So is MOCO just never opening?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We were supposed to shelter until hospitals weren’t overwhelmed. Hospitals are empty. Then the surge was coming. Never came. Then the models predicted devastation. All the models were wrong. We’ve passed the point of common sense.

Certainly we saved lives by doing the lockdown, but yes — you’re right.

As I’ve posted before, the hospitals in MD have not been overwhelmed, with the exception of Holy Cross Silver Spring and White Oak.

Hogan’s team has been touting today that hospitalizations in the state are at their lowest levels in 3 weeks. Elrich and Gayles need to publish MoCo hospitalization numbers, to justify why we need a continued lockdown, amid all of that.

Whatever we have, it's not a lockdown. It's not anywhere close to a lockdown. It's basically a voluntary please-stay-at-home request with schools and some businesses closed.

Oh really? It seems like about 50 percent of restaurants are closed (and obviously the ones that are open are open for takeout and delivery only). And then literally every non essential business is closed. How is that "some"? Playgrounds are also still closed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We were supposed to shelter until hospitals weren’t overwhelmed. Hospitals are empty. Then the surge was coming. Never came. Then the models predicted devastation. All the models were wrong. We’ve passed the point of common sense.

Certainly we saved lives by doing the lockdown, but yes — you’re right.

As I’ve posted before, the hospitals in MD have not been overwhelmed, with the exception of Holy Cross Silver Spring and White Oak.

Hogan’s team has been touting today that hospitalizations in the state are at their lowest levels in 3 weeks. Elrich and Gayles need to publish MoCo hospitalization numbers, to justify why we need a continued lockdown, amid all of that.

Whatever we have, it's not a lockdown. It's not anywhere close to a lockdown. It's basically a voluntary please-stay-at-home request with schools and some businesses closed.

Oh really? It seems like about 50 percent of restaurants are closed (and obviously the ones that are open are open for takeout and delivery only). And then literally every non essential business is closed. How is that "some"? Playgrounds are also still closed.

OK, so half of the restaurants are closed. And the stores that don't somehow fit into the very broad definition of "essential" are closed. And public playgrounds are wrapped in caution tape and/or construction fencing. That makes it a lockdown? Not in my definition of the word.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We were supposed to shelter until hospitals weren’t overwhelmed. Hospitals are empty. Then the surge was coming. Never came. Then the models predicted devastation. All the models were wrong. We’ve passed the point of common sense.

Certainly we saved lives by doing the lockdown, but yes — you’re right.

As I’ve posted before, the hospitals in MD have not been overwhelmed, with the exception of Holy Cross Silver Spring and White Oak.

Hogan’s team has been touting today that hospitalizations in the state are at their lowest levels in 3 weeks. Elrich and Gayles need to publish MoCo hospitalization numbers, to justify why we need a continued lockdown, amid all of that.

Whatever we have, it's not a lockdown. It's not anywhere close to a lockdown. It's basically a voluntary please-stay-at-home request with schools and some businesses closed.

Oh really? It seems like about 50 percent of restaurants are closed (and obviously the ones that are open are open for takeout and delivery only). And then literally every non essential business is closed. How is that "some"? Playgrounds are also still closed.

OK, so half of the restaurants are closed. And the stores that don't somehow fit into the very broad definition of "essential" are closed. And public playgrounds are wrapped in caution tape and/or construction fencing. That makes it a lockdown? Not in my definition of the word.

Right. State parks are open. In other counties, retail stores can open with limited capacity. Even in MoCo, outdoor sports are allowed. So really, we don’t have a stay at home order in place in practice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
OP, you are going to be confined for the rest of your life. There was an official announcement on the matter.

There, is that what you wanted to hear?

Well, when they put up mathematically unattainable metrics, like a 14-day decline on deaths, when we’re averaging 12 per day, then yeah — that would imply no end date because the criteria for reopening are not feasible.

I read you posting that before, and it didn't make sense to me then, and it still doesn't make sense to me. You seem to assume that the rolling average number of deaths must be a whole number. It doesn't need to be, and it wouldn't make sense to do it that way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If they wait for this virus to go away on its own or decrease it won’t. There needs to be a vax and that’s not for a long tome. This is NOT sustainable living and we need to learn how to function and live with it. This is becoming ridiculous. We have to adjust to the new normal like it or not!

No, they are not waiting for a vaccine. No one is. States, counties -- and other countries -- are reopening by the number of new cases. We all know that.

That was my point

Not waiting for a vaccine doesn't mean we have to accept the "new normal." It means we have to be patient and wait until the number of infections go down. This is not rocket science.

[Anonymous]

I'm so glad we have the local leadership in place that we do, and not the "open now or stay closed FOREVER" posters, who don't seem able to think straight.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm so glad we have the local leadership in place that we do, and not the "open now or stay closed FOREVER" posters, who don't seem able to think straight.

Oh so you’re the one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
OP, you are going to be confined for the rest of your life. There was an official announcement on the matter.

There, is that what you wanted to hear?

Well, when they put up mathematically unattainable metrics, like a 14-day decline on deaths, when we’re averaging 12 per day, then yeah — that would imply no end date because the criteria for reopening are not feasible.

I read you posting that before, and it didn't make sense to me then, and it still doesn't make sense to me. You seem to assume that the rolling average number of deaths must be a whole number. It doesn't need to be, and it wouldn't make sense to do it that way.

I don’t care about a whole number. Explain to me how you get a 14-day decline when you start with a number under 14.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm so glad we have the local leadership in place that we do, and not the "open now or stay closed FOREVER" posters, who don't seem able to think straight.

Oh so you’re the one.

The many. That's how they got elected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
OP, you are going to be confined for the rest of your life. There was an official announcement on the matter.

There, is that what you wanted to hear?

