Remember all the dorks spamming last year real estate was going to crash?

[Anonymous]

I had a family member purchase in 05 in the craziness run up like we have seen. It took all the way until this crazy run up to sell in August 21 to turn a profit of about 15%. Take it for what its worth but if you buy at these levels, you are stuck for a very long time if the market corrects back to reality and it will.

Life is a lot more interesting in retrospect, just saying.

[Anonymous]

The agents are really out in full force in this thread. Always a great time to buy and sell, according to them.

[Anonymous]

Here's the issue that has been cited again and again (and ignored again and again). The Washington DC metropolitan region continues to grow in population with a significant number of higher income jobs coming in every year. The population growth signifcantly outpaces the housing growth and in the closer in areas, which are more desireable, there is very little room for additional housing growth. In closer in regions, the most housing "growth" is really just rebuilding. Developers buy older smaller properties and build bigger more expensive housing.

But the issue is that we have more population and many of them with higher end incomes, who are immigrating into our region and they all want what everyone wants, they want convenience to the urban areas and the benefits and perks of upper income. This is classic supply and demand. When supply is fixed or growing at a much slower pace than demand, prices go up, because you have more people willing to spend more to get what they want over those who aren't willing or able to pay more.

With the federal government here, there is no way that the Washington DC metropolitan region will experience a decrease in population growth and so demand will continue to grow. Unlike other metropolitan regions (like many rust belt cities) the federal government is not going anywhere and the various occupations that support it from federal contractors, to lawyers, to lobbyists, will keep the housing market rising. The increases vary, slower in some years, faster in others, but the prices will continue to rise. The housing crash and price corrections from 2008 were a result of financial deception by the lending industry (zero percent mortgages, sub prime mortgages, high ARM rates, etc) and was a financial correction more than a housing correction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here's the issue that has been cited again and again (and ignored again and again). The Washington DC metropolitan region continues to grow in population with a significant number of higher income jobs coming in every year. The population growth signifcantly outpaces the housing growth and in the closer in areas, which are more desireable, there is very little room for additional housing growth. In closer in regions, the most housing "growth" is really just rebuilding. Developers buy older smaller properties and build bigger more expensive housing.

But the issue is that we have more population and many of them with higher end incomes, who are immigrating into our region and they all want what everyone wants, they want convenience to the urban areas and the benefits and perks of upper income. This is classic supply and demand. When supply is fixed or growing at a much slower pace than demand, prices go up, because you have more people willing to spend more to get what they want over those who aren't willing or able to pay more.

With the federal government here, there is no way that the Washington DC metropolitan region will experience a decrease in population growth and so demand will continue to grow. Unlike other metropolitan regions (like many rust belt cities) the federal government is not going anywhere and the various occupations that support it from federal contractors, to lawyers, to lobbyists, will keep the housing market rising. The increases vary, slower in some years, faster in others, but the prices will continue to rise. The housing crash and price corrections from 2008 were a result of financial deception by the lending industry (zero percent mortgages, sub prime mortgages, high ARM rates, etc) and was a financial correction more than a housing correction.

+1 It will take a big demographic shift, which is decades away, to lead to any significant housing price reductions. That or a huge recession. And if that happens, you might lose your job and your retirement accounts may shrink so that's not awesome.

I convinced my sister to stop sitting out the market when I asked her if she anticipated a large increase in housing supply in her big city in the northeast. She is currently paying 4% interest on the mortgage her dream house and extremely relieved to have jumped in when she did. There is no relief coming for people who feel priced out of what they want. Buy something you like and can afford when you are ready and don't try to time the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The agents are really out in full force in this thread. Always a great time to buy and sell, according to them.

Yeah yeah you said this three years ago. The market is turning! You said. You will soon be underwater! You said. lol.

[Anonymous]

^^^ Precisely. If there was ever going to be a RE pop in DC metro, it would have been work from home induced. But it didn't happen. DC real estate will continue to soar, to the chagrin of the seething apt dwellers and townhome owners.

[Anonymous]

I have a great business idea! An agent looking to drum up more business can make the following offer to buyers: if you buy in Arlington, Bethesda, or whatever other desirable areas the agent picks, and you need to sell within 10 years, the agent will reimburse any decrease in the sales price of the house. So if the buyer buys for $2 million, but then sells for $1.9 million in 2030, the agent will owe that person $100K.

If any agent is willing to do this (and it seems like a risk-free proposition from everyone on here), just post here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In retrospect of course it now seems that it was a good decision to buy. However, when you see a house increase from $1.2 to $1.8 in a matter of just a few years, it is hard not to wonder if the buyer could be overpaying. This does not seem to be a normal rate of increase for housing - especially when mortgage rates went up at the same time.

agree. this isn't a normal market at all. i don't really see any reason that prices will come down (at least not right now) but this certainly isn't the norm.

