Did everyone land?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Different PP. Odds were better mathematically, I guess, but the premise now is to get people into schools they like BETTER so they will not have to keep lotterying year after year.

It's really not that great to have separate lotteries if you're going to get offered places at Payne Elementary, Burroughs and Miner when you wanted Mundo Verde or John Eaton. Better to get the winners where they really want to be than to keep churning people endlessly through schools they don't like. Bonus is that the lottery might actually concentrate high SES neighbors at their IB schools where they might be inclined to get involved.

You do get it, the statistics part. And I agree, the reason I support the common lottery is that at least more people are getting into schools they prioritized since they had to choose 12 and couldn't apply to just 8 or 12 DCPS plus all the charters separately. In the old system you definitely had people applying everywhere, sometimes without doing any research on what schools offered, so they ended up at Mundo Verde even though they ended up annoyed by the focus on green/conservation issues. Whereas if you have to research and choose, maybe that family would have stayed out of the MV lottery and another family who loved the green focus would have gotten that spot.

I understand why one common lottery is better overall for fidelity, and not letting people sit on multiple spots. But as someone who totally benefitted from the separate lotteries, I understand why parents would crave the option of at least having 12+ separate chances to get a good number than having to suffer being shut out once, sometimes twice (in 2 rounds) from ALL the schools you apply to because of one (or two) bad random numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay, you win, statistics moron. Let's go back to a system in which everyone has an equal chance to land a desirable spot, but the spots they land are not desirable to them. Great plan.

Childish namecalling aside, another issue you clearly don't understand is the difference between working to improve the overall number of quality spots available (which is essential obviously in DC), and just pointing out basic facts about the pluses and minuses about different application/lottery systems. Those are two totally different issues, even though the overwhelming demand compared to the small supply is a root cause for both.

You're too petty to pay attention to the fact that it's possible to both be in favor of the common lottery (which I am), AND to recognize that there is a drawback, namely that actually individual odds of getting in to one of the better schools are reduced if there's one draw. Good luck with just spinning around on namecalling and oversimplication. Hopefully others are actually able to recognize the pluses and minuses and keep working to improve BOTH the number of quality school spots available (by improving the schools we already have and opening new schools where necessary, both complex but crucial endeavors) as well as by improving the application system each year.

THANK YOU! Of course those of us who are smart would never call PP a "moron" no matter what the evidence might suggest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Janney wasn't.

Nor was Lafayette.

Nor Stoddert. We had a really low waitlist number and did not get off. I suspect shenanigans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is no disadvantage, you are just a poor loser.

Analyzing the simple scenario (12 schools, equally desirable to each person) that you gave above, if there are 200 spots and 800 students, each student has an equal chance to get one of those spots regardless of whether it is one lottery or more, as if they get more than one they have to toss it back in the pot.

But there are three major advantages that you see, two that have been discussed recently, and one that you just pointed out:
1. People actually get to choose which school they prefer and you no longer have the scenario in which someone who wanted Yu Ying got into EL Haynes and vice versa and can’t switch.
2. There is no waiting for the major shakeout, most people know fairly early what the plan will be and have time to act accordingly, instead of waiting until October to have any clue how it will end up.
3. People research their options and don’t just choose the most popular option, thus convincing more people to apply for lesser known (generally neighborhood) schools and invest in them when they get in. This increases the number of acceptable choices and conceivably can improve the schools long-term.


The one actual disadvantage is that the parents need to do a lot of upfront research when they might not end up having the option, thus they get invested and some end up having wasted a lot of time, which could turn them into poor losers who no longer understand statistics.

This isn't how it played out as far as what I've observed. Under the old system people applied EVERYWHERE and figured they'd work out where to go when they saw how the cards lay. that meant that they considered places that they wouldn't even have thought of previously. with the common lottery people have been disappointed because they've been more picky in their choices because they know they only get in to one school, effectively putting themselves out of the running for others.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The same number of students get into the desirable spots either way in this scenario. Thus, every student still has the same chance to get one of the 12 spots. The only difference is that with one lottery you know earlier whether you got into your chosen school, a different school, or got shut out.

You still don't understand the difference between one single student's odds of getting into 12 schools in 12 different lotteries vs. 12 schools in 1 lottery. No one is arguing the fact that at the end of the day, there are only X number of spots with Y numbers of people looking and only X students will end up in those spots. Yes, we all understand that part.

Each lottery is for only a fraction of the total pot. Thus the chances in each individual lottery are less than the chances of getting into any of the schools in the larger lottery.

Ex. 2 schools, 1 space in each. 10 students applying. If there are two lotteries, the student has a 1 in 10 chance of getting into school A and a 1 in 10 chance of getting into school B. Thus, the student has a 2 in 10 (1 in 5) chance of getting into either school. If there is one lottery, the student has a 2 in 10 (or 1 in 5) chance of getting into one of the schools. See how it is the same. Do you need another example?

