Jefferson Academy Kool-Aid

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:+1. The Hill is in dire need of a new forum for parents to provide input on how to address the brewing neighborhood middle school crisis. The simple fact is that many families with kids currently in Hill DCPS elementary schools are going to wind up moving to the burbs if nothing changes. Brent, Maury and SWS parents have already lost access to Stuart Hobson short spectacular lottery luck, and many Cluster and Ludlow-Taylor parents won't use the school going forward. Jefferson is going to be a non-starter for families already at Brent, Tyler SI and Van Ness, other than perhaps a few die hards.

Few Hill families can afford private school from 6th grade up, and there aren't nearly enough spots in independent middle schools within easy reach of the Hill even for those who can. I don't like how the Brent PTA middle school committee is lobbying hard to gin up a massive investment in Jefferson without soliciting input from the broader school community first, to determine whether or not this is what most parents want. If I had a chance to respond to a survey on MS development options, or to vote in a PTA sponsored referendum on MS, I'd vote no on the Jefferson plan, with many others. This is the inconvenient truth school leaders must face at some point. The democratic process hasn't been subverted here; there has been no democratic process to avoiding the messiness of one. As a result, you're going to see a backlash over time, as the optimists crank up their PR machine to push the magical-thinking in Tues News, Brent neighbors, at PTA meetings etc.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. You can refer to families IB for Cluster/LT who eschew IB for alternatives, but the families who remain at Watkins and LT mostly comprise the feeders to SH. Watkins, LT, and JO Wilson offer very few lottery 5th grade seats and SH offers very few, all of which speaks to demand for SH. There may be OOB students in that mix but it's trending more towards IB in lower grades with current demographic shifts and the numbers of younger ES students in both DC and within those boundaries.

Some of SH IB families opt for ES charters and some leave for MS charters but that's no easier for SH IB students than anyone else.

Most of the high SES/white/in-boundary parents currently at Ludlow, Peabody/Watkins and JO Wilson in the lower grades are unlikely to stay the course for the upper grades, let alone chose SH. Even Brent and Maury, schools at least five years ahead of Ludlow in their development trajectories still lose many upper grades families to the burbs and privates. You'll see a slow steady uptick in the percentages of white and high SES families at SH in the next ten years, not a rush on a school without above grade-level offerings, particularly for math. SH is a mediocre school in an increasingly nice facility, no more. If SH is at 1/3 white ten years from now in a catchment area that's close to 80% white, I'll be surprised.

You speak anecdotally but the data paints a very different picture. Most schools have some attrition. There has been less scarcity of alternatives in the past 5 years in DC than the next 5 years will have. You just have to look at the numbers of rising 5th graders and the greater numbers behind them to see this trend. DCPS sees it, which is why they're betting more families will try to make the currently weak options better because they won't have a ton of alternatives for public school short of moving, which is a big expensive step in its own right.

Most of they suburbs worth moving to are just as expensive as DC and families committed to city living aren't a given to decamp. Families I know on the Hill would just as soon live in Fairfax as NW and don't really like either -- they'd already be there if they did.

SH already offers more honor courses than any DCPS MS other than Deal and Hardy. I don't care if SH is 1% white. It's not a factor. 1/3 white would be comparable to where Deal was about 3-4 years ago if you like perspective.

The most interesting picture that the data paints is that the number of young children in upper NW is projected to shrink. Young families with young children are priced out, older families with teenagers aren't moving, because they're using the MS & HS. The fastest growing wards in terms of population of young children are EOTR (as always) and Wards 4 & 5 in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Those Ward 3 ESs will begin to have empty spaces for OOB students. Again - residents aren't moving, but they're too old to have babies. Once again, Ward 3 will become an escape hatch for low-performing DCPS schools EOTP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:+1. The Hill is in dire need of a new forum for parents to provide input on how to address the brewing neighborhood middle school crisis. The simple fact is that many families with kids currently in Hill DCPS elementary schools are going to wind up moving to the burbs if nothing changes. Brent, Maury and SWS parents have already lost access to Stuart Hobson short spectacular lottery luck, and many Cluster and Ludlow-Taylor parents won't use the school going forward. Jefferson is going to be a non-starter for families already at Brent, Tyler SI and Van Ness, other than perhaps a few die hards.

