I think the bubble is popping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It has slowed that’s a fact. BUT I highly doubt enough to make it worth it to pay rent two or three years and then buy. Plus that your mortgage goes on another 2-3 years.

However, it does mean a little less bidding wars and a bit more inventory. No need to buy that house on top of belt way.

+1. It's been humorous reading all the bitter Nostradamuses on here for the last 10 years. The bubble was going to burst any minute, so they were super astute to patiently remain in their apartment or sh*tshack. lol

It has has a few slight pauses. I bought spring 2017 and crazy but when rates rose in 2018 and early 2019 it did pause a smidgeon but only in sense more inventory less bidding wars. Then it really heated up 2020. But meanwhile I knocked almost 4.5 years off my mortgage.

Although I have no clue how my kids are all buying homes at 2 million each in 10-15 years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I haven't read everything, but here's a sign that the bubble has popped (or maybe it's just fall).

In our community, in the spring and early summer, houses were selling before even going on the market, or within 1-2 days. No one even had an open house and things were going for 4-5% above list. Meanwhile a house the same model and two doors down from one that sold in June went on the market in late July and is still on the market. They've already lowered their price twice. I haven't been inside, but the pictures make it look pretty similar to others that sold in the spring/early summer.

This is not necessarily an indicator of a bubble. If you live in an area that is primarily valued for the schools, then this is a cyclical issue. In that case, everyone wants to move there with the school cycle and not outside of the school cycle. These are people who don't want to upend their kids during the school year, but want their children to be in the right school district/pyramid/school at the right time, e.g. with the school year. So they start watching the market in February looking to time the cycle so that they purchase sometime in the March-May time frame, to give themselves time to close, then time to move and time to settle in before the school year. They'll spend more money to buy a house on the cycle. But, they'll wait out the off-cycle period to avoid moving their kids in the middle of the school year. Outside the school year cycle, the houses that are "perfect", will still sell quickly, but the ones that have any red flags, will sit and linger and will need price reductions to sell. Or they could delist and try to relist on the cycle when they have a better chance of a buyer or more (bidding war).

If the area has more attraction than just the schools, then interest will remain high and will be less affected by the school cycle.

[Anonymous]

People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It has slowed that’s a fact. BUT I highly doubt enough to make it worth it to pay rent two or three years and then buy. Plus that your mortgage goes on another 2-3 years.

However, it does mean a little less bidding wars and a bit more inventory. No need to buy that house on top of belt way.

+1. It's been humorous reading all the bitter Nostradamuses on here for the last 10 years. The bubble was going to burst any minute, so they were super astute to patiently remain in their apartment or sh*tshack. lol

I mean have you seen what sh*shacks are going for these days? They’ve probably had the most price growth than any other housing in the area. My parents sold their house in the area that has a literal highway behind their backyard for an obscene profit this spring. I agree with you on buying being better than renting but I think trade up buyers should be very careful not to max out their budgets when inflation can seriously erode their wages.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't read everything, but here's a sign that the bubble has popped (or maybe it's just fall).

In our community, in the spring and early summer, houses were selling before even going on the market, or within 1-2 days. No one even had an open house and things were going for 4-5% above list. Meanwhile a house the same model and two doors down from one that sold in June went on the market in late July and is still on the market. They've already lowered their price twice. I haven't been inside, but the pictures make it look pretty similar to others that sold in the spring/early summer.

This is not necessarily an indicator of a bubble. If you live in an area that is primarily valued for the schools, then this is a cyclical issue. In that case, everyone wants to move there with the school cycle and not outside of the school cycle. These are people who don't want to upend their kids during the school year, but want their children to be in the right school district/pyramid/school at the right time, e.g. with the school year. So they start watching the market in February looking to time the cycle so that they purchase sometime in the March-May time frame, to give themselves time to close, then time to move and time to settle in before the school year. They'll spend more money to buy a house on the cycle. But, they'll wait out the off-cycle period to avoid moving their kids in the middle of the school year. Outside the school year cycle, the houses that are "perfect", will still sell quickly, but the ones that have any red flags, will sit and linger and will need price reductions to sell. Or they could delist and try to relist on the cycle when they have a better chance of a buyer or more (bidding war).

