Is there going to be panic selling?
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
|
Even full time RTO is barely a big deal. You get tons of vacation days holidays. Not that many days at work.
My first job I worked 6 days a week, ten vacation day and ten holidays. That job was very very close to my house or would have been very hard to do. If I had a 8-4 pm job M-F with 12 Holidays and 5 weeks vacation and sick days I could easily do a long commute. |
Anonymous
And to add to this - even if they elect to rent their house out, it'll be hard to match their monthly payment. Owning is so much more expensive than renting. They'll be competing with rentals bought back in 2018 (if not earlier) which can be thousands cheaper. |
Anonymous
If all these people live here and find themselves suddenly unemployed, yes. It's not about whether they can afford their homes either, you can have a paid off house, but you still need income to pay RE taxes, utilities, maintenance, food, health insurance, other basics just to survive. It's thousands of dollars a month. You can only survive if you have some passive income source from investments, pensions, payouts or whatever or a spouse whose jobs won't be affected. If you rely on earned income you will be toast when you run out of your savings if job market doesn't stabilize and new jobs aren't created to at least partially replace massive job losses. We are trying to guess the unknown and unpredictable. Anything can happen, it could go either way TBH. DC metro could become a dump or will experience even more rapid growth if there some is injection of private capital and replacement of fed jobs. |
Anonymous
My spouse is with a private company. So, early morning and late night meetings. It was ok when they could flex but they take a call or two before leaving at 7, calls during the commute, don’t leave till 5-6-7 and them more calls when they get home. It’s not sustainable. Our house is paid off, we have kids who we don’t want to disrupt their lives, etc. it ducks as they were wfh long before Covid. |
Anonymous
Correct. But if job market here becomes non existent relying only on whatever private sector companies are here and whatever is left of Fed functions they cannot possibly cut, then people who are chronically unemployed will be looking to move because they can't afford to live even if their housing is free. People who must work to live will be the first to flee if unable to find jobs for many months. RE market on the lower end would probably get more movement at first. Those with already accumulated wealth can certainly stay forever, but they won't enjoy living in a place that's declining economically and looking depressed. They won't be selling as they likely have other homes, but they would not be inclined to stay here much and spend money in local economy. The latter is unlikely to happen because DC is still a nation's capital and it's doubtful this administration wants to project an image of despair and rundown everything around them when they invite foreign leaders in. It has to at least "appear" that MAGA is working, right?  Remember when Chinese leader was invited to visit SF and how quickly they cleaned up as if decades old skid rows had never existed?
|
Anonymous
Well Defense is an enormous share of the spending. USAID is a tiny fraction and mostly not in DC. And DOE, DOL etc will go on existing and contracting, probably in greater amounts ultimately given their decimated workforces |
Anonymous
This, so well said! People from here want to move to the 2nd tier cities that are already pretty much in the same price range as DC metro if you compare premium area to premium area. When someone still touts how any of these cities are affordable they are looking at sprawl suburbia. They tend to compare premium areas of HCOL areas to the mid range areas of the other cities, and the fools rush in. I used to look to buy in Dallas after giving up on Bay Area over 2 decades ago. I found areas I liked to be already rather expensive at that time. Nice homes were already in millions. Affordable homes that made sense were badly run down and in need of gut renovation and not even in the most convenient areas I liked. Or they were in Plano, Frisco, where they still had a lot of supply of quickly built up sprawl. But now these are also pricey with all the migration from HCOL states. |
Anonymous
|
One thing people underestimate is the effects on private sector companies outside DC. If you're a federal employee, think of all the software programs you use at work -- everything from virus scan programs (usually multiple of them because the threat environment is very complicated), to document management, to benefits. You probably don't notice the companies behind all of them, but most are publicly traded. Now, imagine Musk cuts back on all those software programs, or the agencies find a way to do it themselves due to less in appropriations.
Suddenly, the 10% YOY revenue increases those companies were reporting to their investors stop. Revenues are flat or dropping. That means their stock prices drop because built into those stock prices were an expectation that revenues would continue to go up. With dropping or stagnant revenues, and fewer government customers, those companies now need to do layoffs. And before you now it, we'll be in a recession with no easy way out. It's going to get ugly, folks. |
Anonymous
This. Why are these zillionares so close to Trump now and some are looking to buy homes here? DC isn't necessarily a vacation spot for the ultra wealthy. They are here to get closer to the government's teet and divert as much of its flow into their direction.. This is absolutely guaranteed to happen and anyone who uses basic logic can see what's going on. The only question remains whether these new opportunities will be created in DC metro or will be entirely relocated to other areas. My guess is both will happen. They aren't going to trash DC, they will leverage whatever is here as it's also going to save money. People who are already trained, know their way around the systems, infrastructure and offices already existing and empty and waiting, transit system and affluence providing nice things high earning employees are going to appreciate. |
Anonymous
USAID is not the only contractor. We have lost contracts at IRS, Energy, Education, HHS, other independent agencies. |
Anonymous
I also don’t think Trump is going to be crazy about moving agencies out of DC. A big part of the reason those agencies are in DC in the first place is so they can work with the White House and each other more easily. Spreading them out across the country creates separation from Trump that could limit his control |
Anonymous
Initially contracts would be lost as it's expected, because they will have to be reviewed. This happens in the private industry contracting a lot. Consulting companies even those deeply embedded and working with their fortune 500 client lose contracts all the time especially during the reorgs. Often New contracting companies are brought in to replace older vendors or older vendors have to take a step back and "re-submit" the contracts to the new leadership. Often redo some of the initial scoping work, trying to sell business at a different angle consistent with the goal of the new leadership. It's what's going to eventually happen, but the first stage is going to be pure pain because it's about elimination. Restructuring will come later. |
Anonymous
No, they are here to run the government. It’s been a long time coming, they believe government is for profit and not for what it is meant to be, serves the public. It seems we’re moving towards no separation between, government, church and business. |
Anonymous
I agree that’s why, but the reason they WANT to run the government is to enrich themselves by cutting rules and regulations and getting contracts |
Anonymous
Yes but only in the space they want contracts. |