Kerch Bridge in Crimea has just been blown up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This part was disappointing.

Russia's Ministry of Transport said on Sunday that all freight and long-distance passenger trains were running according to schedule, and that ferries would help transport additional freight and passengers across the Kerch strait, the Wall Street Journal reported.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/09/russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-supply-lines

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This part was disappointing.

Russia's Ministry of Transport said on Sunday that all freight and long-distance passenger trains were running according to schedule, and that ferries would help transport additional freight and passengers across the Kerch strait, the Wall Street Journal reported.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/09/russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-supply-lines

Vatnyks gonna do their thing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This part was disappointing.

Russia's Ministry of Transport said on Sunday that all freight and long-distance passenger trains were running according to schedule, and that ferries would help transport additional freight and passengers across the Kerch strait, the Wall Street Journal reported.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/09/russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-supply-lines

If you click on the posting the photo is dated from 2016 and isn’t even the Kerch Strait Bridge (inaugurated May 2018).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This part was disappointing.

Russia's Ministry of Transport said on Sunday that all freight and long-distance passenger trains were running according to schedule, and that ferries would help transport additional freight and passengers across the Kerch strait, the Wall Street Journal reported.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/09/russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-supply-lines

Snow on the ground ….does not look like a bridge

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This part was disappointing.

Russia's Ministry of Transport said on Sunday that all freight and long-distance passenger trains were running according to schedule, and that ferries would help transport additional freight and passengers across the Kerch strait, the Wall Street Journal reported.
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/09/russia-crimea-kerch-bridge-supply-lines

Snow on the ground ….does not look like a bridge

Kerch weather tomorrow 60 and sunny.

[Anonymous]

Hint: it’s some random 2-lane highway not a bridge.

[Anonymous]

Forbes has estimated that missile strikes earlier today cost Russia somewhere between $400-700 million and further depleted sn already scant supply of high tech material.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Strangely I think it will not have as much effect as one would expect. Changes in the Russian military (which won’t affect the outcome too much) and further decrease in tourism (anyone with half a brain already knows not to go there).
But it won’t lead to using nukes or anything that drastic.
Also, doesn’t really matter who and how.

You're either cognitively challenged or a Russian propagandist who knows the impact of that single bridge to the Russian military (or both).

Russian troops stationed in Sevastopl and Simeropl will live or die (literally, not figuratively) based on whether that bridge is operational since it's one of the few rail transports available to Russian forces in Ukraine. Once that bridge is shut down for good, Russian military forces in Crimea will totally collapse, imho.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#/map/0

Russian troops near Kherson are having trouble keeping themselves supplied with ammunition, fuel, food as it is now. Most of it is being funneled through from Simeropl and Dzhankov, so there is zero chance of the Russian military logistics being able to reroute supplies through other locations. Sure, they could try using ships or planes, but we've seen how effective that's been in the past. They could also shift to trucks, but in general, a single train carries about 300 truckloads of cargo. The Russian military also lost too many supply trucks as it is, plus it burns up fuel to transport the extra distance, maintenance, etc.

"Russia's Energy Ministry said Crimea has enough fuel for 15 days."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/crimea-bridge-russia-war-in-ukraine-damaged-key-supply-route-putin-birthday/

"A Russian tourist association estimated that 50,000 tourists were in Crimea on vacation on Saturday."
"On Saturday, a Kremlin-backed official in Ukraine's Kherson region announced a partial evacuation of civilians from the southern province, one of four illegally annexed by Moscow last week. Kirill Stremousov told Russia's state-run RIA Novosti agency that young children and the elderly could be relocated because Kherson was getting "ready for a difficult period.""

Any panicked Russian civilian minority in Sevastopl or Kherson can still retreat back to Russia, just via road instead of the bridge - which will make it even more difficult to Russia to supply their troops in Ukraine.

My guess is that the Russian Army is frantically and actively suppressing any information about the bridge damage. Any Russian military forces not panicked by this new development, should be when they eventually get wind of this - especially with winter coming up.

Before you get even more excited at discovering how smart you are - you do realize it wasn’t huge damage and it was already apparent at the time of my post?
I was wrong though.
There are explosions damaging critical infrastructure right now all over Ukraine
I just didn’t want to face the fact that there will be escalation
I am now thinking that maybe the bridge affair was an FSB false flag thing? A pretext to bomb all the cities that weren’t bombed before?
I don’t know

DP, and mechanical engineer

No, we certainly DON’T know there wasn’t “huge damage”. In fact I’d say just the opposite. Two entire sections of roadbed were knocked off the bridge piles. That’s pretty darn huge in my book. Plus the degradation of concrete and rebar from the heat of the fire from the burning tanker cars on the railroad span. And that’s only what’s discernible in low-rez photos. I’d definitely suspect there’s shock-damage to other structure in the bridge as well.

To suggest this wasn’t anything BUT major damage is lunacy.

