amusingly, if you cut TJ, you'd probably eliminate a lot of the demand for Math Counts and Science Olympiad. Not all of it, to be sure, but a fair amount. I wonder how many APS students eschew middle school sports in favor of stuff that "will help them get into TJ". I will tell you it happens a TON in Fairfax and Loudoun, even though sports out there are club-based.

What is your evidence of this? MathCounts teams are only ten students max from each school. In Loudoun, River Bend is a top Science Olympiad and MathCounts school, and they only get a few admissions to Academies of Loudoun. Willard got by far the most seats into AoL and have a terrible MathCounts team. Stone Hill does well in both and has many admissions, but there is no evidence the two are related, as the size of the teams is very limited at Stone Hill, well below the number of applicants or the number admitted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Queue up the whiners, complainers, rationalizers, and haters.

This I know - TJ will open next year an excited cohort of first year students notwithstanding all your lawsuits and handwringing

This I know - The Class of 2025 will have historically low SAT scores, MIT admissions, Ivy Admissions, NMSF, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Queue up the whiners, complainers, rationalizers, and haters.

This I know - TJ will open next year an excited cohort of first year students notwithstanding all your lawsuits and handwringing

This I know - The Class of 2025 will have historically low SAT scores, MIT admissions, Ivy Admissions, NMSF, etc.

Nah. TJ does poorly enough on Ivy/MIT as it is relative to what they should do.

SATs and NMSF, sure, but exam scores are rapidly becoming a relic of the past in terms of stuff anyone cares about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Queue up the whiners, complainers, rationalizers, and haters.

This I know - TJ will open next year an excited cohort of first year students notwithstanding all your lawsuits and handwringing

And most importantly, fewer Asian Americans. Testify, PP!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Queue up the whiners, complainers, rationalizers, and haters.

This I know - TJ will open next year an excited cohort of first year students notwithstanding all your lawsuits and handwringing

This I know - The Class of 2025 will have historically low SAT scores, MIT admissions, Ivy Admissions, NMSF, etc.

Nah. TJ does poorly enough on Ivy/MIT as it is relative to what they should do.

SATs and NMSF, sure, but exam scores are rapidly becoming a relic of the past in terms of stuff anyone cares about.

Are you kidding? They have huge number of elite admissions— can’t compete with the white privilege boarding schools, buy other than that, huge numbers!

[Anonymous]

What no one wants to admit is that the kids who will be most impacted by these changes are the relatively mediocre kids who have always been able to pose as talented through artificially inflated exam scores. It’s not like the actual cream of the crop is going to be impacted by these changes in any way.

You just have a ton of parents who are afraid that their dime-a-dozen kid is gonna get exposed for what they are, when that kid would have far better college prospects at their base school anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Queue up the whiners, complainers, rationalizers, and haters.

This I know - TJ will open next year an excited cohort of first year students notwithstanding all your lawsuits and handwringing

This I know - The Class of 2025 will have historically low SAT scores, MIT admissions, Ivy Admissions, NMSF, etc.

Nah. TJ does poorly enough on Ivy/MIT as it is relative to what they should do.

SATs and NMSF, sure, but exam scores are rapidly becoming a relic of the past in terms of stuff anyone cares about.

Are you kidding? They have huge number of elite admissions— can’t compete with the white privilege boarding schools, buy other than that, huge numbers!

When you combine all of the Ivies, MIT, and Caltech, about 10% of TJ graduates end up in those places - in a GOOD year. Those are the facts.

It’s a good number, but given the total obsession with those schools to the exclusion of everyone else? Meh.

And by the way - it’s the athletes that get in!

[Anonymous]

I think the number of applications will be up this year just like the college applications are up this year due to test optional. But the quality of the student body will definitely take a hit as traditional powerhouses: Longfellow, Carson, and Rocky Run face a cap. It will be a different school. McLean, Langley , Oakton, Chantilly, and privates will see a small boost. Gradually TJ will just become another STEM academy.