This must be some sort of housing bubble again

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DC is immune to housing bubbles. So no, sorry OP - this is not a housing bubble. Good luck.

This time is different! I love the hubris here... everyplace things its immune and everyone else is a bubble. You know, all the kids are above average in DCPS!

[Anonymous]

This time is different! I love the hubris here... everyplace things its immune and everyone else is a bubble.

Notice that I said that DC is immune; not the whole country. During the housing crisis, sure some far-flung burbs got punished. But on the whole DC prices merely took a 10 minute breather before pushing higher. Nothing can stop this market - not the fact that much of the rest of the country is suffering, or that recent grads have massive tuition payments. Those inputs are irrelevant to the DC housing market (and a few others) which seems to be exogenous to the larger economy. There is just too much funny funneling in pushing up prices for us to get implicated in other housing markets' ills.

[Anonymous]

^*money, not "funny"
(Though "funny money" wouldn't be far from the meaning, either.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^*money, not "funny"
(Though "funny money" wouldn't be far from the meaning, either.)

you are right it is funny money, which is why this will end badly. very Freudian!

[Anonymous]

OP here: We are currently renting in the Robinson district and are happy with the schools and area in general, but the commute into DC is long for my husband. We by no means are limiting ourselves to a specific neighborhood or one school district. We are hoping we can get something in the Annandale Woodson school area since the commute and schools would be best....but so is everybody else who's looking for a house!

Areas we are considering are Fairfax, Burke, West Springfield, and Vienna. Some are obviously much more affordable than others, but the commute isn't as great so we're trying to find a good balance that would fit our family and our needs.

Thank you so much for those of you who have recommended waiting. The more I think of it, the more I realize that is probably the best bet. Like it's been mentioned above, supply is low so prices will be higher. Let's hope this spring/summer bring on a good amount of inventory.

And I never claimed to know it all when it came to the economics of what would constitute a true housing bubble. I'm not an economist. Just a person trying to live within my means and buy a house that I can raise my kids in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP I'm with you on the housing bubble.

This area has terrible housing stock. The ones in the good school districts get top dollar, but are often shitty, falling down or have crazy renovations (we refer to these as the Frankenstein houses). It's totally and unbelievably depressing. For any amount of money, the houses aren't good. 800k should buy you a well made, renovated home, but here it buys you Pimmit Hills or a tear down. Very sobering. What would cost 250k in other areas can be 1.4 million here.

Also what were builders thinking in the 50s-70s here?!! Worst home architecture.

What's wrong with pimmit hills? I think it is the best investment with greatest potential for being a top tiered neighborhood.

I live in McLean and wouldn't hesitate to buy in Pimmit Hills but would have 10 years a go.

One builder, Paramount Construction, is offering to build similar houses on teardown lots in Pimmit Hills and McLean. The Pimmit Hills house is on a slightly smaller lot, but $300,000 less.

I said it as an investment and has potential for upwards, meaning if you can get in now it will go up higher than already established "good" neighborhoods. The massive metro centered development nearby, the huge amount of teardowns on every block and the continual increase in quality in the school pyramids are going to transform the PH neighborhood. In McLean this happened to some of the older neighborhoods back in the 80s-90s.

So does the big differential mean there's still upside potential or that PH is just less desirable, or both? I thought you were saying you needed to buy in PH 10 years ago to see appreciation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP I'm with you on the housing bubble.

This area has terrible housing stock. The ones in the good school districts get top dollar, but are often shitty, falling down or have crazy renovations (we refer to these as the Frankenstein houses). It's totally and unbelievably depressing. For any amount of money, the houses aren't good. 800k should buy you a well made, renovated home, but here it buys you Pimmit Hills or a tear down. Very sobering. What would cost 250k in other areas can be 1.4 million here.

Also what were builders thinking in the 50s-70s here?!! Worst home architecture.

What's wrong with pimmit hills? I think it is the best investment with greatest potential for being a top tiered neighborhood.

I live in McLean and wouldn't hesitate to buy in Pimmit Hills but would have 10 years a go.

One builder, Paramount Construction, is offering to build similar houses on teardown lots in Pimmit Hills and McLean. The Pimmit Hills house is on a slightly smaller lot, but $300,000 less.

I said it as an investment and has potential for upwards, meaning if you can get in now it will go up higher than already established "good" neighborhoods. The massive metro centered development nearby, the huge amount of teardowns on every block and the continual increase in quality in the school pyramids are going to transform the PH neighborhood. In McLean this happened to some of the older neighborhoods back in the 80s-90s.

So does the big differential mean there's still upside potential or that PH is just less desirable, or both? I thought you were saying you needed to buy in PH 10 years ago to see appreciation.

There is upside still, and it will become more desirable. I wouldn't have bought in PH 10 years a go when the silver line and development plans weren't a sure thing. I also notice a major change in the last 10 years. Anyways just my 2 cents.

[Anonymous]

9:53 - I'm the 9:30 poster. I may not have been clear or your reading comprehension might not have been great, but the house I bought was in North Arlington. For the tax asssessed value. Walkable to Yorktown HS. And it's appreciated a lot in 2.5 years. (I had resigned myself to buying in South Arlington, but didn't have to.)

My point was that the OP needs to keep an open mind for overlooked houses - houses that haven't been staged, that aren't attracting bidding wars for whatever reason.

[Anonymous]

Good for you OP. I think late July will be a good time. Basically, once it's too late to close in time for school. This is what happened last year.

We paid asking last spring on a non-listed (word of mouth) FSBO because we didn't want to be in competition with others. Worked out great for us. The same model down the street sold for $40k more a few months later in no better condition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:if rates rise it means the economy has recovered and businesses are giving raises and hiring.

