By the numbers: A dispassioned evaluation of Hardy (compared to Deal and Wilson)

[Anonymous]

We are IB for Hardy, and never tried the lottery. We went straight to Hardy. DC is at home at Hardy, walks to school back and forth, is friend with schoolmates from the neighborhood. The education is having is great and of the same level (if not better given the small class size) than many of the independent schools nearby, not to mention Basis and Latin. His math is more advanced than his peers at Deal and the British School (schools where we were able to do a comparison by looking at homework of other 6th graders).

Hardy is our school, we never thought of sending him for daily commutes miles away from home. He uses the saved time for homework, playing music and a sport team.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just one edit to my very last paragraph. I should have said, people with money, who are at least somewhat risk averse. Risk aversion is commonly assumed, and I think it's a valid assumption here. Why take a risk or accept compromise when private school or Bethesda are reasonably within reach, albeit not without some cost?

OP here. I know I need to reply. It will take me a while. Later afternoon or tonight at the earliest. I'm not ducking you.

No problem, no rush. I just forgot to add the risk aversion before and wanted to include that thought. I think I see a lot of risk aversion when I read the other, epic Hardy threads.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People seem to be talking about the alternative to Hardy only in terms of private school. Latin and Basis (and perhaps other charters) are important variables too. I'd love to see the percentage of how many families IB for Hardy entered the lottery for their rising 5th graders. I'm going to guess it's in the 80-90% range. There is no financial cost to play the lottery and if you accept a spot that you win there is no financial cost in terms of tuition, so why not see how your child does and potentially expand your options? And inevitably a number of those families who are IB for Hardy will take the Latin or Basis option when offered, thus decreasing the 5th grade numbers at the Hardy feeder elementary (keep in mind those IB families can decide at any time that they want to go to Hardy. By enrolling at Basis, they don't relinquish their right to Hardy or the elementary feeder). And once that Hardy feeder school realizes they have lost x number of 5th graders, it may go to the waitlist to add children to 5th grade (in order to make enrollment and budget targets). And those children from the waitlist come to the school with unknown education histories. Some of those kids who join a Hardy feeder at 5th grade will be prepared and test well. Some may not. But this is for sure...they will be going to Hardy, because getting access to Hardy was likely a big reason why that family was willing to jump to a new elementary school for just one grade. So, know this...IB families at feeder elementaries will be looking at the 5th grade classes and trying to determine if those are kids they want their kids to be with in 6th grade. So it's not just about getting 5th grade families to make a pact to go to Hardy, it's about stopping the exodus after 4th grade.

And if you're IB for Hardy, you're automatically IB for Wilson, so you can leave the DCPS system for 3-4 years to attend a charter middle and then come back by right (if they don't want to do high school at the charter). That is not an option for a family like mine...we attend a Hardy feeder school OOB and if we want our children to have Wilson as an option, we have to commit to Hardy because if we leave for Latin or Basis, we take ourselves out of the feeder path. So are committed to going to Hardy because we are encouraged by what is going on there (thanks for affirming this plan, OP, with the data analysis) and because we want Wilson to be an option for us.

Some good points here, especially the one about entrants in 5th grade due to departures for charters and privates. This is important because many posters in these Hardy threads, and even the Hardy principal, like to use the feeder school percentage. The rationale usually given is that OOB in feeders are as well prepared as IB kids. But this assumes that OOB kids have been at the feeder for all ES, which as you explain may not always be the case.

Also good to keep in mind your point that OOB families who enter a feeder with plans for Wilson, are committed to Hardy, whereas IB families can opt out for MS and return for HS.

Related question re: OOB families, if there was no Rhee feeder right to Wilson, would Hardy still be as popular for OOB families? Not trying to stir the pot on the feeder issue, just wondering if in fact there are OOB families that are not keen on Hardy but see it as the only entry to Wilson, now that Deal and Wilson do not take OOB except via feeders.

[Anonymous]

About entrants in IB 5th grade due to departures for charters and privates ... I do not know about Key and Hyde, but I know for sure that Mann and Stoddert do not open up spots for OBs in 5th grade, the just cut one class.

Parents would not accept an inflow of OB kids in 5th grade, IB schools display a pyramidal structure.

[Anonymous]

OP here.

It is not correct to say that Hardy feeders take in new OOB students in 5th grade to replace those who depart. 5th grade class sizes are simply smaller.

