Remember all the dorks spamming last year real estate was going to crash?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wonder what happened to the poster who described herself as some kind of "shark" who was waiting for the housing market to tank so that she would swoop in buy properties well below market.

lolllll!! I remember that crazy poster! hahaha

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's the issue that has been cited again and again (and ignored again and again). The Washington DC metropolitan region continues to grow in population with a significant number of higher income jobs coming in every year. The population growth signifcantly outpaces the housing growth and in the closer in areas, which are more desireable, there is very little room for additional housing growth. In closer in regions, the most housing "growth" is really just rebuilding. Developers buy older smaller properties and build bigger more expensive housing.

But the issue is that we have more population and many of them with higher end incomes, who are immigrating into our region and they all want what everyone wants, they want convenience to the urban areas and the benefits and perks of upper income. This is classic supply and demand. When supply is fixed or growing at a much slower pace than demand, prices go up, because you have more people willing to spend more to get what they want over those who aren't willing or able to pay more.

With the federal government here, there is no way that the Washington DC metropolitan region will experience a decrease in population growth and so demand will continue to grow. Unlike other metropolitan regions (like many rust belt cities) the federal government is not going anywhere and the various occupations that support it from federal contractors, to lawyers, to lobbyists, will keep the housing market rising. The increases vary, slower in some years, faster in others, but the prices will continue to rise. The housing crash and price corrections from 2008 were a result of financial deception by the lending industry (zero percent mortgages, sub prime mortgages, high ARM rates, etc) and was a financial correction more than a housing correction.

Saying we're not situated in exactly the same way as 2008 makes no sense. We just bought a home last year, so I'm not rooting for a plummet in the housing market. But any sort of economic downturn would likely result in a downturn in the real estate market. There are countless scenarios that could trigger this.

The difference is that the real estate collapse contributed to the economic downturn. Which is different than an economic downtown impacting home prices.

Leading up to 2008, you had janitors getting million dollar loans. That's not happening today. Heck, I remember when I first bought in 2007, the lender literally told me 'okay, we approved you at the 350 amount you requested. But let me know if you want to get higher. We can get you up to any number you want"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a great business idea! An agent looking to drum up more business can make the following offer to buyers: if you buy in Arlington, Bethesda, or whatever other desirable areas the agent picks, and you need to sell within 10 years, the agent will reimburse any decrease in the sales price of the house. So if the buyer buys for $2 million, but then sells for $1.9 million in 2030, the agent will owe that person $100K.

If any agent is willing to do this (and it seems like a risk-free proposition from everyone on here), just post here.

There was an Arlington agent who advertised a few years ago that she would buy your home if she couldn't sell it in about 60 days. She got caught by a smart lawyer and could not wiggle her way out of the contract she signed. She had to buy a $1M condo, lived there for a while, and took a loss when she sold it.

Name the "smart" lawyer. He or she must be so proud of themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We have family in California, blocks from the beach. Put their house on the market for $1.55M. Good public schools, lots of families dying to get into that neighborhood. It's like a picture postcard of the California lifestyle.

What happens? Bidding war with 5 offers. Two full offers for cash. Three with financing that trigger escalation clauses.

Winning bidder? $1.665M, with $1m downpayment.

Two Boomer lawyers who already live nearby who, quote, "want another house near the beach so their friends and family can stay in during the holidays."

That's who are buying all these homes at crazy prices when mortgages are 7%+.

No way in hell the Fed is cutting rates in 2024. Lots of slop still in the system.

Translation: Greedy parasite lawyers moonlight as airbnb / landlords.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We have family in California, blocks from the beach. Put their house on the market for $1.55M. Good public schools, lots of families dying to get into that neighborhood. It's like a picture postcard of the California lifestyle.

What happens? Bidding war with 5 offers. Two full offers for cash. Three with financing that trigger escalation clauses.

Winning bidder? $1.665M, with $1m downpayment.

Two Boomer lawyers who already live nearby who, quote, "want another house near the beach so their friends and family can stay in during the holidays."

That's who are buying all these homes at crazy prices when mortgages are 7%+.

No way in hell the Fed is cutting rates in 2024. Lots of slop still in the system.

Translation: Greedy parasite lawyers moonlight as airbnb / landlords.

TBH, STRs in that area have been decimated. Bookings are waaaaay down, nightly prices have declined per AirDNA (I ran an analysis last year)

No way they could generate a decent return at the premium price they are paying. I sincerely think they are just loaded and want the spare house for friends/family. Maybe they will occasionally STR, but that will probably only cover the utilities, insurance, and property taxes.

