2028 Girls Lacrosse

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records. Next Level's actually better (at #67). If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages. This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years. It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs.

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data. If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #33. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
- 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #24. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
- Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)
- 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
- Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
- Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
- 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of #19. The math (rounded):
- BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 7th grade = #23; 6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
- Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
- 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19

Bro... That's pretty extensive analysis. Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things. Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s. IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.

Even if there were ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams right now (there are fewer than that), and all of them came back, that would average ~three players per each DMV team. Unless each is a Charlotte North prodigy none of us has heard about, they wouldn’t dramatically dent the 2.2X delta that exists when compared against the 26s, the 3X delta v the 27s, and the 3.8X delta v the 29s. The talent for the 28s is just off, and the stats seem to bear this out.

I’ve watched most of these MD players from the DMV. Don’t mean this to be at all derogatory but I do not see aby real difference in them and the top 3 Pride or top 2 Stars players.

Yes, but could you imagine if the top three from Pride and the top two from Stars joined forces for a sixes game? That would be interesting to watch

Sixes game against whom?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records. Next Level's actually better (at #67). If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages. This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years. It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs.

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data. If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #33. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
- 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #24. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
- Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)
- 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
- Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
- Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
- 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of #19. The math (rounded):
- BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 7th grade = #23; 6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
- Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
- 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19

Bro... That's pretty extensive analysis. Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things. Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s. IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.

Even if there were ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams right now (there are fewer than that), and all of them came back, that would average ~three players per each DMV team. Unless each is a Charlotte North prodigy none of us has heard about, they wouldn’t dramatically dent the 2.2X delta that exists when compared against the 26s, the 3X delta v the 27s, and the 3.8X delta v the 29s. The talent for the 28s is just off, and the stats seem to bear this out.

I’ve watched most of these MD players from the DMV. Don’t mean this to be at all derogatory but I do not see aby real difference in them and the top 3 Pride or top 2 Stars players.

This sounds right to me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records. Next Level's actually better (at #67). If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages. This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years. It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs.

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data. If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #33. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
- 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #24. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
- Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)
- 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
- Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
- Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
- 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of #19. The math (rounded):
- BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 7th grade = #23; 6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
- Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
- 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19

Bro... That's pretty extensive analysis. Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things. Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s. IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.

Even if there were ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams right now (there are fewer than that), and all of them came back, that would average ~three players per each DMV team. Unless each is a Charlotte North prodigy none of us has heard about, they wouldn’t dramatically dent the 2.2X delta that exists when compared against the 26s, the 3X delta v the 27s, and the 3.8X delta v the 29s. The talent for the 28s is just off, and the stats seem to bear this out.

I’ve watched most of these MD players from the DMV. Don’t mean this to be at all derogatory but I do not see aby real difference in them and the top 3 Pride or top 2 Stars players.

This sounds right to me.

Agree. All good players.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records. Next Level's actually better (at #67). If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages. This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years. It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs.

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data. If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #33. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
- 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #24. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
- Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)
- 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
- Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
- Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
- 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of #19. The math (rounded):
- BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 7th grade = #23; 6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
- Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
- 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19

Bro... That's pretty extensive analysis. Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things. Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s. IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.

Even if there were ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams right now (there are fewer than that), and all of them came back, that would average ~three players per each DMV team. Unless each is a Charlotte North prodigy none of us has heard about, they wouldn’t dramatically dent the 2.2X delta that exists when compared against the 26s, the 3X delta v the 27s, and the 3.8X delta v the 29s. The talent for the 28s is just off, and the stats seem to bear this out.

I’ve watched most of these MD players from the DMV. Don’t mean this to be at all derogatory but I do not see aby real difference in them and the top 3 Pride or top 2 Stars players.

This sounds right to me.

Which continues to prove the point that Capital will be better with the top 2 stars and 3 Pride plus the girls who left for Md.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records. Next Level's actually better (at #67). If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages. This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years. It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs.

