DC Housing Prices drop beginning

[Anonymous]

i've been trolling listing daily as I need want to buy a home in the capital hill area. couple factors I consider 1) are we in a economic downturn = yes 2) is consumer confidence down = yes 3) do we have large population unemployed = yes 4) will economy snap back to pre Mar 2020 quickly = likely not

so all data points necessary that a strong housing market favoring sellers have tilted towards buyers. I personal bet is to wait. I don't need a chart to tell me what i see with my own eyes. sure there will be buyers that needs to buy today and pent up demand, bottom line is there will be a drop come fall/winter 2020. how much no ones knows.. or if he/she did, wouldn't even bother posting in this forum

[Anonymous]

I think the $1.5m-$3m market is going to get hit hard.

A flipped house that would have sold for $2m in WOTP DC in 2019 now won't sell. The developers will need to get the price down to $1.5m-$1.7m range to generate interest.

The higher end market is going to have a rough time. Plus, getting a mortgage on one of those is going to be tough, especially if you are self-employee or an equity partner.

However, this is good news if you have $400-500K downpayment and want to spend $1.2-1.3m. The home that were previously $1.5m are now going to be reduced to your budget range. I feel like a sweet spot will open up for UMC buyers with 30-40% down payments and stable jobs.

[Anonymous]

use the redfin mobile app, there's a price prediction/trend graph it'll display. for most 1.2 mill + homes, the trend has been down since Jan 2020. there shouldn't be any argument on prices coming down. homes are selling b/c some homes are just priced to sell

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the $1.5m-$3m market is going to get hit hard.

A flipped house that would have sold for $2m in WOTP DC in 2019 now won't sell. The developers will need to get the price down to $1.5m-$1.7m range to generate interest.

The higher end market is going to have a rough time. Plus, getting a mortgage on one of those is going to be tough, especially if you are self-employee or an equity partner.

However, this is good news if you have $400-500K downpayment and want to spend $1.2-1.3m. The home that were previously $1.5m are now going to be reduced to your budget range. I feel like a sweet spot will open up for UMC buyers with 30-40% down payments and stable jobs.

Instead of 1.5m house come down to 1.2-1.3m, I only saw 1-1.1m house going up to 1.2-1.3, and being sold within days... can PP explain why?

[Anonymous]

^^ you have listing?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the $1.5m-$3m market is going to get hit hard.

A flipped house that would have sold for $2m in WOTP DC in 2019 now won't sell. The developers will need to get the price down to $1.5m-$1.7m range to generate interest.

The higher end market is going to have a rough time. Plus, getting a mortgage on one of those is going to be tough, especially if you are self-employee or an equity partner.

However, this is good news if you have $400-500K downpayment and want to spend $1.2-1.3m. The home that were previously $1.5m are now going to be reduced to your budget range. I feel like a sweet spot will open up for UMC buyers with 30-40% down payments and stable jobs.

Instead of 1.5m house come down to 1.2-1.3m, I only saw 1-1.1m house going up to 1.2-1.3, and being sold within days... can PP explain why?

People can still get forbearance on Fannie/Freddie loans (basically the entire 'conforming' market). Plus, sellers are leery of putting their home on the market in a pandemic. This is keeping the market inventory very tight in the $700K-$1.3m range inside the Beltway. There are easily 8 homes at $2m+ in my immediate DC neighborhood that have been languishing and/or were recently de-listed.

Once forbearance is done (end of 2020) and people are still out of jobs and no more unemployment bonus, the bills are really going to come due. I would not expect prices to start slipping until 4Q this year and really pick up significant drops next year. This is going to be an 18-24 month depression.

[Anonymous]

Housing is necessary whether or not you’re unemployed. I’d rather than be unemployed with a mortgage than unemployed paying rent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the $1.5m-$3m market is going to get hit hard.

A flipped house that would have sold for $2m in WOTP DC in 2019 now won't sell. The developers will need to get the price down to $1.5m-$1.7m range to generate interest.

The higher end market is going to have a rough time. Plus, getting a mortgage on one of those is going to be tough, especially if you are self-employee or an equity partner.

However, this is good news if you have $400-500K downpayment and want to spend $1.2-1.3m. The home that were previously $1.5m are now going to be reduced to your budget range. I feel like a sweet spot will open up for UMC buyers with 30-40% down payments and stable jobs.