If the area has more attraction than just the schools, then interest will remain high and will be less affected by the school cycle.

DP. I always monitor my North Arlington neighborhood and while you are right that schools make things cyclical sales are down 9% relative to this month last year so the cyclical thing doesn’t fully explain it.

[Anonymous]

If you think DMV is expensive for good schools and short commute. Long Island makes it look cheap. My sister just sold her house in Manhasset, NY and looks what you get in the 1.4-1.5 million range by this recent sale. She cashed out and moved to Delaware. She retired last spring as a school teacher
https://www.redfin.com/NY/Manhasset/33-Chase-Rd-11030/home/20570212

[Anonymous]

I think Covid put Amazon rise in prices on temporary hold. Then we had exceptionally low interest rates. Prices in DC just went up up up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.

Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It has slowed that’s a fact. BUT I highly doubt enough to make it worth it to pay rent two or three years and then buy. Plus that your mortgage goes on another 2-3 years.

However, it does mean a little less bidding wars and a bit more inventory. No need to buy that house on top of belt way.

+1. It's been humorous reading all the bitter Nostradamuses on here for the last 10 years. The bubble was going to burst any minute, so they were super astute to patiently remain in their apartment or sh*tshack. lol

It has has a few slight pauses. I bought spring 2017 and crazy but when rates rose in 2018 and early 2019 it did pause a smidgeon but only in sense more inventory less bidding wars. Then it really heated up 2020. But meanwhile I knocked almost 4.5 years off my mortgage.

Although I have no clue how my kids are all buying homes at 2 million each in 10-15 years

Your kids probably won’t. They’ll probably be downwardly mobile. I’m a millennial and a big chunk of my social circle are majorly downwardly mobile especially when measured against QOL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.

Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.

Yes, IF our home value drops by 15% AND we have to or want to move sooner than expected AND a similar home becomes available for rent at the right price, then sure, you could make the argument we'd have been better off financially if we had remained renters. But there are exactly zero houses for rent right now in the school district we want for our DD, and we are so, so much happier in our house versus our cramped apartment. Like anything, there is uncertainty. Like, if the stock market crashes by 50% then yeah, I'd have been better off putting more money in bonds, but if I had been investing in bonds only for the past ten years I'd have lost out on a lot of gains. At some point you have to take a risk. Buying a house I love at a price I can afford is a risk I feel extremely comfortable having taken. You do you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.

Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.

Yes, IF our home value drops by 15% AND we have to or want to move sooner than expected AND a similar home becomes available for rent at the right price, then sure, you could make the argument we'd have been better off financially if we had remained renters. But there are exactly zero houses for rent right now in the school district we want for our DD, and we are so, so much happier in our house versus our cramped apartment. Like anything, there is uncertainty. Like, if the stock market crashes by 50% then yeah, I'd have been better off putting more money in bonds, but if I had been investing in bonds only for the past ten years I'd have lost out on a lot of gains. At some point you have to take a risk. Buying a house I love at a price I can afford is a risk I feel extremely comfortable having taken. You do you.

Nothing against buying a house you can afford. What I think many people did in the second half of 2020 and early part of this year is overpaying by a significant amount for their houses. They could have waited and not paid insane prices. If prices stay flat, they would be losing money if interest payments, maintenance, property taxes, insurance, etc are higher than rents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.

Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.

Yes, IF our home value drops by 15% AND we have to or want to move sooner than expected AND a similar home becomes available for rent at the right price, then sure, you could make the argument we'd have been better off financially if we had remained renters. But there are exactly zero houses for rent right now in the school district we want for our DD, and we are so, so much happier in our house versus our cramped apartment. Like anything, there is uncertainty. Like, if the stock market crashes by 50% then yeah, I'd have been better off putting more money in bonds, but if I had been investing in bonds only for the past ten years I'd have lost out on a lot of gains. At some point you have to take a risk. Buying a house I love at a price I can afford is a risk I feel extremely comfortable having taken. You do you.