For example,
Mann goes from 46 in 2nd, to 41 in 3rd to 43 in 4th to 18 students in 5th grade.
Key goes from 60 to 61 to 56 to 37.
Stoddert goes from 79 to 62 to 60 to 22.
Hyde goes from 53 to 58 to 54 to 32.

All of these data are from the initial link provided in the first post.

Concerns over hypothetical "new OOB kids" who are unprepared is a false trope. New students are not being added in upper grades at Hardy feeders.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People seem to be talking about the alternative to Hardy only in terms of private school. Latin and Basis (and perhaps other charters) are important variables too. I'd love to see the percentage of how many families IB for Hardy entered the lottery for their rising 5th graders. I'm going to guess it's in the 80-90% range. There is no financial cost to play the lottery and if you accept a spot that you win there is no financial cost in terms of tuition, so why not see how your child does and potentially expand your options? And inevitably a number of those families who are IB for Hardy will take the Latin or Basis option when offered, thus decreasing the 5th grade numbers at the Hardy feeder elementary (keep in mind those IB families can decide at any time that they want to go to Hardy. By enrolling at Basis, they don't relinquish their right to Hardy or the elementary feeder). And once that Hardy feeder school realizes they have lost x number of 5th graders, it may go to the waitlist to add children to 5th grade (in order to make enrollment and budget targets). And those children from the waitlist come to the school with unknown education histories. Some of those kids who join a Hardy feeder at 5th grade will be prepared and test well. Some may not. But this is for sure...they will be going to Hardy, because getting access to Hardy was likely a big reason why that family was willing to jump to a new elementary school for just one grade. So, know this...IB families at feeder elementaries will be looking at the 5th grade classes and trying to determine if those are kids they want their kids to be with in 6th grade. So it's not just about getting 5th grade families to make a pact to go to Hardy, it's about stopping the exodus after 4th grade.

And if you're IB for Hardy, you're automatically IB for Wilson, so you can leave the DCPS system for 3-4 years to attend a charter middle and then come back by right (if they don't want to do high school at the charter). That is not an option for a family like mine...we attend a Hardy feeder school OOB and if we want our children to have Wilson as an option, we have to commit to Hardy because if we leave for Latin or Basis, we take ourselves out of the feeder path. So are committed to going to Hardy because we are encouraged by what is going on there (thanks for affirming this plan, OP, with the data analysis) and because we want Wilson to be an option for us.

Some good points here, especially the one about entrants in 5th grade due to departures for charters and privates. This is important because many posters in these Hardy threads, and even the Hardy principal, like to use the feeder school percentage. The rationale usually given is that OOB in feeders are as well prepared as IB kids. But this assumes that OOB kids have been at the feeder for all ES, which as you explain may not always be the case.

Also good to keep in mind your point that OOB families who enter a feeder with plans for Wilson, are committed to Hardy, whereas IB families can opt out for MS and return for HS.

Related question re: OOB families, if there was no Rhee feeder right to Wilson, would Hardy still be as popular for OOB families? Not trying to stir the pot on the feeder issue, just wondering if in fact there are OOB families that are not keen on Hardy but see it as the only entry to Wilson, now that Deal and Wilson do not take OOB except via feeders.

I'm PP and in response to your related question...I'm quite sure that we would still apply to Hardy because our IB option is so lackluster (no stand alone middle school, but rather struggling education campuses). However, we might be more willing to try out Latin or Basis or Cap City or [insert name of rising charter] if we knew that going to Hardy wouldn't get us to Wilson. So, the conspiracy theorists who think DCPS is trying to kill itself off so that charters can rule might expect to see OOB feeder path rights revoked. However, I don't believe that's the case...I just think that much of the time DCPS doesn't really know what's it's doing, but instead just keeps checking to see if the spaghetti is done by throwing it at a wall. So, I'm not sure what the answer is to your question for OOB families broadly, but for our family we'd still look to Hardy as a very viable option. But frankly, because OOB feeder rights won't be revoked (if the DME process taught us nothing, we at least now know how little political will exists to touch that) I don't have to contemplate it too much.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here.

It is not correct to say that Hardy feeders take in new OOB students in 5th grade to replace those who depart. 5th grade class sizes are simply smaller.

For example,
Mann goes from 46 in 2nd, to 41 in 3rd to 43 in 4th to 18 students in 5th grade.
Key goes from 60 to 61 to 56 to 37.
Stoddert goes from 79 to 62 to 60 to 22.
Hyde goes from 53 to 58 to 54 to 32.

All of these data are from the initial link provided in the first post.

Concerns over hypothetical "new OOB kids" who are unprepared is a false trope. New students are not being added in upper grades at Hardy feeders.

