Gary Johnson/Libertarian party's support

[Anonymous]

If the support for Gary Johnson and Libertarian party's support declines because of the Aleppo faux pas, who would benefit more: Trump or Clinton?

Is there any reliable statistic as to who the Libertarian support draws support from?

[Anonymous]

Clinton. .... my guess?

[Anonymous]

Clinton benefits because more of Johnson's supporters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Clinton benefits because more of Johnson's supporters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

But you are assuming their fall back would be Clinton as opposed to just sitting out the election or holding their noses and voting for Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Clinton benefits because more of Johnson's supporters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

But you are assuming their fall back would be Clinton as opposed to just sitting out the election or holding their noses and voting for Trump.

I know a number of people like this and there is no way they will vote for Trump. They will either not vote at all, not vote for president, or vote for Hillary. All of which benefits Hillary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Clinton benefits because more of Johnson's supporters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

But you are assuming their fall back would be Clinton as opposed to just sitting out the election or holding their noses and voting for Trump.

I know a number of people like this and there is no way they will vote for Trump. They will either not vote at all, not vote for president, or vote for Hillary. All of which benefits Hillary.

Well, if they don't vote at all or don't vote for Hillary it is not going to help her.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Clinton benefits because more of Johnson's supporters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

But you are assuming their fall back would be Clinton as opposed to just sitting out the election or holding their noses and voting for Trump.

When you get in that polling place, you are by yourself. Clinton has been the conservative boogies woman for 30 years now. I don't see many republicans pulling the level for her. This will be a very low turn out election. It could go either way. The polling assumptions are based on the turn out of past presidential election years. The low turn out will make it more like a midterm election. This will make the polling unreliable. Look for a lot of polls to be wrong and many people to skip the election. Both canidates are around 60% in their disapproval numbers. Normal every day people just don't show up for 60% disapproval numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anyone who would lose respect/fail to support a candidate who slipped up on a significant policy topic likely would support the remaining candidate who has policy knowledge and proven international experience. That would be Hillary Clinton.

[Anonymous]

it's embarrassing but doesn't disqualify his candidacy. foreign policy matters very very little in presidential elex. matters beyond mexico, canada, europe and china, most just don't care.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Clinton benefits because more of Johnson's supporters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

But you are assuming their fall back would be Clinton as opposed to just sitting out the election or holding their noses and voting for Trump.

When you get in that polling place, you are by yourself. Clinton has been the conservative boogies woman for 30 years now. I don't see many republicans pulling the level for her. This will be a very low turn out election. It could go either way. The polling assumptions are based on the turn out of past presidential election years. The low turn out will make it more like a midterm election. This will make the polling unreliable. Look for a lot of polls to be wrong and many people to skip the election. Both canidates are around 60% in their disapproval numbers. Normal every day people just don't show up for 60% disapproval numbers.

You must have missed this 15-page thread. There are hundreds of prominent Republicans who are going to vote for Hillary. Some of them have endorsed her and are even campaigning for her.
http://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/573782.page

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:it's embarrassing but doesn't disqualify his candidacy. foreign policy matters very very little in presidential elex. matters beyond mexico, canada, europe and china, most just don't care.

I agree with this ...... most Americans don't even know policy intricacies. They want someone who appears to be confident and a leader.

Trump wins on that account - he is perceived as having more leadership qualities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If the support for Gary Johnson and Libertarian party's support declines because of the Aleppo faux pas, who would benefit more: Trump or Clinton?

Is there any reliable statistic as to who the Libertarian support draws support from?

There's no way it helps Trump. Those who are committed Libertarians aren't going to abandon Johnson over this, because they believe we shouldn't be there anyway, and who cares if he knows what Aleppo is if we're pulling out from there entirely anyway? For those for whom Johnson is a protest vote because they hate both candidates, they're not going to abandon them over this because, in their mind, this is no where near as bad as the awful things they believe Trump and Clinton have done/will do. The people who will care about this are people who are making a serious effort to critically evaluate the candidates and figure out who is most qualified and competent to lead, and believed Johnson to be both qualified and competent without all of the baggage and liability of Trump or Clinton. If this mistake is enough to make them question Johnson's competence, there's no way they're going to switch to the even more ignorant Trump. They'll hold their noses and vote for Clinton because at least she's well-educated about what's going on around the world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:it's embarrassing but doesn't disqualify his candidacy. foreign policy matters very very little in presidential elex. matters beyond mexico, canada, europe and china, most just don't care.

I am Hillary supporter and I saw the clip. While this sounds like good meme, I can see how he would have been confused. If I were his supporter, I would not care. Frankly, I am scared as hell with Trump's foreign policy knowledge with his "take the oil" plan. Are you kidding me; this I would not consider a big deal at all.

[Anonymous]

the ones who vote for Johnson will be the ones to blame if Trump wins the election. based on the polling differences over the past 2-3 weeks, the drop in HRC's numbers are countered by a commensurate rise in GJ's numbers, while Trump stays basically even.

so think about that long and hard - GJ's voters, you are actually enabling a Trump presidency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Clinton benefits because more of Johnson's supporters are Republicans who don't like Trump.

But you are assuming their fall back would be Clinton as opposed to just sitting out the election or holding their noses and voting for Trump.

When you get in that polling place, you are by yourself. Clinton has been the conservative boogies woman for 30 years now. I don't see many republicans pulling the level for her. This will be a very low turn out election. It could go either way. The polling assumptions are based on the turn out of past presidential election years. The low turn out will make it more like a midterm election. This will make the polling unreliable. Look for a lot of polls to be wrong and many people to skip the election. Both canidates are around 60% in their disapproval numbers. Normal every day people just don't show up for 60% disapproval numbers.

You must have missed this 15-page thread. There are hundreds of prominent Republicans who are going to vote for Hillary. Some of them have endorsed her and are even campaigning for her.
http://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/573782.page

You are crazy if you think any of the base of the Republican Party will vote for Hillary. Seriously there are a few Washington insiders who will, but they are not really republicans, more like courtiers seeking advantage. They really do not care who wins as long as they make money. There is more money to be made with Clinton vs Trump. There is a huge difference between what passed as the party leadership and the rank and file. Guess what, the rank and file out numbers the courtiers by tens of thousands. You really need to stop hoping and wishing the republicans are going to turn their back on Trump. They voted for him in the primaries, they will vote for him in the general. The only things that matters are turnout and independents in swing states...not what old man George Will writes about in a paper no one reads.