Few Hill families can afford private school from 6th grade up, and there aren't nearly enough spots in independent middle schools within easy reach of the Hill even for those who can. I don't like how the Brent PTA middle school committee is lobbying hard to gin up a massive investment in Jefferson without soliciting input from the broader school community first, to determine whether or not this is what most parents want. If I had a chance to respond to a survey on MS development options, or to vote in a PTA sponsored referendum on MS, I'd vote no on the Jefferson plan, with many others. This is the inconvenient truth school leaders must face at some point. The democratic process hasn't been subverted here; there has been no democratic process to avoiding the messiness of one. As a result, you're going to see a backlash over time, as the optimists crank up their PR machine to push the magical-thinking in Tues News, Brent neighbors, at PTA meetings etc.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. You can refer to families IB for Cluster/LT who eschew IB for alternatives, but the families who remain at Watkins and LT mostly comprise the feeders to SH. Watkins, LT, and JO Wilson offer very few lottery 5th grade seats and SH offers very few, all of which speaks to demand for SH. There may be OOB students in that mix but it's trending more towards IB in lower grades with current demographic shifts and the numbers of younger ES students in both DC and within those boundaries.

Some of SH IB families opt for ES charters and some leave for MS charters but that's no easier for SH IB students than anyone else.

Most of the high SES/white/in-boundary parents currently at Ludlow, Peabody/Watkins and JO Wilson in the lower grades are unlikely to stay the course for the upper grades, let alone chose SH. Even Brent and Maury, schools at least five years ahead of Ludlow in their development trajectories still lose many upper grades families to the burbs and privates. You'll see a slow steady uptick in the percentages of white and high SES families at SH in the next ten years, not a rush on a school without above grade-level offerings, particularly for math. SH is a mediocre school in an increasingly nice facility, no more. If SH is at 1/3 white ten years from now in a catchment area that's close to 80% white, I'll be surprised.

You speak anecdotally but the data paints a very different picture. Most schools have some attrition. There has been less scarcity of alternatives in the past 5 years in DC than the next 5 years will have. You just have to look at the numbers of rising 5th graders and the greater numbers behind them to see this trend. DCPS sees it, which is why they're betting more families will try to make the currently weak options better because they won't have a ton of alternatives for public school short of moving, which is a big expensive step in its own right.

Most of they suburbs worth moving to are just as expensive as DC and families committed to city living aren't a given to decamp. Families I know on the Hill would just as soon live in Fairfax as NW and don't really like either -- they'd already be there if they did.

SH already offers more honor courses than any DCPS MS other than Deal and Hardy. I don't care if SH is 1% white. It's not a factor. 1/3 white would be comparable to where Deal was about 3-4 years ago if you like perspective.

The most interesting picture that the data paints is that the number of young children in upper NW is projected to shrink. Young families with young children are priced out, older families with teenagers aren't moving, because they're using the MS & HS. The fastest growing wards in terms of population of young children are EOTR (as always) and Wards 4 & 5 in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Those Ward 3 ESs will begin to have empty spaces for OOB students. Again - residents aren't moving, but they're too old to have babies. Once again, Ward 3 will become an escape hatch for low-performing DCPS schools EOTP.

If you've got 5 years to wait until PK3, this may be the case. However, I know plenty of young families who can afford NW at the moment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Stop it with praising the SH honors classes -- they aren't on par with Deal's and they are basically grade-level. This is not enough to attract parents of high performing students.

They serve the students enrolled. If more students enrolled they would start to look more like other schools with families committed to public education in neighborhood schools.

There's a wide misconception about overall aptitude levels. Teachers teach to level of any course and do not dumb down the curriculum to serve under achieving students. The school, including but not limited to classroom teachers, may offer help or remediation but the course is the course. Even in struggling schools a 6th grader will be taught at 6th grade level, not the median level of enrolled students' achievement level.

