DC Housing Prices drop beginning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Zillow Research:

A 2%-3% drop in prices through the end of 2020, followed by a slow recovery throughout 2021. Prices will return to Q4 2019 levels by Q3 2021.
A 50% decline in home sales from their pre-coronavirus levels, as measured at the end of 2019. Home sales will bottom out in Q2 before beginning to improve near the end of Q2 2020.
Sales volume will recover to about 97% of Q4 2019 levels by the end of 2021.
The pace of recovery is what distinguishes our three scenarios from one another.

https://www.zillow.com/research/prices-sales-forecast-coronavirus-26975/

I think I read a similar forecast in early 2008...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://tinyurl.com/y97q24np

26% list price drop

In fact, prices for apartments and other real estate are declining around the world. As you might have guessed, the cause is coronovirus infection. I always thought about buying a house by the sea in Spain and now there are awesome prices there, but I can’t even go there because of an emergency. I thought for a long time and decided to choose another country and buy some real estate during this period because the prices are very favorable . My friend works as a realtor and he said that the biggest decline in apartment prices happened in Bulgaria. Have you ever heard about the city of Varna? Varna is a port city and seaside resort on the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria. It is located near other resorts: Golden Sands, Saints Constantine and Elena. There used to be very expensive apartments and offices, but now I found the Bulgarian property for sale Varna Suprimmo.net at very competitive prices! I found one awesome apartment for 85,000 euros and it’s not so expensive because it looks like some kind of VIP room in a hotel. I advise you to look at the photos!

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In the future the flights are going to be too pricy for you to enjoy a cheap seaside vacation in Eastern Europe. So price will keep low...

The Bulgarian apartments are sold mostly to Europeans, either as investments or part time residences. Not to Americans. Europeans can still get to Bulgaria by train. But I'm sure there's a short term impact and we will see what happens in the long run with flights. The age of cheap air travel may be over, then again it may be an aberration and we return to the normal in a year or two.

The European Project is doomed. First the refugee crisis, now the COVID. The free flow of people is coming to an end soon. Imagine you have to apply for a visa and go through border each time to enjoy a seaside vacation home? You'd rather rent than buy, b/c of all the inconvenience. Europeans were sooo spoiled in the past 20 years by the European dream. Now they have to adjust. So no thank you.

The point of the EU is that you don't need a visa to pass between countries and Europe is so small that most people drive or use the amazing network of trains that they had.

I can see vacationers or holidaymakers with second homes no longer flying across the Atlantic to get there but to say that the union itself will fail is a ridiculous overstatement.

In fact, they need their alliance more than ever to fight against COVID-19 which is why Britain is begging for re-admittance to EWRS (the European version of the CDC virus watch) and because of Brexit they're left out in the cold.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/02/uk-seeks-access-to-eu-health-cooperation-in-light-of-coronavirus

Professional collaboration yes, but regain sovereignty especially border control, yes. Otherwise, what the point of Brexit? Also, the Eastern Europeans are the first to take back control of their border during the refugee crisis. Anyway, short vacation home in Bulgaria.

You don't get one without the other. The EU needs to tell Britain to shove it. They've actually offered them 'non-member' status in some systems like EWRS but doesn't cover nearly the breathe of options that being a member of the EU did and the British are furious.

Well, you fought for 'freedom' for 2 years. Now there's your freedom. Good luck with having the worst fatality rate in Europe and handling it all on your own with a second wave coming.

[Anonymous]

I'm not laughing but Britain reallllyy shot themselves in the foot with this. Their supply chain is already disrupted thanks to COVID-19, now they've basically put a ticking time bomb on the train and its going to be a massive failure. They were lucky to see no grocery store riots because of empty aisles in March. If this happens in the middle of winter?

The coronavirus has hampered efforts to train staff to handle the extra paperwork firms will need to complete after the U.K. exits the EU’s customs union at the year-end, according to industry bodies involved with the process. One lobby group says its offer to help plug the shortage of recruits has met with silence from Whitehall.

Without enough agents, goods traveling to and from the EU, the U.K.’s single biggest trading partner, risk being delayed at ports, disrupting supply chains and heaping more pain on companies reeling from coronavirus. Even if the two sides strike a trade deal by December, agents will still be needed to process an additional 200 million customs declarations, according to estimates by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/shortage-of-customs-staff-risks-brexit-shock-trade-deal-or-not

[Anonymous]

Look, partisan haters, Britain hasn't actually left the EU yet. They're still paying into it.

BoJo has made clear they're still leaving. And if the EU wants to fight Britain over being a temporary member of a COVID-19 monitoring entity during a major global pandemic, the EU will get its comeuppance in due time. A perfect example is sharing of intelligence. Britain's intelligence is far superior to anything in the EU.

I don't have a leg here as I'm neither British nor European but even I know when people are being partisan and silly. Which is what allows me to also know that Italy is furious at the EU for the lack of support during the early days of the pandemic. The EU isn't perfect.

And this has nothing do with the DC housing market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look, partisan haters, Britain hasn't actually left the EU yet. They're still paying into it.

BoJo has made clear they're still leaving. And if the EU wants to fight Britain over being a temporary member of a COVID-19 monitoring entity during a major global pandemic, the EU will get its comeuppance in due time. A perfect example is sharing of intelligence. Britain's intelligence is far superior to anything in the EU.

I don't have a leg here as I'm neither British nor European but even I know when people are being partisan and silly. Which is what allows me to also know that Italy is furious at the EU for the lack of support during the early days of the pandemic. The EU isn't perfect.

