Reply to For every 1,000 kids returning to a D.C. school, four will likely be infected.

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Reply to "For every 1,000 kids returning to a D.C. school, four will likely be infected. "

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Why does everyone assume a masked kid who is infected will infect other kids or teachers who are also masked and presumably, socially-distanced?  This is far from a given.[/quote]

[b]Good probability[/b] they will infect other kids or teacher esp if 10 years or older.  In addition, the greatest risk of infection is to other family members, kids bringing it home.  That is what I read somewhere was the highest percentage of transmission of infection in China [/quote]

Not really. Researchers say with face masks, the chance of infection or transmission is only 3%. Without masks it rises to 17%--still far from a sure thing.

[url]https://www.livescience.com/face-masks-eye-protection-covid-19-prevention.html[/url][/quote]

Let's assume at a school like Wilson each kid comes in contact with 100 people each day. So a 3% transmission rate means one infected kid infects three other people. If they start with a 0.8% infection rate that's 16 kids on the first day. Then they infect 48 more and that's 64. Then those 64 infect 192 more and it's 256. If they don't shut the school it doesn't take long before everyone in the school has it. [/quote]

Thanks for doing the math. I guess people need to really understand how exponential growth works and quickly COVID-19 can spread. Just look at the camp in Georgia.[/quote]

No, PP is wrong. One infected COVID person does not infect 3 more people. That would require the R0 to be 3.

In DC, the R0 is estimated to be 1.02, which means one infected kid would infect one other kid.

https://rt.live/[/quote]

To add: so this is how it could work. If all 4 kids infected 1 kid each, you’d then have 8 infected kids. Then 16, then 32, etc. However, there’s no indication that every infected kid will infected another kid.[/quote]

By that math the first four kids keep infecting more people...I don’t think that is correct for an R of 1.[/quote]

There is zero reason to believe that the R in schools would be 1 or anything close to it. [/quote]
Yes. There's an R of 1 because things are closed, people are staying home, and people are wearing masks. In schools, masks are optional, people will be gathering in large groups, and ventilation is bad. If one kid in a class is infected, there's a good chance that many other students in that class will be as well (not to mention the kids from other classes who are in the bathroom with them, riding the bus with them, etc.)[/quote]

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