This must be some sort of housing bubble again

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm with 8:20. I was looking in 2011 in an area where houses in my range were selling in a week or less. (North Arlington.) I had pretty much resigned myself to buying in South Arlington (for the same money) when a house that had been on the market for almost 2 months finally dropped its price again and was only $25K above my "max." I saw it and made an offer that day at just below list price, $10K above my "max." They hadn't done much to stage it, hadn't painted, and the baths were very old. It needed a bit of work, plus the neighbors next door had a bunch of crappy cars parked outside. I got the house for the price I bid, and it appraised $50K higher than I paid, and then $150K higher when I refinanced. (and the neighbors have moved out.) We love our house and neighborhood, and all it took was some imagination and moving quickly.

south arlington...

[Anonymous]

OP I'm with you on the housing bubble.

This area has terrible housing stock. The ones in the good school districts get top dollar, but are often shitty, falling down or have crazy renovations (we refer to these as the Frankenstein houses). It's totally and unbelievably depressing. For any amount of money, the houses aren't good. 800k should buy you a well made, renovated home, but here it buys you Pimmit Hills or a tear down. Very sobering. What would cost 250k in other areas can be 1.4 million here.

Also what were builders thinking in the 50s-70s here?!! Worst home architecture.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP I'm with you on the housing bubble.

This area has terrible housing stock. The ones in the good school districts get top dollar, but are often shitty, falling down or have crazy renovations (we refer to these as the Frankenstein houses). It's totally and unbelievably depressing. For any amount of money, the houses aren't good. 800k should buy you a well made, renovated home, but here it buys you Pimmit Hills or a tear down. Very sobering. What would cost 250k in other areas can be 1.4 million here.

Also what were builders thinking in the 50s-70s here?!! Worst home architecture.

What's wrong with pimmit hills? I think it is the best investment with greatest potential for being a top tiered neighborhood.

I live in McLean and wouldn't hesitate to buy in Pimmit Hills but would have 10 years a go.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:That house a realtor just posted in Fall Church City needs a lot more work than new carpet, awning removal and a new door. That house is a tear down!

Why do you say that? I doubt that you know about its structural integrity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Waiting is a recipe for disaster. Houses are appreciating at a 10 percent clip. On a $600k house, thats $60k per year. I doubt the OP will be able to get ahead of that snowball unless they purchase yesterday.

OP the truth is that there is a ton of money in this area pushing up prices, particularly for 'family housing'. In order to compete in this market you must become comfortable with the idea of being house poor to 'win' a decent house, because otherwise you will continue to be outbid by those who are willing to do that.

How long can double digit appreciation continue? Not forever, but certainly longer than you afford to wait on the sidelines.

Your first assumption is that the 10% appreciation is a fully rational behavior.

If OP's looking at Burke/Robinson HS; he/she can easily look at Fairfax/Fairfax HS. I won't get into another Burke vs. Fairfax City argument here, but if you're already heading out to Burke, what's wrong with Fairfax?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Waiting is a recipe for disaster. Houses are appreciating at a 10 percent clip. On a $600k house, thats $60k per year. I doubt the OP will be able to get ahead of that snowball unless they purchase yesterday.

OP the truth is that there is a ton of money in this area pushing up prices, particularly for 'family housing'. In order to compete in this market you must become comfortable with the idea of being house poor to 'win' a decent house, because otherwise you will continue to be outbid by those who are willing to do that.

How long can double digit appreciation continue? Not forever, but certainly longer than you afford to wait on the sidelines.

This is exactly the kind of mentality that leads to bubbles.

No economist anywhere would say that a 60k increase a year in housing value is healthy. At that point, for the taxes alone, it becomes a better option to rent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Waiting is a recipe for disaster. Houses are appreciating at a 10 percent clip. On a $600k house, thats $60k per year. I doubt the OP will be able to get ahead of that snowball unless they purchase yesterday.

OP the truth is that there is a ton of money in this area pushing up prices, particularly for 'family housing'. In order to compete in this market you must become comfortable with the idea of being house poor to 'win' a decent house, because otherwise you will continue to be outbid by those who are willing to do that.

How long can double digit appreciation continue? Not forever, but certainly longer than you afford to wait on the sidelines.

This is exactly the kind of mentality that leads to bubbles.

No economist anywhere would say that a 60k increase a year in housing value is healthy. At that point, for the taxes alone, it becomes a better option to rent.

Umm prices have been artificially low for a while, get a grip

[Anonymous]

Whatever prices may do - how much longer can buyers count on locking in these interest rates?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:That house a realtor just posted in Fall Church City needs a lot more work than new carpet, awning removal and a new door. That house is a tear down!

Eh, it's from the 80s it's probably salvagable for like $200k. Reason it is not selling is no one wants to spend $800k+ on an ugly home next to a car service station.

Location, location, location. Living next to a shop dumping oil out back == bad location.