And this has nothing do with the DC housing market.

this

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A house in my hot PG county neighborhood went under contract in one weekend.

What neighborhood?

[Anonymous]

We were freaked out in March and decided not to list our centrally located condo. Been watching things closely and have decided to list after all. Interest rates are low and many people know they will have steady income by now. Bring it!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Zillow Research:

A 2%-3% drop in prices through the end of 2020, followed by a slow recovery throughout 2021. Prices will return to Q4 2019 levels by Q3 2021.
A 50% decline in home sales from their pre-coronavirus levels, as measured at the end of 2019. Home sales will bottom out in Q2 before beginning to improve near the end of Q2 2020.
Sales volume will recover to about 97% of Q4 2019 levels by the end of 2021.
The pace of recovery is what distinguishes our three scenarios from one another.

https://www.zillow.com/research/prices-sales-forecast-coronavirus-26975/

I think I read a similar forecast in early 2008...

You think you did or you did? I was calling for a 40% decline in 2005 and at the current time no more than 5%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Zillow Research:

A 2%-3% drop in prices through the end of 2020, followed by a slow recovery throughout 2021. Prices will return to Q4 2019 levels by Q3 2021.
A 50% decline in home sales from their pre-coronavirus levels, as measured at the end of 2019. Home sales will bottom out in Q2 before beginning to improve near the end of Q2 2020.
Sales volume will recover to about 97% of Q4 2019 levels by the end of 2021.
The pace of recovery is what distinguishes our three scenarios from one another.

https://www.zillow.com/research/prices-sales-forecast-coronavirus-26975/

I think I read a similar forecast in early 2008...

You think you did or you did? I was calling for a 40% decline in 2005 and at the current time no more than 5%.

Why?

[Anonymous]

It is hard for me to understand how real estate prices cannot be impacted by the economic shutdown, GDP decline and high levels of unemployment. But in my neighborhood- at least for now - houses are getting multiple bids and going under contract quickly. Stock market is doing well too. Of course this can all change but I am not seeing evidence of a decline yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is hard for me to understand how real estate prices cannot be impacted by the economic shutdown, GDP decline and high levels of unemployment. But in my neighborhood- at least for now - houses are getting multiple bids and going under contract quickly. Stock market is doing well too. Of course this can all change but I am not seeing evidence of a decline yet.

Interest rates are so low, it’s a great time to buy if you don’t think you’ll lose your job.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Zillow Research:

A 2%-3% drop in prices through the end of 2020, followed by a slow recovery throughout 2021. Prices will return to Q4 2019 levels by Q3 2021.
A 50% decline in home sales from their pre-coronavirus levels, as measured at the end of 2019. Home sales will bottom out in Q2 before beginning to improve near the end of Q2 2020.
Sales volume will recover to about 97% of Q4 2019 levels by the end of 2021.
The pace of recovery is what distinguishes our three scenarios from one another.

https://www.zillow.com/research/prices-sales-forecast-coronavirus-26975/

I think I read a similar forecast in early 2008...

You think you did or you did? I was calling for a 40% decline in 2005 and at the current time no more than 5%.

Why?

Basic relationships like monthly mortgage payments relative to income, the underlying causes of the crisis, etc.

There are a lot of complainers on this board, but I don't think people realize that in the DC area homeowners spend less on mortgage monthly payments as a percentage of their income these days than they did the 1980s and 1990s on average.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Zillow Research:

A 2%-3% drop in prices through the end of 2020, followed by a slow recovery throughout 2021. Prices will return to Q4 2019 levels by Q3 2021.
A 50% decline in home sales from their pre-coronavirus levels, as measured at the end of 2019. Home sales will bottom out in Q2 before beginning to improve near the end of Q2 2020.
Sales volume will recover to about 97% of Q4 2019 levels by the end of 2021.
The pace of recovery is what distinguishes our three scenarios from one another.

https://www.zillow.com/research/prices-sales-forecast-coronavirus-26975/

I think I read a similar forecast in early 2008...

You think you did or you did? I was calling for a 40% decline in 2005 and at the current time no more than 5%.

Why?

Basic relationships like monthly mortgage payments relative to income, the underlying causes of the crisis, etc.

There are a lot of complainers on this board, but I don't think people realize that in the DC area homeowners spend less on mortgage monthly payments as a percentage of their income these days than they did the 1980s and 1990s on average.

Kinda. Today DC-metro residents spend an average of 18% on shelter. In 1990, we spent 18% on shelter. In 2006, it was also 18%. Pretty damn stable.

https://www.bls.gov/cex/2018/msas/south.pdf
https://www.bls.gov/cex/2006/MSAs/south.PDF
https://www.bls.gov/cex/1990/MSAs/south.PDF

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A house in my hot PG county neighborhood went under contract in one weekend.

There’s a hot market in PG county? That’s a new one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is hard for me to understand how real estate prices cannot be impacted by the economic shutdown, GDP decline and high levels of unemployment. But in my neighborhood- at least for now - houses are getting multiple bids and going under contract quickly. Stock market is doing well too. Of course this can all change but I am not seeing evidence of a decline yet.

It's not that hard to understand. Basically nobody who can afford a house in DC has a job that is going to be severely affected.

Waiters, bartenders, busboys, barbers, janitors, etc. rent rooms or small apartments. If they lose their jobs and get evicted it has no effect whatsoever on the price of a million dollar house. Even if a few people with million dollar houses do get laid off, a significant number of them have spouses who work or savings and can ride it out. Most professionals are still working or will be back to work in a few weeks/months and the market knows this.