Part of it is due to demographics - there's currently 4 generations in the housing market right now actively buying homes: Boomers (who actually made up most of the successful buyers in the past 18 months!), GenX, Millennials, and now the older end of Gen Z.

Not sure we've ever had this level of demand for homes in US history. Tons of active buyers, but not a lot of homes to purchase.

Baby boomers are dominating the housing market, new data shows
https://thehill.com/business/4307830-share-of-first-time-home-buyers-ticks-up-remains-near-record-lows/#:~:text=Baby%20boomers%20are%20dominating%20the%20housing%20market%2C%20new%20data%20shows,-by%20Julia%20Shapero&text=The%20share%20of%20first%2Dtime,Association%20of%20Realtors%20(NAR).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here's the issue that has been cited again and again (and ignored again and again). The Washington DC metropolitan region continues to grow in population with a significant number of higher income jobs coming in every year. The population growth signifcantly outpaces the housing growth and in the closer in areas, which are more desireable, there is very little room for additional housing growth. In closer in regions, the most housing "growth" is really just rebuilding. Developers buy older smaller properties and build bigger more expensive housing.

But the issue is that we have more population and many of them with higher end incomes, who are immigrating into our region and they all want what everyone wants, they want convenience to the urban areas and the benefits and perks of upper income. This is classic supply and demand. When supply is fixed or growing at a much slower pace than demand, prices go up, because you have more people willing to spend more to get what they want over those who aren't willing or able to pay more.

With the federal government here, there is no way that the Washington DC metropolitan region will experience a decrease in population growth and so demand will continue to grow. Unlike other metropolitan regions (like many rust belt cities) the federal government is not going anywhere and the various occupations that support it from federal contractors, to lawyers, to lobbyists, will keep the housing market rising. The increases vary, slower in some years, faster in others, but the prices will continue to rise. The housing crash and price corrections from 2008 were a result of financial deception by the lending industry (zero percent mortgages, sub prime mortgages, high ARM rates, etc) and was a financial correction more than a housing correction.

Saying we're not situated in exactly the same way as 2008 makes no sense. We just bought a home last year, so I'm not rooting for a plummet in the housing market. But any sort of economic downturn would likely result in a downturn in the real estate market. There are countless scenarios that could trigger this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People who bought in 2021 and 2022 have been cashing in over the last six months in my neighborhood.

Yep. Easy payday.

Where are they going?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a great business idea! An agent looking to drum up more business can make the following offer to buyers: if you buy in Arlington, Bethesda, or whatever other desirable areas the agent picks, and you need to sell within 10 years, the agent will reimburse any decrease in the sales price of the house. So if the buyer buys for $2 million, but then sells for $1.9 million in 2030, the agent will owe that person $100K.

If any agent is willing to do this (and it seems like a risk-free proposition from everyone on here), just post here.

There was an Arlington agent who advertised a few years ago that she would buy your home if she couldn't sell it in about 60 days. She got caught by a smart lawyer and could not wiggle her way out of the contract she signed. She had to buy a $1M condo, lived there for a while, and took a loss when she sold it.

[Anonymous]

Wonder what happened to the poster who described herself as some kind of "shark" who was waiting for the housing market to tank so that she would swoop in buy properties well below market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This thread may not age well.

People on this board have been calling this a bubble for ten years.

I've been coming here since 2009 or 2010 and I can absolutely agree that people have been saying that we're in a bubble for a long time. Certainly as long as I've been visiting this site. Anyway, almost as soon as housing prices stopped falling after the crash, people were here calling that they'd start falling again (that it was a false bottom). They were saying things like people buying then were "trying to catch a falling knife". I saw that phrase many times back then.

My advice for anyone thinking about buying or feels that they're ready to buy is that you find the areas you'd like to live in and start watching for and bidding on houses that you can afford. Don't worry about people calling for bubbles. If your home value falls, it will likely be temporary and even if it isn't, part of your payment will go to your equity and you'll eventually pay down your house enough that you aren't upside down on the loan. Some people walk away from their houses 15 years ago when they were upside down on their loans. Where would they be now if they had kept them? 15 years of extra payments and houses above the last bubble. I wouldn't worry about what others say. Just worry about if you're ready to buy. Don't buy a house as an investment. Buy it as a home to raise your family.

[Anonymous]

We bought last summer and so far prices appear to be up another 5% so far this year per recent closings.

[Anonymous]

We have family in California, blocks from the beach. Put their house on the market for $1.55M. Good public schools, lots of families dying to get into that neighborhood. It's like a picture postcard of the California lifestyle.

What happens? Bidding war with 5 offers. Two full offers for cash. Three with financing that trigger escalation clauses.

Winning bidder? $1.665M, with $1m downpayment.

Two Boomer lawyers who already live nearby who, quote, "want another house near the beach so their friends and family can stay in during the holidays."

That's who are buying all these homes at crazy prices when mortgages are 7%+.

No way in hell the Fed is cutting rates in 2024. Lots of slop still in the system.