[Anonymous]

Rich old lawyers are often landlords in their spare time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wonder what happened to the poster who described herself as some kind of "shark" who was waiting for the housing market to tank so that she would swoop in buy properties well below market.

The DCUM buying shark. That thread certainly aged well.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1060698.page

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's the issue that has been cited again and again (and ignored again and again). The Washington DC metropolitan region continues to grow in population with a significant number of higher income jobs coming in every year. The population growth signifcantly outpaces the housing growth and in the closer in areas, which are more desireable, there is very little room for additional housing growth. In closer in regions, the most housing "growth" is really just rebuilding. Developers buy older smaller properties and build bigger more expensive housing.

But the issue is that we have more population and many of them with higher end incomes, who are immigrating into our region and they all want what everyone wants, they want convenience to the urban areas and the benefits and perks of upper income. This is classic supply and demand. When supply is fixed or growing at a much slower pace than demand, prices go up, because you have more people willing to spend more to get what they want over those who aren't willing or able to pay more.

With the federal government here, there is no way that the Washington DC metropolitan region will experience a decrease in population growth and so demand will continue to grow. Unlike other metropolitan regions (like many rust belt cities) the federal government is not going anywhere and the various occupations that support it from federal contractors, to lawyers, to lobbyists, will keep the housing market rising. The increases vary, slower in some years, faster in others, but the prices will continue to rise. The housing crash and price corrections from 2008 were a result of financial deception by the lending industry (zero percent mortgages, sub prime mortgages, high ARM rates, etc) and was a financial correction more than a housing correction.

Saying we're not situated in exactly the same way as 2008 makes no sense. We just bought a home last year, so I'm not rooting for a plummet in the housing market. But any sort of economic downturn would likely result in a downturn in the real estate market. There are countless scenarios that could trigger this.

The difference is that the real estate collapse contributed to the economic downturn. Which is different than an economic downtown impacting home prices.

Leading up to 2008, you had janitors getting million dollar loans. That's not happening today. Heck, I remember when I first bought in 2007, the lender literally told me 'okay, we approved you at the 350 amount you requested. But let me know if you want to get higher. We can get you up to any number you want"

Posters saying we can't have a RE downturn because we're not making the same exact type of lending mistake as in 2008 are delusional. Bad lending practices was only one of the many possible drivers for a RE downturn.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread may not age well.

People on this board have been calling this a bubble for ten years.

I've been coming here since 2009 or 2010 and I can absolutely agree that people have been saying that we're in a bubble for a long time. Certainly as long as I've been visiting this site. Anyway, almost as soon as housing prices stopped falling after the crash, people were here calling that they'd start falling again (that it was a false bottom). They were saying things like people buying then were "trying to catch a falling knife". I saw that phrase many times back then.

My advice for anyone thinking about buying or feels that they're ready to buy is that you find the areas you'd like to live in and start watching for and bidding on houses that you can afford. Don't worry about people calling for bubbles. If your home value falls, it will likely be temporary and even if it isn't, part of your payment will go to your equity and you'll eventually pay down your house enough that you aren't upside down on the loan. Some people walk away from their houses 15 years ago when they were upside down on their loans. Where would they be now if they had kept them? 15 years of extra payments and houses above the last bubble. I wouldn't worry about what others say. Just worry about if you're ready to buy. Don't buy a house as an investment. Buy it as a home to raise your family.

Exactly. The real financial benefit to owning a home is locking in the price you pay for shelter for the next 30 years. As your income (hopefully) increases over time, the share that goes to shelter payments decreases. Then, after 30 years, you just have to pay taxes and insurance.

[Anonymous]

Prices only go up.

[Anonymous]

It's true, I take your point. The only thing I'll point out is that there's more inventory sitting a little longer in the neighborhoods like 20816. The 2+m houses that had 5 days to contract are sitting for a few weekends and open houses this spring. That's not a cratered market, but it is a bit teensy more softer...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's true, I take your point. The only thing I'll point out is that there's more inventory sitting a little longer in the neighborhoods like 20816. The 2+m houses that had 5 days to contract are sitting for a few weekends and open houses this spring. That's not a cratered market, but it is a bit teensy more softer...

That makes sense. I don’t think demand went down, affordability went down so there’s just less people who can make offers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's the issue that has been cited again and again (and ignored again and again). The Washington DC metropolitan region continues to grow in population with a significant number of higher income jobs coming in every year. The population growth signifcantly outpaces the housing growth and in the closer in areas, which are more desireable, there is very little room for additional housing growth. In closer in regions, the most housing "growth" is really just rebuilding. Developers buy older smaller properties and build bigger more expensive housing.