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data. If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #33. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
- 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #24. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
- Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)
- 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
- Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
- Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
- 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of #19. The math (rounded):
- BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 7th grade = #23; 6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
- Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
- 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19

Bro... That's pretty extensive analysis. Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things. Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s. IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.

Even if there were ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams right now (there are fewer than that), and all of them came back, that would average ~three players per each DMV team. Unless each is a Charlotte North prodigy none of us has heard about, they wouldn’t dramatically dent the 2.2X delta that exists when compared against the 26s, the 3X delta v the 27s, and the 3.8X delta v the 29s. The talent for the 28s is just off, and the stats seem to bear this out.

I’ve watched most of these MD players from the DMV. Don’t mean this to be at all derogatory but I do not see aby real difference in them and the top 3 Pride or top 2 Stars players.

Yes, but could you imagine if the top three from Pride and the top two from Stars joined forces for a sixes game? That would be interesting to watch

Sixes game against whom?

Not the top Md teams who would also put their best 6 on the field.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records. Next Level's actually better (at #67). If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages. This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years. It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs.

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data. If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #33. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
- 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #24. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
- Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)
- 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
- Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
- Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
- 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of #19. The math (rounded):
- BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 7th grade = #23; 6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
- Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
- 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19

Bro... That's pretty extensive analysis. Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things. Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s. IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.

Even if there were ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams right now (there are fewer than that), and all of them came back, that would average ~three players per each DMV team. Unless each is a Charlotte North prodigy none of us has heard about, they wouldn’t dramatically dent the 2.2X delta that exists when compared against the 26s, the 3X delta v the 27s, and the 3.8X delta v the 29s. The talent for the 28s is just off, and the stats seem to bear this out.

I’ve watched most of these MD players from the DMV. Don’t mean this to be at all derogatory but I do not see aby real difference in them and the top 3 Pride or top 2 Stars players.

This sounds right to me.

Which continues to prove the point that Capital will be better with the top 2 stars and 3 Pride plus the girls who left for Md.

Agree but don’t think any MD players are coming back. Just my two cents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records. Next Level's actually better (at #67). If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages. This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years. It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs.

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data. If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #33. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
- 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #24. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
- Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)
- 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
- Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
- Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
- 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of #19. The math (rounded):
- BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 7th grade = #23; 6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
- Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
- 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19

Bro... That's pretty extensive analysis. Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things. Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s. IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.

Even if there were ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams right now (there are fewer than that), and all of them came back, that would average ~three players per each DMV team. Unless each is a Charlotte North prodigy none of us has heard about, they wouldn’t dramatically dent the 2.2X delta that exists when compared against the 26s, the 3X delta v the 27s, and the 3.8X delta v the 29s. The talent for the 28s is just off, and the stats seem to bear this out.

Ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams moving to BLC would instantly make them a good team. Also, BLC is not even close to being the third best 2028 DMV team. Your analysis is terribly flawed.

Except all ten 28 DMV players now on MD teams (again, there are far less than that) didn’t all come from BLC, and therefore wouldn’t all return to BLC. Your methodology could use some work there too.

BLC 28 is ranked #201 right now - three or four returning players would make them a better team sure, but not a great team. Likely not even a top 50 team. (There’s a reason those players left BLC for MD in the first place.)

But to your larger point, since we’re really only talking about the top talent, let’s compare the stats for the top two DMV teams in each age bracket. These numbers are accurate and telling:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 18% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

It still shows an undeniable talent drop at the 2028 age group.

[Anonymous]

Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

[Anonymous]

You are welcome.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Facts are facts. And no chance the handful of DMV players who went to MD account for the more than 3x (300%) national ranking drop the 2028s have against their two prior years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

Ok, I’m being serious here, so hear me out.

You live find abba making all this days. Now go back to every East they have these rankings and look at the average rankings these teams had when they were all in eighth grade and compare it to where the 28s are currently ranked and give us that data please

Not being a jerk, I am genuinely interested

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

You have the years wrong. In Virginia it is 09/10, but in Maryland the birth years should be 08/09

IYKYK