Well, when they put up mathematically unattainable metrics, like a 14-day decline on deaths, when we’re averaging 12 per day, then yeah — that would imply no end date because the criteria for reopening are not feasible.

I read you posting that before, and it didn't make sense to me then, and it still doesn't make sense to me. You seem to assume that the rolling average number of deaths must be a whole number. It doesn't need to be, and it wouldn't make sense to do it that way.

I don’t care about a whole number. Explain to me how you get a 14-day decline when you start with a number under 14.

Edited to add:

I suppose unless you decline ever so slightly, so that you go from, say, 12 avg daily deaths down to, I don’t know, 7 avg daily deaths?

Frankly, the number is so small to begin with that I’m not sure we should be keeping the county closed over it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We were supposed to shelter until hospitals weren’t overwhelmed. Hospitals are empty. Then the surge was coming. Never came. Then the models predicted devastation. All the models were wrong. We’ve passed the point of common sense.

The hospitals aren't empty. Also, the surge did come. Also, models aren't intended to be crystal balls.

Yes, 2 SS hospitals have been overtaxed. Otherwise, the MD hospitals have not been overwhelmed.

You can track it right here:

https://www.miemssalert.com/chats/Default.aspx?hdRegion=5&hdReportRegion=V&hdReport=Hospital%20Summary%20Report

So when the first responders say that critical care beds are almost full, they're just making stuff up?

Ask them to specify which facilities they’re talking about.

Hogan said the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and the alert system backs him up.

https://twitter.com/mcfrsPIO/status/1261979977794441216

Blue alert happens anytime ANY hospital is overtaxed.

This.

If you click Maryland EMS:
https://www.miemssalert.com/chats/Default.aspx?hdRegion=5&hdReportRegion=V&hdReport=Hospital%20Summary%20Report

It shows only Holy Cross on red. Then click on the Counties tab, and because one hospital is in red, that puts MoCo on blue alert.

So MCFRS is correct that MoCo is on blue alert, but that's not as bad as it seems to be. Only one hospital is at capacity in the county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Oh really? It seems like about 50 percent of restaurants are closed (and obviously the ones that are open are open for takeout and delivery only). And then literally every non essential business is closed. How is that "some"? Playgrounds are also still closed.

I went to pick up take-out as a restaurant we used to frequent, last night. So a Saturday night, busiest time of week usually.

It was just sad. One person at the door to hand out the take-out orders, and 3 tables set up, one fro Uber, doordash, and grubhub, each with 2-3 orders each. The cook was milling about in the empty restaurant with nothing to do. That place used to be bustling on a Saturday night. It reminded me of the one time I visited a nightclub during the day before it was open. Just an empty, quiet shell. I feel bad for the owners.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We were supposed to shelter until hospitals weren’t overwhelmed. Hospitals are empty. Then the surge was coming. Never came. Then the models predicted devastation. All the models were wrong. We’ve passed the point of common sense.

The hospitals aren't empty. Also, the surge did come. Also, models aren't intended to be crystal balls.

Yes, 2 SS hospitals have been overtaxed. Otherwise, the MD hospitals have not been overwhelmed.

You can track it right here:

https://www.miemssalert.com/chats/Default.aspx?hdRegion=5&hdReportRegion=V&hdReport=Hospital%20Summary%20Report

So when the first responders say that critical care beds are almost full, they're just making stuff up?

Ask them to specify which facilities they’re talking about.

Hogan said the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and the alert system backs him up.

https://twitter.com/mcfrsPIO/status/1261979977794441216

Blue alert happens anytime ANY hospital is overtaxed.

This.

If you click Maryland EMS:
https://www.miemssalert.com/chats/Default.aspx?hdRegion=5&hdReportRegion=V&hdReport=Hospital%20Summary%20Report

It shows only Holy Cross on red. Then click on the Counties tab, and because one hospital is in red, that puts MoCo on blue alert.

So MCFRS is correct that MoCo is on blue alert, but that's not as bad as it seems to be. Only one hospital is at capacity in the county.

Right. People need to actually consult the original data, to understand what’s going on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
OP, you are going to be confined for the rest of your life. There was an official announcement on the matter.

There, is that what you wanted to hear?

Well, when they put up mathematically unattainable metrics, like a 14-day decline on deaths, when we’re averaging 12 per day, then yeah — that would imply no end date because the criteria for reopening are not feasible.

I read you posting that before, and it didn't make sense to me then, and it still doesn't make sense to me. You seem to assume that the rolling average number of deaths must be a whole number. It doesn't need to be, and it wouldn't make sense to do it that way.

I don’t care about a whole number. Explain to me how you get a 14-day decline when you start with a number under 14.

Day 1: 13.5
Day 2: 13.4
Day 3: 13.3
Day 4: 13.2
Day 5: 13.1

I'll leave the rest as an exercise for the reader.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
OP, you are going to be confined for the rest of your life. There was an official announcement on the matter.

There, is that what you wanted to hear?

Well, when they put up mathematically unattainable metrics, like a 14-day decline on deaths, when we’re averaging 12 per day, then yeah — that would imply no end date because the criteria for reopening are not feasible.

I read you posting that before, and it didn't make sense to me then, and it still doesn't make sense to me. You seem to assume that the rolling average number of deaths must be a whole number. It doesn't need to be, and it wouldn't make sense to do it that way.

I don’t care about a whole number. Explain to me how you get a 14-day decline when you start with a number under 14.

Day 1: 13.5
Day 2: 13.4
Day 3: 13.3
Day 4: 13.2
Day 5: 13.1

I'll leave the rest as an exercise for the reader.

Right, so at the end of that, you’re down essentially 2 deaths per day. Is that a reason to keep a county closed?

My point is that 12 is SUCH a low starting point that you’re looking at stupidly small changes.