If students are offered Algebra I it doesn't make a big difference if the rest of the class is proficient or worse. I'd argue behavioral issues have a greater impact than achievement levels.. It's a different story if your child is ready for Algebra II or more advanced and they're stuck in I due to lack of alternatives. There are very few public MS in DC which will offer highly accelerated course options (BASIS and?). Deal's advanced options aren't THAT advanced either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:+1. The Hill is in dire need of a new forum for parents to provide input on how to address the brewing neighborhood middle school crisis. The simple fact is that many families with kids currently in Hill DCPS elementary schools are going to wind up moving to the burbs if nothing changes. Brent, Maury and SWS parents have already lost access to Stuart Hobson short spectacular lottery luck, and many Cluster and Ludlow-Taylor parents won't use the school going forward. Jefferson is going to be a non-starter for families already at Brent, Tyler SI and Van Ness, other than perhaps a few die hards.

Few Hill families can afford private school from 6th grade up, and there aren't nearly enough spots in independent middle schools within easy reach of the Hill even for those who can. I don't like how the Brent PTA middle school committee is lobbying hard to gin up a massive investment in Jefferson without soliciting input from the broader school community first, to determine whether or not this is what most parents want. If I had a chance to respond to a survey on MS development options, or to vote in a PTA sponsored referendum on MS, I'd vote no on the Jefferson plan, with many others. This is the inconvenient truth school leaders must face at some point. The democratic process hasn't been subverted here; there has been no democratic process to avoiding the messiness of one. As a result, you're going to see a backlash over time, as the optimists crank up their PR machine to push the magical-thinking in Tues News, Brent neighbors, at PTA meetings etc.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. You can refer to families IB for Cluster/LT who eschew IB for alternatives, but the families who remain at Watkins and LT mostly comprise the feeders to SH. Watkins, LT, and JO Wilson offer very few lottery 5th grade seats and SH offers very few, all of which speaks to demand for SH. There may be OOB students in that mix but it's trending more towards IB in lower grades with current demographic shifts and the numbers of younger ES students in both DC and within those boundaries.

Some of SH IB families opt for ES charters and some leave for MS charters but that's no easier for SH IB students than anyone else.

Most of the high SES/white/in-boundary parents currently at Ludlow, Peabody/Watkins and JO Wilson in the lower grades are unlikely to stay the course for the upper grades, let alone chose SH. Even Brent and Maury, schools at least five years ahead of Ludlow in their development trajectories still lose many upper grades families to the burbs and privates. You'll see a slow steady uptick in the percentages of white and high SES families at SH in the next ten years, not a rush on a school without above grade-level offerings, particularly for math. SH is a mediocre school in an increasingly nice facility, no more. If SH is at 1/3 white ten years from now in a catchment area that's close to 80% white, I'll be surprised.

You speak anecdotally but the data paints a very different picture. Most schools have some attrition. There has been less scarcity of alternatives in the past 5 years in DC than the next 5 years will have. You just have to look at the numbers of rising 5th graders and the greater numbers behind them to see this trend. DCPS sees it, which is why they're betting more families will try to make the currently weak options better because they won't have a ton of alternatives for public school short of moving, which is a big expensive step in its own right.

Most of they suburbs worth moving to are just as expensive as DC and families committed to city living aren't a given to decamp. Families I know on the Hill would just as soon live in Fairfax as NW and don't really like either -- they'd already be there if they did.

SH already offers more honor courses than any DCPS MS other than Deal and Hardy. I don't care if SH is 1% white. It's not a factor. 1/3 white would be comparable to where Deal was about 3-4 years ago if you like perspective.

The most interesting picture that the data paints is that the number of young children in upper NW is projected to shrink. Young families with young children are priced out, older families with teenagers aren't moving, because they're using the MS & HS. The fastest growing wards in terms of population of young children are EOTR (as always) and Wards 4 & 5 in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Those Ward 3 ESs will begin to have empty spaces for OOB students. Again - residents aren't moving, but they're too old to have babies. Once again, Ward 3 will become an escape hatch for low-performing DCPS schools EOTP.

If you've got 5 years to wait until PK3, this may be the case. However, I know plenty of young families who can afford NW at the moment.

