For every 1,000 kids returning to a D.C. school, four will likely be infected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why does everyone assume a masked kid who is infected will infect other kids or teachers who are also masked and presumably, socially-distanced? This is far from a given.

Good probability they will infect other kids or teacher esp if 10 years or older. In addition, the greatest risk of infection is to other family members, kids bringing it home. That is what I read somewhere was the highest percentage of transmission of infection in China

Not really. Researchers say with face masks, the chance of infection or transmission is only 3%. Without masks it rises to 17%--still far from a sure thing.

https://www.livescience.com/face-masks-eye-protection-covid-19-prevention.html

Let's assume at a school like Wilson each kid comes in contact with 100 people each day. So a 3% transmission rate means one infected kid infects three other people. If they start with a 0.8% infection rate that's 16 kids on the first day. Then they infect 48 more and that's 64. Then those 64 infect 192 more and it's 256. If they don't shut the school it doesn't take long before everyone in the school has it.

Thanks for doing the math. I guess people need to really understand how exponential growth works and quickly COVID-19 can spread. Just look at the camp in Georgia.

No, PP is wrong. One infected COVID person does not infect 3 more people. That would require the R0 to be 3.

In DC, the R0 is estimated to be 1.02, which means one infected kid would infect one other kid.

https://rt.live/

To add: so this is how it could work. If all 4 kids infected 1 kid each, you’d then have 8 infected kids. Then 16, then 32, etc. However, there’s no indication that every infected kid will infected another kid.

By that math the first four kids keep infecting more people...I don’t think that is correct for an R of 1.

[Anonymous]

Either way, kids are infecting other kids, and then those kids will infect their families. This is why community spread needs to be curtailed. This is the problem the US faces. Other countries have measures in place to combat community spread. At least they are trying. Bowser and Ferebee made the correct call for 100% DL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why does everyone assume a masked kid who is infected will infect other kids or teachers who are also masked and presumably, socially-distanced? This is far from a given.

Good probability they will infect other kids or teacher esp if 10 years or older. In addition, the greatest risk of infection is to other family members, kids bringing it home. That is what I read somewhere was the highest percentage of transmission of infection in China

Not really. Researchers say with face masks, the chance of infection or transmission is only 3%. Without masks it rises to 17%--still far from a sure thing.

https://www.livescience.com/face-masks-eye-protection-covid-19-prevention.html

Let's assume at a school like Wilson each kid comes in contact with 100 people each day. So a 3% transmission rate means one infected kid infects three other people. If they start with a 0.8% infection rate that's 16 kids on the first day. Then they infect 48 more and that's 64. Then those 64 infect 192 more and it's 256. If they don't shut the school it doesn't take long before everyone in the school has it.

Thanks for doing the math. I guess people need to really understand how exponential growth works and quickly COVID-19 can spread. Just look at the camp in Georgia.

No, PP is wrong. One infected COVID person does not infect 3 more people. That would require the R0 to be 3.

In DC, the R0 is estimated to be 1.02, which means one infected kid would infect one other kid.

https://rt.live/

To add: so this is how it could work. If all 4 kids infected 1 kid each, you’d then have 8 infected kids. Then 16, then 32, etc. However, there’s no indication that every infected kid will infected another kid.

By that math the first four kids keep infecting more people...I don’t think that is correct for an R of 1.

There is zero reason to believe that the R in schools would be 1 or anything close to it.

[Anonymous]

We need a national lockdown of one month. Instead we will prolong this pain and suffering for a year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why does everyone assume a masked kid who is infected will infect other kids or teachers who are also masked and presumably, socially-distanced? This is far from a given.

Good probability they will infect other kids or teacher esp if 10 years or older. In addition, the greatest risk of infection is to other family members, kids bringing it home. That is what I read somewhere was the highest percentage of transmission of infection in China

Not really. Researchers say with face masks, the chance of infection or transmission is only 3%. Without masks it rises to 17%--still far from a sure thing.

https://www.livescience.com/face-masks-eye-protection-covid-19-prevention.html

Let's assume at a school like Wilson each kid comes in contact with 100 people each day. So a 3% transmission rate means one infected kid infects three other people. If they start with a 0.8% infection rate that's 16 kids on the first day. Then they infect 48 more and that's 64. Then those 64 infect 192 more and it's 256. If they don't shut the school it doesn't take long before everyone in the school has it.

Thanks for doing the math. I guess people need to really understand how exponential growth works and quickly COVID-19 can spread. Just look at the camp in Georgia.

No, PP is wrong. One infected COVID person does not infect 3 more people. That would require the R0 to be 3.

In DC, the R0 is estimated to be 1.02, which means one infected kid would infect one other kid.

https://rt.live/

To add: so this is how it could work. If all 4 kids infected 1 kid each, you’d then have 8 infected kids. Then 16, then 32, etc. However, there’s no indication that every infected kid will infected another kid.

By that math the first four kids keep infecting more people...I don’t think that is correct for an R of 1.

There is zero reason to believe that the R in schools would be 1 or anything close to it.

Yes. There's an R of 1 because things are closed, people are staying home, and people are wearing masks. In schools, masks are optional, people will be gathering in large groups, and ventilation is bad. If one kid in a class is infected, there's a good chance that many other students in that class will be as well (not to mention the kids from other classes who are in the bathroom with them, riding the bus with them, etc.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We need a national lockdown of one month. Instead we will prolong this pain and suffering for a year.

2-3

[Anonymous]

So we'd get herd immunity by years' end? Lets do it and get it over with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So we'd get herd immunity by years' end? Lets do it and get it over with.

Herd immunity is not a thing without vaccines - there were repeated episodes of smallpox for hundreds of years until there was a smallpox vaccine! And there’s no guarantee that getting COVID19 means you will never get it again. Just like getting chickenpox actually puts you at risk of shingles later on in life. Not to mention that it’s impossible to know which person who gets it will end up on a vent and which person will be asymptomatic. For me, these are all excellent reasons not to risk my child’s health or that of his teachers, school staff and family.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So we'd get herd immunity by years' end? Lets do it and get it over with.

Herd immunity is not a thing without vaccines - there were repeated episodes of smallpox for hundreds of years until there was a smallpox vaccine! And there’s no guarantee that getting COVID19 means you will never get it again. Just like getting chickenpox actually puts you at risk of shingles later on in life. Not to mention that it’s impossible to know which person who gets it will end up on a vent and which person will be asymptomatic. For me, these are all excellent reasons not to risk my child’s health or that of his teachers, school staff and family.

Or more recently, the virus that caused the 1918 influenza pandemic was never eradicated. It mutated and became less virulent and has been with us ever since as the annual flu. We have never developed herd immunity because it mutates every year and have been only partially effective at developing vaccines. Some years the mutation is more lethal and it kills more people, some years less.