The tripe that there are hidden gems is ridiculous; if a house is in a good location, it sells whether to developers or desperate buyers unless price is ridiculous. This bubble has everyone riled up, and people aren't looking for their own first home, they are looking for investment and not nice staging. Look at the crap that sells in Lyon Village in a day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Waiting is a recipe for disaster. Houses are appreciating at a 10 percent clip. On a $600k house, thats $60k per year. I doubt the OP will be able to get ahead of that snowball unless they purchase yesterday.

OP the truth is that there is a ton of money in this area pushing up prices, particularly for 'family housing'. In order to compete in this market you must become comfortable with the idea of being house poor to 'win' a decent house, because otherwise you will continue to be outbid by those who are willing to do that.

How long can double digit appreciation continue? Not forever, but certainly longer than you afford to wait on the sidelines.

This is exactly the kind of mentality that leads to bubbles.

No economist anywhere would say that a 60k increase a year in housing value is healthy. At that point, for the taxes alone, it becomes a better option to rent.

Umm prices have been artificially low for a while, get a grip

Not in this area. Prices have not been artificially low. Not at all. In fact, many say they never came down enough and remained artificially high because interest rates were held low and foreclosures were kept off the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm with 8:20. I was looking in 2011 in an area where houses in my range were selling in a week or less. (North Arlington.) I had pretty much resigned myself to buying in South Arlington (for the same money) when a house that had been on the market for almost 2 months finally dropped its price again and was only $25K above my "max." I saw it and made an offer that day at just below list price, $10K above my "max." They hadn't done much to stage it, hadn't painted, and the baths were very old. It needed a bit of work, plus the neighbors next door had a bunch of crappy cars parked outside. I got the house for the price I bid, and it appraised $50K higher than I paid, and then $150K higher when I refinanced. (and the neighbors have moved out.) We love our house and neighborhood, and all it took was some imagination and moving quickly.

south arlington...

yeah, you compromised a great deal on schools. wakefield may improve eventually but you are taking a long bet. private school? no kids?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Whatever prices may do - how much longer can buyers count on locking in these interest rates?

WHen rates go up that means salaries do as well. The fed said that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Waiting is a recipe for disaster. Houses are appreciating at a 10 percent clip. On a $600k house, thats $60k per year. I doubt the OP will be able to get ahead of that snowball unless they purchase yesterday.

OP the truth is that there is a ton of money in this area pushing up prices, particularly for 'family housing'. In order to compete in this market you must become comfortable with the idea of being house poor to 'win' a decent house, because otherwise you will continue to be outbid by those who are willing to do that.

How long can double digit appreciation continue? Not forever, but certainly longer than you afford to wait on the sidelines.

This is exactly the kind of mentality that leads to bubbles.

No economist anywhere would say that a 60k increase a year in housing value is healthy. At that point, for the taxes alone, it becomes a better option to rent.

Umm prices have been artificially low for a while, get a grip

Not in this area. Prices have not been artificially low. Not at all. In fact, many say they never came down enough and remained artificially high because interest rates were held low and foreclosures were kept off the market.

+1. seriously, when were prices here artificially low? what was pushing down prices 'artificially'? the popping bubble? foreclosures?

ZIRP and QE are the artificial temporary housing stimulus supporting ridiculous prices; we'll see how it unwinds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That house a realtor just posted in Fall Church City needs a lot more work than new carpet, awning removal and a new door. That house is a tear down!

Eh, it's from the 80s it's probably salvagable for like $200k. Reason it is not selling is no one wants to spend $800k+ on an ugly home next to a car service station.

Location, location, location. Living next to a shop dumping oil out back == bad location.

The tripe that there are hidden gems is ridiculous; if a house is in a good location, it sells whether to developers or desperate buyers unless price is ridiculous. This bubble has everyone riled up, and people aren't looking for their own first home, they are looking for investment and not nice staging. Look at the crap that sells in Lyon Village in a day.

You are saying the location is bad? You clearly are not up to date on the Tinner Hill and Harris Teeter Projects that have already been approved.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That house a realtor just posted in Fall Church City needs a lot more work than new carpet, awning removal and a new door. That house is a tear down!

Eh, it's from the 80s it's probably salvagable for like $200k. Reason it is not selling is no one wants to spend $800k+ on an ugly home next to a car service station.

Location, location, location. Living next to a shop dumping oil out back == bad location.

The tripe that there are hidden gems is ridiculous; if a house is in a good location, it sells whether to developers or desperate buyers unless price is ridiculous. This bubble has everyone riled up, and people aren't looking for their own first home, they are looking for investment and not nice staging. Look at the crap that sells in Lyon Village in a day.

You are saying the location is bad? You clearly are not up to date on the Tinner Hill and Harris Teeter Projects that have already been approved.

Nope, don't live in FC. So the service station next door will be torn down, that would definitely help.

But just b/c something has been approved doesn't mean it will be financed nor completed, so you are taking a gamble. Especially if rates rise eventually, projects can collapse.