So true -- it's tough buying in upper NW with low inventory and widespread NIMBYism as a rule for new development. Being able to afford and willing to afford/move are two very different things. I can easily afford to move too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:+1. The Hill is in dire need of a new forum for parents to provide input on how to address the brewing neighborhood middle school crisis. The simple fact is that many families with kids currently in Hill DCPS elementary schools are going to wind up moving to the burbs if nothing changes. Brent, Maury and SWS parents have already lost access to Stuart Hobson short spectacular lottery luck, and many Cluster and Ludlow-Taylor parents won't use the school going forward. Jefferson is going to be a non-starter for families already at Brent, Tyler SI and Van Ness, other than perhaps a few die hards.

Few Hill families can afford private school from 6th grade up, and there aren't nearly enough spots in independent middle schools within easy reach of the Hill even for those who can. I don't like how the Brent PTA middle school committee is lobbying hard to gin up a massive investment in Jefferson without soliciting input from the broader school community first, to determine whether or not this is what most parents want. If I had a chance to respond to a survey on MS development options, or to vote in a PTA sponsored referendum on MS, I'd vote no on the Jefferson plan, with many others. This is the inconvenient truth school leaders must face at some point. The democratic process hasn't been subverted here; there has been no democratic process to avoiding the messiness of one. As a result, you're going to see a backlash over time, as the optimists crank up their PR machine to push the magical-thinking in Tues News, Brent neighbors, at PTA meetings etc.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. You can refer to families IB for Cluster/LT who eschew IB for alternatives, but the families who remain at Watkins and LT mostly comprise the feeders to SH. Watkins, LT, and JO Wilson offer very few lottery 5th grade seats and SH offers very few, all of which speaks to demand for SH. There may be OOB students in that mix but it's trending more towards IB in lower grades with current demographic shifts and the numbers of younger ES students in both DC and within those boundaries.

Some of SH IB families opt for ES charters and some leave for MS charters but that's no easier for SH IB students than anyone else.

Most of the high SES/white/in-boundary parents currently at Ludlow, Peabody/Watkins and JO Wilson in the lower grades are unlikely to stay the course for the upper grades, let alone chose SH. Even Brent and Maury, schools at least five years ahead of Ludlow in their development trajectories still lose many upper grades families to the burbs and privates. You'll see a slow steady uptick in the percentages of white and high SES families at SH in the next ten years, not a rush on a school without above grade-level offerings, particularly for math. SH is a mediocre school in an increasingly nice facility, no more. If SH is at 1/3 white ten years from now in a catchment area that's close to 80% white, I'll be surprised.

You speak anecdotally but the data paints a very different picture. Most schools have some attrition. There has been less scarcity of alternatives in the past 5 years in DC than the next 5 years will have. You just have to look at the numbers of rising 5th graders and the greater numbers behind them to see this trend. DCPS sees it, which is why they're betting more families will try to make the currently weak options better because they won't have a ton of alternatives for public school short of moving, which is a big expensive step in its own right.

Most of they suburbs worth moving to are just as expensive as DC and families committed to city living aren't a given to decamp. Families I know on the Hill would just as soon live in Fairfax as NW and don't really like either -- they'd already be there if they did.

SH already offers more honor courses than any DCPS MS other than Deal and Hardy. I don't care if SH is 1% white. It's not a factor. 1/3 white would be comparable to where Deal was about 3-4 years ago if you like perspective.

The most interesting picture that the data paints is that the number of young children in upper NW is projected to shrink. Young families with young children are priced out, older families with teenagers aren't moving, because they're using the MS & HS. The fastest growing wards in terms of population of young children are EOTR (as always) and Wards 4 & 5 in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Those Ward 3 ESs will begin to have empty spaces for OOB students. Again - residents aren't moving, but they're too old to have babies. Once again, Ward 3 will become an escape hatch for low-performing DCPS schools EOTP.

If you've got 5 years to wait until PK3, this may be the case. However, I know plenty of young families who can afford NW at the moment.

So true -- it's tough buying in upper NW with low inventory and widespread NIMBYism as a rule for new development. Being able to afford and willing to afford/move are two very different things. I can easily afford to move too.

I don't have a crystal ball but I doubt it will ever get easy to get space in top NW schools. The population projections who more residents without a clear picture of where they'll settle. Janney, Lafayette and Murch are all large catchments and within transit corridors which have the greatest potential to provide more residents.