[Anonymous]

It's stupid to compare year to year anyway. The landscape is totally different every single year, with new schools opening, old schools adding slots, schools moving locations, not to mention that the pools and options are vastly different for PK3ers versus first graders. The common lottery is a step in the right direction, so let's stop longing for the halcyon days of multiple lotteries. Most people who got "lucky" three years ago got lucky because there were a lot fewer people in the lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's stupid to compare year to year anyway. The landscape is totally different every single year, with new schools opening, old schools adding slots, schools moving locations, not to mention that the pools and options are vastly different for PK3ers versus first graders. The common lottery is a step in the right direction, so let's stop longing for the halcyon days of multiple lotteries. Most people who got "lucky" three years ago got lucky because there were a lot fewer people in the lottery.

This!

[Anonymous]

Huh. Interesting. I played the common lottery and it worked for me, but I didn't know I got one number that predicted my results in all 12 schools. I thought that I was limited to 12 schools (so I couldn't employ the "scattershot" methodology that parents used to use) but that each lottery number was individually assigned to each school, with the only difference being that if I got into choice #3, I was eliminated from schools 4-12. From what you are all saying, it seems like if I got a crappy lottery number from choice #1, that somehow affected my lottery numbers for the other schools too - is that right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The same number of students get into the desirable spots either way in this scenario. Thus, every student still has the same chance to get one of the 12 spots. The only difference is that with one lottery you know earlier whether you got into your chosen school, a different school, or got shut out.

You still don't understand the difference between one single student's odds of getting into 12 schools in 12 different lotteries vs. 12 schools in 1 lottery. No one is arguing the fact that at the end of the day, there are only X number of spots with Y numbers of people looking and only X students will end up in those spots. Yes, we all understand that part.

Each lottery is for only a fraction of the total pot. Thus the chances in each individual lottery are less than the chances of getting into any of the schools in the larger lottery.

Ex. 2 schools, 1 space in each. 10 students applying. If there are two lotteries, the student has a 1 in 10 chance of getting into school A and a 1 in 10 chance of getting into school B. Thus, the student has a 2 in 10 (1 in 5) chance of getting into either school. If there is one lottery, the student has a 2 in 10 (or 1 in 5) chance of getting into one of the schools. See how it is the same. Do you need another example?

Yep, for coveted charters, you have 4% (if it has been around a couple of years due to sibling preference) to 10% or 15% chance (if it is new or expanding charter; lee was 10% right after lottery maybe 15% once they moved through their waitlist) of getting a slot. Those are your odds, based on waitlist numbers, in the common lottery and those are you odds in the scattershot lottery. Odds are odds. I was shut out of scattershot lottery for PK3 last year. I know other parents who were shut out three years running (one bought a tiny condo IB for eaton and quit playing the lottery). It might FEEL like you have more chances in the scattershot lottery, but that is just a feeling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:IB for PK4 at Janney and didn't get in.

we know an IB for Janney PK4 who also didn't get in, but has an Oct. 3 or 4 birthday and they let her enter Kindergarten instead. Maybe try that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm always interested in all of the spin in March and April over the lottery waitlists, as it has been my personal experience over the last eight years that most folks land somewhere within the public school system. Maybe not their first choice, but somewhere acceptable. I know several families who have moved year to year from amongst multiple highly regarded charters and neighborhood schools. Does all of the spring angst really play out in the reality of school starting in September? Were people really completely shut out?

We were completely shut out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm always interested in all of the spin in March and April over the lottery waitlists, as it has been my personal experience over the last eight years that most folks land somewhere within the public school system. Maybe not their first choice, but somewhere acceptable. I know several families who have moved year to year from amongst multiple highly regarded charters and neighborhood schools. Does all of the spring angst really play out in the reality of school starting in September? Were people really completely shut out?

We were completely shut out.

Next year put down your IB school. Problem solved.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm always interested in all of the spin in March and April over the lottery waitlists, as it has been my personal experience over the last eight years that most folks land somewhere within the public school system. Maybe not their first choice, but somewhere acceptable. I know several families who have moved year to year from amongst multiple highly regarded charters and neighborhood schools. Does all of the spring angst really play out in the reality of school starting in September? Were people really completely shut out?

We were completely shut out.

Next year put down your IB school. Problem solved.

I did put down my IB school. I was in the lottery for PK3. I had the worst lottery number. I was in the 20s at IB, and in the hundreds at more desirable schools. Still waiting to hear from any school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We got nothing in the first round or the second round, so we're sticking with daycare for another year. Can't help but think that the previous system would have been better for us.

shinning stars has openings. families there love what happens the classroom. I'd try it instead of daycare.

Sela probably also has openings. I'd take either of those over my IB school.

Sela only takes kids from Prek4 and up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm always interested in all of the spin in March and April over the lottery waitlists, as it has been my personal experience over the last eight years that most folks land somewhere within the public school system. Maybe not their first choice, but somewhere acceptable. I know several families who have moved year to year from amongst multiple highly regarded charters and neighborhood schools. Does all of the spring angst really play out in the reality of school starting in September? Were people really completely shut out?

We were completely shut out.

Next year put down your IB school. Problem solved.

I did put down my IB school. I was in the lottery for PK3. I had the worst lottery number. I was in the 20s at IB, and in the hundreds at more desirable schools. Still waiting to hear from any school.

Eyeroll right back at you. You obviously live in a catchment for a great school, so you'll get in by K at the latest. It's hard to feel sympathy for your "shutout."