Stoddert will have two fifth grade classes for SY 2015-16.

[Anonymous]

OP here again.

Related to this point, Mann and Stoddert are adding second 5th grade classes next year. Hyde is adding a third 5th grade class. Key has two 5th grade classes as well.

Compared to the numbers from my previous post, the pool of Hardy students from feeders is expected to expand significantly (based upon these class allocations) next year. That means the best prediction of when Hardy will "flip" is likely after next year.

These data are from http://dcps.dc.gov/DCPS/About+DCPS/Budget+and+Finance/FY16+Fiscal+Report+Card/Initial+School+Budget+Allocations.

If someone has last year's allocations, please compare.

[Anonymous]

All Hardy feeder schools have great principals and involved parents.

It is naive (and shows a poor knowledge of dynamics at these schools) to think that ES feeder school will allow new OB entrants in 5th grade to keep enrollment high. OB slots are given in lower grades, not at higher grades.

This is what it is safe and considerate to state that kids from feeder schools are academically stronger, as most of them have spent at least 4 years in one of the feeder ES.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here.

It is not correct to say that Hardy feeders take in new OOB students in 5th grade to replace those who depart. 5th grade class sizes are simply smaller.

For example,
Mann goes from 46 in 2nd, to 41 in 3rd to 43 in 4th to 18 students in 5th grade.
Key goes from 60 to 61 to 56 to 37.
Stoddert goes from 79 to 62 to 60 to 22.
Hyde goes from 53 to 58 to 54 to 32.

All of these data are from the initial link provided in the first post.

Concerns over hypothetical "new OOB kids" who are unprepared is a false trope. New students are not being added in upper grades at Hardy feeders.

Careful, OP. With your quick access to the data you're going to out yourself pretty quickly. I know who the Hardy feeder school group fed all the 4th and 5th grade numbers to...and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All Hardy feeder schools have great principals and involved parents.

It is naive (and shows a poor knowledge of dynamics at these schools) to think that ES feeder school will allow new OB entrants in 5th grade to keep enrollment high. OB slots are given in lower grades, not at higher grades.

This is what it is safe and considerate to state that kids from feeder schools are academically stronger, as most of them have spent at least 4 years in one of the feeder ES.

School budgets are based on the # of pupils in the school. None of the schools will leave $ on the table if they have space for a few more 5th graders.

[Anonymous]

From OP " ... non-whites perform better at Deal because non-whites at Deal feeders (like Shephard) are all described well by the bulleted points above...." .

If you cross your numbers with the composition (OB vs IB by race) you will see that non-whites are predominanly OBs (with the exception of Shephard) and they perform better at Deal because they all come from feeder schools, which are all strong or very strong ES.

[Anonymous]

how do the schools compare based on % of students who score advanced rather than proficient?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here again.

Related to this point, Mann and Stoddert are adding second 5th grade classes next year. Hyde is adding a third 5th grade class. Key has two 5th grade classes as well.

Compared to the numbers from my previous post, the pool of Hardy students from feeders is expected to expand significantly (based upon these class allocations) next year. That means the best prediction of when Hardy will "flip" is likely after next year.

These data are from http://dcps.dc.gov/DCPS/About+DCPS/Budget+and+Finance/FY16+Fiscal+Report+Card/Initial+School+Budget+Allocations.

If someone has last year's allocations, please compare.

agreed...so long at significant numbers of rising 5th graders don't win and then leave for spots at Basis and Latin and so long at the 5th grade option at the feeder elementaries is a good one. For the schools that have just one 5th grade class, that is actually a potential hurdle because if you don't perceive that teacher as strong or if you think your child's class will be too large (25+) you may be more apt to leave for 5th grade. Having a second option/second class is key unless that one 5th grade teacher is a rock star.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All Hardy feeder schools have great principals and involved parents.

It is naive (and shows a poor knowledge of dynamics at these schools) to think that ES feeder school will allow new OB entrants in 5th grade to keep enrollment high. OB slots are given in lower grades, not at higher grades.

This is what it is safe and considerate to state that kids from feeder schools are academically stronger, as most of them have spent at least 4 years in one of the feeder ES.

School budgets are based on the # of pupils in the school. None of the schools will leave $ on the table if they have space for a few more 5th graders.

You certainly are not from one of the ES feeder school.

Untrue. They increase number of classes at lower grades. As much as Principals might have wanted to do so, parents would not allow it, and would most certainly leave in larger numbers at the end of 4th grade, making the problem worse.