Instead of 1.5m house come down to 1.2-1.3m, I only saw 1-1.1m house going up to 1.2-1.3, and being sold within days... can PP explain why?

People can still get forbearance on Fannie/Freddie loans (basically the entire 'conforming' market). Plus, sellers are leery of putting their home on the market in a pandemic. This is keeping the market inventory very tight in the $700K-$1.3m range inside the Beltway. There are easily 8 homes at $2m+ in my immediate DC neighborhood that have been languishing and/or were recently de-listed.

Once forbearance is done (end of 2020) and people are still out of jobs and no more unemployment bonus, the bills are really going to come due. I would not expect prices to start slipping until 4Q this year and really pick up significant drops next year. This is going to be an 18-24 month depression.

Get with the program, the recession was cancelled by the Fed. Good times are here again!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Housing is necessary whether or not you’re unemployed. I’d rather than be unemployed with a mortgage than unemployed paying rent.

^^
that's like how foreclosures and bankruptcies happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing is necessary whether or not you’re unemployed. I’d rather than be unemployed with a mortgage than unemployed paying rent.

^^
that's like how foreclosures and bankruptcies happen.

That’s also how evictions happen. Servicers are more likely to work with you to keep you in your home as it’s in their best interest and they’re under regulatory constraints. Landlords evict quickly, it’s in their best interest for you to pay rent at all costs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing is necessary whether or not you’re unemployed. I’d rather than be unemployed with a mortgage than unemployed paying rent.

^^
that's like how foreclosures and bankruptcies happen.

That’s also how evictions happen. Servicers are more likely to work with you to keep you in your home as it’s in their best interest and they’re under regulatory constraints. Landlords evict quickly, it’s in their best interest for you to pay rent at all costs.

Except in DC, where the legal system is set up to let tenants stay for months and months without paying rent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing is necessary whether or not you’re unemployed. I’d rather than be unemployed with a mortgage than unemployed paying rent.

^^
that's like how foreclosures and bankruptcies happen.

That’s also how evictions happen. Servicers are more likely to work with you to keep you in your home as it’s in their best interest and they’re under regulatory constraints. Landlords evict quickly, it’s in their best interest for you to pay rent at all costs.

you understand there is a much greater impact with getting foreclosed and declaring bankruptcy than getting evicted right? you don't just lose your house. the posture of services likely to work with you b/c it is painful for everyone is a zero sum game.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing is necessary whether or not you’re unemployed. I’d rather than be unemployed with a mortgage than unemployed paying rent.

^^
that's like how foreclosures and bankruptcies happen.

That’s also how evictions happen. Servicers are more likely to work with you to keep you in your home as it’s in their best interest and they’re under regulatory constraints. Landlords evict quickly, it’s in their best interest for you to pay rent at all costs.

you understand there is a much greater impact with getting foreclosed and declaring bankruptcy than getting evicted right? you don't just lose your house. the posture of services likely to work with you b/c it is painful for everyone is a zero sum game.

Mortgage owners are being given 6-12 months of deferred payments. They've actually been better taken care of during this crisis than renters. Every renter I know has had to keep making their rental payments on time. If they don't, and yes they're not being evicted, you can guarantee landlords will be filing eviction notices in court the day they open.

Not the case for mortgages. And even where states have opened up - like Georgia - mortgage forbearance is still allowed. Rental payments however are due the date the states reopen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing is necessary whether or not you’re unemployed. I’d rather than be unemployed with a mortgage than unemployed paying rent.

^^
that's like how foreclosures and bankruptcies happen.

Around here, rents aren't any cheaper than mortgages - in fact, in many cases it's less expensive to have a mortgage instead of rent, which will often rise every single year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing is necessary whether or not you’re unemployed. I’d rather than be unemployed with a mortgage than unemployed paying rent.

^^
that's like how foreclosures and bankruptcies happen.

That’s also how evictions happen. Servicers are more likely to work with you to keep you in your home as it’s in their best interest and they’re under regulatory constraints. Landlords evict quickly, it’s in their best interest for you to pay rent at all costs.

you understand there is a much greater impact with getting foreclosed and declaring bankruptcy than getting evicted right? you don't just lose your house. the posture of services likely to work with you b/c it is painful for everyone is a zero sum game.

You realize that once you’re evicted another landlord is highly unlikely to ever rent to you again. You also realize a foreclosure can occur without a bankruptcy.