I think the bubble is popping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm sure the bubble is going to pop any minute now lol

https://www.redfin.com/county/1324/MD/Montgomery-County/housing-market

I know for me, I started looking at Montgomery because NoVa EXPLODED and I can’t afford to live here anymore. I bet there are a lot of people like me making compromises.

Good idea because you can get some value bargains in Bethesda and nearby. Market is soft compared to NoVA

Income tax rate in moco sucks, and no jobs in the county is the reason.

Yes and No. In both MD and VA, the top state tax rate is 5.75%. In MD, you pay an additional ~3.2% as county level tax.

So, let's take the typical case of a dual income family in the DMV with an HHI of $200K. This is essentially two feds, or similar private sector jobs, and is probably more than 50% of the DMV.

I'm using rough numbers here, and everybody's case will be different, so keep that mind.

- Gross Income $200K
- Taxable income (for Federal and State and Local), let's say $150K.

The difference between MD and VA tax burden in this case will be $4,800. But...VA has the car tax and a family of two earners will most likely have at least two cars. Even at the low end, the car tax may be $400-500 per car per year. Now, we're down to a difference of ~$3800. Factor in more tolls in VA, tax on groceries (not in MD), trash pickup charges etc and the difference shrinks even more.

My point is that, YES, the tax burden in MD is higher, but even at an HHI of $200K, it's not THAT much more. Now, if you were making $1M/yr...that's a different story altogether (although, try owning a Lamborghini in VA....). Even at an HHI of $500K we're talking less than $10K per year. If an equivalent house is $200K cheaper on the MD side, there goes the $10K difference.

With WFH becoming even more prevalent, commuting is less of a factor in deciding where to live.

DP. Grew up in MD and now live in VA. 1) $400 still seems high for car tax. We pay less than $100 per year (but we do have only one car) 2) over time the tax differences add up. 3) VA has one of the better 529s and way more in-state college options. I’ve tried to work the numbers a lot of different ways because I prefer MD but VA is a much better value.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And then there's this idiot...the price history speaks for itself. A MASSIVE $1 , you read that right, ONE DOLLAR drop every few days. If that doesn't show you a bubble...and the coming collapse...

You think one $2.5 million + house doing stupid price reductions means there's a bubble popping? This house was initially listed in March, at the height of the so-called bubble, and if they couldn't sell it then, it's not the market that's the problem, it's the house (or the seller not pricing correctly).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am not sure what the local housing market is going to do but many adjacent markets are dropping. I am in the house for a vacation property and am looking at a number of areas in MD and up the northeastern corridor. Steady reductions and staying on the market longer in many areas. Not at prepandemic levels yet.

Frederick is even hotter than MoCo lol. https://www.redfin.com/city/7735/MD/Frederick/housing-market

Frederick is more of a blue collar town and prices have been pretty cheap. GF bought a TH 3 years ago for $175K and selling it now for $310K

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And then there's this idiot...the price history speaks for itself. A MASSIVE $1 , you read that right, ONE DOLLAR drop every few days. If that doesn't show you a bubble...and the coming collapse...



https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/2424-N-Edgewood-St-22207/home/11279089

their agent must hate them

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And then there's this idiot...the price history speaks for itself. A MASSIVE $1 , you read that right, ONE DOLLAR drop every few days. If that doesn't show you a bubble...and the coming collapse...



https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/2424-N-Edgewood-St-22207/home/11279089

their agent must hate them

This just shows an obnoxious seller. How is this indicative of a bubble?

The guy is obviously trying to take advantage of the systems that send alerts for "price drop" w/o really droppingthe price

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And then there's this idiot...the price history speaks for itself. A MASSIVE $1 , you read that right, ONE DOLLAR drop every few days. If that doesn't show you a bubble...and the coming collapse...



https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/2424-N-Edgewood-St-22207/home/11279089

their agent must hate them

The property listed originally
2424 N Edgewood St, ARLINGTON, Colonial, Georgian Property
MLS® #, VAAR178384. Price, $2,700,000. Bedrooms, 5. Bathrooms, 5.00. Full Baths, 4. Half Baths, 2. Square Footage, 6,073. Acres, 0.41. Year Built, 2006.

It sold in 2018 GREENSTAR CONSULTING GROUP LLC 8/28/2018 $2,568,000

The owners are taking a bath on this. They drop a dollar a day to keep the alerts. No sale in six months on any particular property does not reflect a bubble bursting, just stupid, greedy people- including the agent and broker.