But the issue is that we have more population and many of them with higher end incomes, who are immigrating into our region and they all want what everyone wants, they want convenience to the urban areas and the benefits and perks of upper income. This is classic supply and demand. When supply is fixed or growing at a much slower pace than demand, prices go up, because you have more people willing to spend more to get what they want over those who aren't willing or able to pay more.

With the federal government here, there is no way that the Washington DC metropolitan region will experience a decrease in population growth and so demand will continue to grow. Unlike other metropolitan regions (like many rust belt cities) the federal government is not going anywhere and the various occupations that support it from federal contractors, to lawyers, to lobbyists, will keep the housing market rising. The increases vary, slower in some years, faster in others, but the prices will continue to rise. The housing crash and price corrections from 2008 were a result of financial deception by the lending industry (zero percent mortgages, sub prime mortgages, high ARM rates, etc) and was a financial correction more than a housing correction.

Saying we're not situated in exactly the same way as 2008 makes no sense. We just bought a home last year, so I'm not rooting for a plummet in the housing market. But any sort of economic downturn would likely result in a downturn in the real estate market. There are countless scenarios that could trigger this.

The difference is that the real estate collapse contributed to the economic downturn. Which is different than an economic downtown impacting home prices.

Leading up to 2008, you had janitors getting million dollar loans. That's not happening today. Heck, I remember when I first bought in 2007, the lender literally told me 'okay, we approved you at the 350 amount you requested. But let me know if you want to get higher. We can get you up to any number you want"

Posters saying we can't have a RE downturn because we're not making the same exact type of lending mistake as in 2008 are delusional. Bad lending practices was only one of the many possible drivers for a RE downturn.

The subprime mortgage collapse was the major reason for the 2008 housing crash and a big part behind the overall 2008 crash. We don't have a subprime mortgage crisis. Enormous difference. Mortgage lending standards are much more stringent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's the issue that has been cited again and again (and ignored again and again). The Washington DC metropolitan region continues to grow in population with a significant number of higher income jobs coming in every year. The population growth signifcantly outpaces the housing growth and in the closer in areas, which are more desireable, there is very little room for additional housing growth. In closer in regions, the most housing "growth" is really just rebuilding. Developers buy older smaller properties and build bigger more expensive housing.

But the issue is that we have more population and many of them with higher end incomes, who are immigrating into our region and they all want what everyone wants, they want convenience to the urban areas and the benefits and perks of upper income. This is classic supply and demand. When supply is fixed or growing at a much slower pace than demand, prices go up, because you have more people willing to spend more to get what they want over those who aren't willing or able to pay more.

With the federal government here, there is no way that the Washington DC metropolitan region will experience a decrease in population growth and so demand will continue to grow. Unlike other metropolitan regions (like many rust belt cities) the federal government is not going anywhere and the various occupations that support it from federal contractors, to lawyers, to lobbyists, will keep the housing market rising. The increases vary, slower in some years, faster in others, but the prices will continue to rise. The housing crash and price corrections from 2008 were a result of financial deception by the lending industry (zero percent mortgages, sub prime mortgages, high ARM rates, etc) and was a financial correction more than a housing correction.

Saying we're not situated in exactly the same way as 2008 makes no sense. We just bought a home last year, so I'm not rooting for a plummet in the housing market. But any sort of economic downturn would likely result in a downturn in the real estate market. There are countless scenarios that could trigger this.

The difference is that the real estate collapse contributed to the economic downturn. Which is different than an economic downtown impacting home prices.

Leading up to 2008, you had janitors getting million dollar loans. That's not happening today. Heck, I remember when I first bought in 2007, the lender literally told me 'okay, we approved you at the 350 amount you requested. But let me know if you want to get higher. We can get you up to any number you want"

Posters saying we can't have a RE downturn because we're not making the same exact type of lending mistake as in 2008 are delusional. Bad lending practices was only one of the many possible drivers for a RE downturn.

The subprime mortgage collapse was the major reason for the 2008 housing crash and a big part behind the overall 2008 crash. We don't have a subprime mortgage crisis. Enormous difference. Mortgage lending standards are much more stringent.

Yup, the only delusional poster on this thread is the one acting like subprime lending WASNT the reason for the collapse. Of course it was. It was literally THE reason. People would get a mortgage and then be unable to even make the first payment.

The fact that lending standards are tighter will protect this market. There will not be a flood of foreclosures.

In fact, the most likely scenario is that the market grinds to a halt. People have equity in their homes but are unwilling to sell because they don't want to lose their interest rate. So its just slows down to only those that absolutely need to sell, or the buyers which are able to purchase their next home in cash.

But that does not result in any type of crash similar to 2008.

[Anonymous]

This is really interesting.