Nothing against buying a house you can afford. What I think many people did in the second half of 2020 and early part of this year is overpaying by a significant amount for their houses. They could have waited and not paid insane prices. If prices stay flat, they would be losing money if interest payments, maintenance, property taxes, insurance, etc are higher than rents.

Waited how long? I mean I think there are some people that really made dumb choices out of FOMO, but most just paid market prices and I have not seen those go down. I don't see them going down, I don't even see them staying completely flat.

[Anonymous]

Definitely slower now. Some of it is due to the seasonality but the main reason is because people stopped the panic buying. I don’t see a crazy bidding war anymore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.

Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.

Yes, IF our home value drops by 15% AND we have to or want to move sooner than expected AND a similar home becomes available for rent at the right price, then sure, you could make the argument we'd have been better off financially if we had remained renters. But there are exactly zero houses for rent right now in the school district we want for our DD, and we are so, so much happier in our house versus our cramped apartment. Like anything, there is uncertainty. Like, if the stock market crashes by 50% then yeah, I'd have been better off putting more money in bonds, but if I had been investing in bonds only for the past ten years I'd have lost out on a lot of gains. At some point you have to take a risk. Buying a house I love at a price I can afford is a risk I feel extremely comfortable having taken. You do you.

Nothing against buying a house you can afford. What I think many people did in the second half of 2020 and early part of this year is overpaying by a significant amount for their houses. They could have waited and not paid insane prices. If prices stay flat, they would be losing money if interest payments, maintenance, property taxes, insurance, etc are higher than rents.

Waited how long? I mean I think there are some people that really made dumb choices out of FOMO, but most just paid market prices and I have not seen those go down. I don't see them going down, I don't even see them staying completely flat.

DP. Plenty of data that homes have been sitting longer with more price reductions. Prices down relative to this time last year as well. The market isn’t going to implode but c’mon it obviously wasn’t a good idea to purchase a home at the same time everyone is fleeing condos and apartments because of covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.

Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.

Yes, IF our home value drops by 15% AND we have to or want to move sooner than expected AND a similar home becomes available for rent at the right price, then sure, you could make the argument we'd have been better off financially if we had remained renters. But there are exactly zero houses for rent right now in the school district we want for our DD, and we are so, so much happier in our house versus our cramped apartment. Like anything, there is uncertainty. Like, if the stock market crashes by 50% then yeah, I'd have been better off putting more money in bonds, but if I had been investing in bonds only for the past ten years I'd have lost out on a lot of gains. At some point you have to take a risk. Buying a house I love at a price I can afford is a risk I feel extremely comfortable having taken. You do you.

Nothing against buying a house you can afford. What I think many people did in the second half of 2020 and early part of this year is overpaying by a significant amount for their houses. They could have waited and not paid insane prices. If prices stay flat, they would be losing money if interest payments, maintenance, property taxes, insurance, etc are higher than rents.

Waited how long? I mean I think there are some people that really made dumb choices out of FOMO, but most just paid market prices and I have not seen those go down. I don't see them going down, I don't even see them staying completely flat.

DP. Plenty of data that homes have been sitting longer with more price reductions. Prices down relative to this time last year as well. The market isn’t going to implode but c’mon it obviously wasn’t a good idea to purchase a home at the same time everyone is fleeing condos and apartments because of covid.

Where are you getting that from?

All the price reductions I'm seeing are delusional people (like the one who decided to price their center unit townhouse on the main road the same as a end unit in the interior of the community that sold a couple of months ago). I'm seeing a lot of recent (as in last 7 days) sales at prices that are $50-$100k higher than what similar houses sold last year.