[Anonymous]

4-5 months ago there was a bidding war for a house on Mississippi in Silver Spring/Takoma, that ultimately went over 800k. Don’t get me wrong, incredible cute house in a wonderful neighborhood but had some issues including a fairly small basement living area, v. small kitchen, etc. House on same block - very similar layout, slightly less charm but far more useable basement space - just lowered their price by 50k to low 700s after last weekend. I don’t know enough about the market to say what is a bubble or not but it sure is a different world than it was when we were pulling our hair out and selling our souls for a house a few months ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:4-5 months ago there was a bidding war for a house on Mississippi in Silver Spring/Takoma, that ultimately went over 800k. Don’t get me wrong, incredible cute house in a wonderful neighborhood but had some issues including a fairly small basement living area, v. small kitchen, etc. House on same block - very similar layout, slightly less charm but far more useable basement space - just lowered their price by 50k to low 700s after last weekend. I don’t know enough about the market to say what is a bubble or not but it sure is a different world than it was when we were pulling our hair out and selling our souls for a house a few months ago.

The houses you are referencing are not as similar as you make them out to be, if I found the right ones, the one listed currently for $750 has a weird deck and super slopped backyard from the pics. That would be a deal breaker for me. Also the kitchen looks very cramped compared to the comp you are referencing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:4-5 months ago there was a bidding war for a house on Mississippi in Silver Spring/Takoma, that ultimately went over 800k. Don’t get me wrong, incredible cute house in a wonderful neighborhood but had some issues including a fairly small basement living area, v. small kitchen, etc. House on same block - very similar layout, slightly less charm but far more useable basement space - just lowered their price by 50k to low 700s after last weekend. I don’t know enough about the market to say what is a bubble or not but it sure is a different world than it was when we were pulling our hair out and selling our souls for a house a few months ago.

The houses you are referencing are not as similar as you make them out to be, if I found the right ones, the one listed currently for $750 has a weird deck and super slopped backyard from the pics. That would be a deal breaker for me. Also the kitchen looks very cramped compared to the comp you are referencing.

I looked at these two houses again and honestly it's just ridiculous that the seller of the house currently on the market expected to get $800k. It's smaller, doesn't have a garage and the lot looks like a nightmare. PP, wtf, you cannot possibly be posting in good faith.


https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/420-Mississippi-Ave-20910/home/10970819
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/426-Mississippi-Ave-20910/home/10972094

[Anonymous]

Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/lumber-prices-1.6177016

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/lumber-prices-1.6177016

This article is about lumber prices. Sounds like good news for builders and owners renovating their homes. May have some effect on home prices but it's certainly not going to cause a "crash" right now and it's unlikely it will cause builders to overbuild like they did pre 2008.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/lumber-prices-1.6177016

This article is about lumber prices. Sounds like good news for builders and owners renovating their homes. May have some effect on home prices but it's certainly not going to cause a "crash" right now and it's unlikely it will cause builders to overbuild like they did pre 2008.

It’s from Canada. Jesus. People are really grasping at straws.

Looking at my home appreciation in the past month alone…. Buyers are screwed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/lumber-prices-1.6177016

This article is about lumber prices. Sounds like good news for builders and owners renovating their homes. May have some effect on home prices but it's certainly not going to cause a "crash" right now and it's unlikely it will cause builders to overbuild like they did pre 2008.

It’s from Canada. Jesus. People are really grasping at straws.

Looking at my home appreciation in the past month alone…. Buyers are screwed.

Yeah isn’t some tariff thing with Canada a big part of the problem?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/lumber-prices-1.6177016

This article is about lumber prices. Sounds like good news for builders and owners renovating their homes. May have some effect on home prices but it's certainly not going to cause a "crash" right now and it's unlikely it will cause builders to overbuild like they did pre 2008.

It’s from Canada. Jesus. People are really grasping at straws.

Looking at my home appreciation in the past month alone…. Buyers are screwed.

By that logic...So are you. "Paper gains" are meaningless unless someone is willing to actually pay the price. You'll just keep paying property taxes and HOI on inflated property values.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"Paper gains" are meaningless unless someone is willing to actually pay the price.

I don't think you understand what paper gains are, and what determines market value.