Thank you! It actually makes me feel better - at least Ukraine wasn’t bombed for nothing today, they managed to do damage as well, good for them
I wonder what the next steps will be

Unfortunately the Russian military was randomly lashing out at Ukrainian civilians since they're easy to hit. The use of S-300's (remember these are anti-aircraft missiles, some of which were originally intended for ballistic missle defense) to hit civilian targets shows just how desperate Russia has become.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O54czmYhXH4

However, the bridge isn't looking very active today? Note the cars are taking the ferry.

[Anonymous]

After seeing this, I have to agree with the poster that talked about the structural damage. It appears that the trains will have difficulty running

https://theconversation.com/crimean-bridge-blast-experts-assess-the-damage-192161

https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1579195890358980610

Note how curved and melted the steel is. I suspect the steel bar reinforcement within the concrete has been compromised. Russia might try to repair the track, but unless they competely replace that section, a train moving at high speed could easily derail due to bridge motion.

This means the countdown has started.

There should only be 12d of fuel left in Crimea.

Once the Russian front line soldiers realize this, the panic will set in.

[Anonymous]

Now I know why the Russian bloggers are trying to distract the threads on Russia. It is true panic over there over the loss of kerch bridge. By the time they repair it, it will probably be all over for their troops once they run out of fuel and ammunition.

" a viewer may have concluded that it was just an ordinary Monday morning in Moscow."
“Overall, the messages are pretty clear: that the war is still going in the right direction, on the whole,”
“Stop reading ideological opponents,” who are working to instill “panic” in Russian society
“with us, historically, this is how it is. Don’t get hysterical. Everything is in our hands.”
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-media-confronts-new-problem-reality-180231942.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Now I know why the Russian bloggers are trying to distract the threads on Russia. It is true panic over there over the loss of kerch bridge. By the time they repair it, it will probably be all over for their troops once they run out of fuel and ammunition.

" a viewer may have concluded that it was just an ordinary Monday morning in Moscow."
“Overall, the messages are pretty clear: that the war is still going in the right direction, on the whole,”
“Stop reading ideological opponents,” who are working to instill “panic” in Russian society
“with us, historically, this is how it is. Don’t get hysterical. Everything is in our hands.”
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-media-confronts-new-problem-reality-180231942.html

I’m still so impressed that Ukraine did it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Now I know why the Russian bloggers are trying to distract the threads on Russia. It is true panic over there over the loss of kerch bridge. By the time they repair it, it will probably be all over for their troops once they run out of fuel and ammunition.

" a viewer may have concluded that it was just an ordinary Monday morning in Moscow."
“Overall, the messages are pretty clear: that the war is still going in the right direction, on the whole,”
“Stop reading ideological opponents,” who are working to instill “panic” in Russian society
“with us, historically, this is how it is. Don’t get hysterical. Everything is in our hands.”
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-media-confronts-new-problem-reality-180231942.html

I’m still so impressed that Ukraine did it.

I think the jury is out on that one. Ukraine usually takes credit to boost morale, but this time they didn't. They've learned the #1 rule of propaganda - everything you say must be absolutely true (vs Russian propaganda where the only truth is what the Kremlin says is true).

What does seem to be the truth is that the Kremlin is running out of troops fast and if they lose their troops in Crimea because they ran out of fuel and ammo, I doubt they can replace them.

Take a close look at this photo. They must have cleared out the retirement home.

[Anonymous]

Russia is using expensive weapons it does not have any replacements for.

They are like the those gamblers you see in Vegas at 7am; you are up to get breakfast or go to the gym and they are on a bender losing their ass to the casino.

It sucks for Ukraine to be the dealer at the table taking the abuse from the losing player; but the view from the eye in the sky is not so bad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:After seeing this, I have to agree with the poster that talked about the structural damage. It appears that the trains will have difficulty running

https://theconversation.com/crimean-bridge-blast-experts-assess-the-damage-192161

https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1579195890358980610

Note how curved and melted the steel is. I suspect the steel bar reinforcement within the concrete has been compromised. Russia might try to repair the track, but unless they competely replace that section, a train moving at high speed could easily derail due to bridge motion.

This means the countdown has started.

There should only be 12d of fuel left in Crimea.

Once the Russian front line soldiers realize this, the panic will set in.

This bridge could collapse in a week or a month or there could be another attack. As it stands now it creates a bottle neck and a high priority target. There could be another attack at anytime…maybe when another fuel or munitions train is on the bridge.

[Anonymous]

This is another sign that the Russians have run out of tanks. The Russian Army would never commit these voluntarily for fear of the West retrieving their secrets. Once they're taken out, there's nothing on the battlefield in the Russian Army that could deal with an M1 tank, imho.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/10/russias-t-14-armata-tank-may-have-made-it-to-ukraine-after-all/

https://en.protothema.gr/russia-might-have-deployed-its-t-14-armata-tank-in-ukraine-sources-claim/