You know how naive you sound?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Waiting is a recipe for disaster. Houses are appreciating at a 10 percent clip. On a $600k house, thats $60k per year. I doubt the OP will be able to get ahead of that snowball unless they purchase yesterday.

OP the truth is that there is a ton of money in this area pushing up prices, particularly for 'family housing'. In order to compete in this market you must become comfortable with the idea of being house poor to 'win' a decent house, because otherwise you will continue to be outbid by those who are willing to do that.

[b[How long can double digit appreciation continue? Not forever, but certainly longer than you afford to wait on the sidelines.[/b]

This is exactly the kind of mentality that leads to bubbles.

No economist anywhere would say that a 60k increase a year in housing value is healthy. At that point, for the taxes alone, it becomes a better option to rent.

Yet reality is not dictated by if something is 'healthy'. Irrational behavior can go on MUCH longer than you can wait. If you choose not to buy today, tomorrow the prospect of EVER purchasing in this area recedes a bit further into the horizon. Good luck with that strategy.

If someone can't afford what it takes to get a house in this market in their desired location, then "strategy" is moot. I think too many people are encouraged to take on loans that they really can't afford, to wipe out whatever savings they have on escalation clauses, et cetera, out of fear of being priced out of the market entirely. But being completely house poor for the next couple of decades and possibly not even being able to afford to make necessary repairs a better prospect than renting indefinitely? I'm not for sure. I don't think it's ever a good idea to make big financial decisions based on fear.

Sure but either choice is based on fear. Fear of being forever house poor or being forever priced out of the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is immune to housing bubbles. So no, sorry OP - this is not a housing bubble. Good luck.

This time is different! I love the hubris here... everyplace things its immune and everyone else is a bubble. You know, all the kids are above average in DCPS!

It feels somehow comforting to me that we still have such slow thinkers in DC. Did you not see the post from the person who bought in the district 15 years ago? Look at the DC real estate prices 20 years ago. You don't wish you could go back and take that deal? DC is not the rest of the country. Show me which DC neighborhood people bought into fifteen, ten, five years ago and are now feeling totally burned because they overpaid and wouldn't now be able to sell their home for what they paid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is immune to housing bubbles. So no, sorry OP - this is not a housing bubble. Good luck.

This time is different! I love the hubris here... everyplace things its immune and everyone else is a bubble. You know, all the kids are above average in DCPS!

It feels somehow comforting to me that we still have such slow thinkers in DC. Did you not see the post from the person who bought in the district 15 years ago? Look at the DC real estate prices 20 years ago. You don't wish you could go back and take that deal? DC is not the rest of the country. Show me which DC neighborhood people bought into fifteen, ten, five years ago and are now feeling totally burned because they overpaid and wouldn't now be able to sell their home for what they paid.

Sigh. The last fifteen years coincides with the capital gains exclusion and the repeal of glass-stegal. NY, Boston, SF, Phoenix have all seen massive real estate rise and gentrification over this period.

But yes, I see now that DC is truly Paris on the Potomac, rats and all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is immune to housing bubbles. So no, sorry OP - this is not a housing bubble. Good luck.

This time is different! I love the hubris here... everyplace things its immune and everyone else is a bubble. You know, all the kids are above average in DCPS!

It feels somehow comforting to me that we still have such slow thinkers in DC. Did you not see the post from the person who bought in the district 15 years ago? Look at the DC real estate prices 20 years ago. You don't wish you could go back and take that deal? DC is not the rest of the country. Show me which DC neighborhood people bought into fifteen, ten, five years ago and are now feeling totally burned because they overpaid and wouldn't now be able to sell their home for what they paid.

Sigh. The last fifteen years coincides with the capital gains exclusion and the repeal of glass-stegal. NY, Boston, SF, Phoenix have all seen massive real estate rise and gentrification over this period.

But yes, I see now that DC is truly Paris on the Potomac, rats and all.

What does Paris have to do with it? DC could be the ugliest city in the country; it is nevertheless going to continue to get more expensive over the long haul.

Also, comparing DC to Phoenix suggests you don't know what you're talking about. You sound bitter. Sorry you missed out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is immune to housing bubbles. So no, sorry OP - this is not a housing bubble. Good luck.

This time is different! I love the hubris here... everyplace things its immune and everyone else is a bubble. You know, all the kids are above average in DCPS!

It feels somehow comforting to me that we still have such slow thinkers in DC. Did you not see the post from the person who bought in the district 15 years ago? Look at the DC real estate prices 20 years ago. You don't wish you could go back and take that deal? DC is not the rest of the country. Show me which DC neighborhood people bought into fifteen, ten, five years ago and are now feeling totally burned because they overpaid and wouldn't now be able to sell their home for what they paid.

Sigh. The last fifteen years coincides with the capital gains exclusion and the repeal of glass-stegal. NY, Boston, SF, Phoenix have all seen massive real estate rise and gentrification over this period.

But yes, I see now that DC is truly Paris on the Potomac, rats and all.

What does Paris have to do with it? DC could be the ugliest city in the country; it is nevertheless going to continue to get more expensive over the long haul.

Also, comparing DC to Phoenix suggests you don't know what you're talking about. You sound bitter. Sorry you missed out.

The completely irrelevant reference to the repeal of Glass-Steagal is even better. Thrown out there to sound semi informed, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the topic. Besides, GLB marked the end of the gradual repeal of GS. It really signifies the perhaps begrudging acceptance by federal regulators of the effect of incremental changes they'd permitted to financial regulation. I've said it before and I'll say it again, another instance of "sound and fury, signifying nothing."