[Anonymous]

Takoma Park is basically the only quasi-affordable (roughly equivalent to the Watkins/cheap part of Maury or LT/expensive part of Miner neighborhoods) part of the Deal/Wilson catchment area assuming you're not willing to massively downsize.

[Anonymous]

^^ ES for the area is Shepherd.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^^ ES for the area is Shepherd.

No - Takoma DC is zoned to Takoma EC.

Shepherd Park and Colonia Village are zoned to Shepherd Park ES.

[Anonymous]

Sorry, there are parts of what I would consider Takoma Park that are zoned for Shepherd (the cheapest parts), that's why I clarified. (I've literally never heard of someone refer to their neighborhood as Colonia Village, so perhaps that's where I mean.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jefferson is serving only about 80 kids living in the catchment boundary. Brent is never going to send scores of kids to Jefferson by virtue of its size alone and the same will be true of Van Ness. So what is the rationale for keeping the school open when it's only half filled and badly in need of modernization? DCPS is incapable of seeing the forest for the trees, otherwise Eliot-Hine would have been modernized before Watkins to provide a suitable swing space. Maybe some Hill parents can coalesce around a plan to excess Jefferson so that Basis or another charter can have a proper middle/high school campus. After all, Henderson should be made to choke on her pronouncement that DCPS doesn't do middle school very well. In the absence of the NCLB waiver Jefferson would be just another of many failing schools in our city.

So where are all of these kids from VN and Brent going to go to Middle school?

See if you can get in touch with Adrian Fenty and ask why he surplused Hine.

So the answer to three deficient MS on the Hill is a fourth deficient MS? Hine was failing even when a much lower bar for failure existed at DCPS

Logic isn't your strength, is it? Hine was located on major bus line and above the EM metro station.

Not the PP to whom you're responding.

You are suggesting that the "strong logic" for a fourth under-enrolled, under-utilized, and low-performing MS in Ward 6 is that it's convenient to metro, and then criticizing someone else.

Legalized marijuana at work...

Marijuana hasn't been legalized sweetie.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jefferson is serving only about 80 kids living in the catchment boundary. Brent is never going to send scores of kids to Jefferson by virtue of its size alone and the same will be true of Van Ness. So what is the rationale for keeping the school open when it's only half filled and badly in need of modernization? DCPS is incapable of seeing the forest for the trees, otherwise Eliot-Hine would have been modernized before Watkins to provide a suitable swing space. Maybe some Hill parents can coalesce around a plan to excess Jefferson so that Basis or another charter can have a proper middle/high school campus. After all, Henderson should be made to choke on her pronouncement that DCPS doesn't do middle school very well. In the absence of the NCLB waiver Jefferson would be just another of many failing schools in our city.

So where are all of these kids from VN and Brent going to go to Middle school?

See if you can get in touch with Adrian Fenty and ask why he surplused Hine.

So the answer to three deficient MS on the Hill is a fourth deficient MS? Hine was failing even when a much lower bar for failure existed at DCPS

Logic isn't your strength, is it? Hine was located on major bus line and above the EM metro station.

Not the PP to whom you're responding.

You are suggesting that the "strong logic" for a fourth under-enrolled, under-utilized, and low-performing MS in Ward 6 is that it's convenient to metro, and then criticizing someone else.

Legalized marijuana at work...

Marijuana hasn't been legalized sweetie.

Decriminalization is effectively legalization, sweetie.

While I personally don't give a damn either way how high you choose to get, it's stupid beyond compare to think we should all fall in with your bong-dream that a fourth under-subscribed and undesirable MS on the Hill is the escape from this quagmire.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:+1. The Hill is in dire need of a new forum for parents to provide input on how to address the brewing neighborhood middle school crisis. The simple fact is that many families with kids currently in Hill DCPS elementary schools are going to wind up moving to the burbs if nothing changes. Brent, Maury and SWS parents have already lost access to Stuart Hobson short spectacular lottery luck, and many Cluster and Ludlow-Taylor parents won't use the school going forward. Jefferson is going to be a non-starter for families already at Brent, Tyler SI and Van Ness, other than perhaps a few die hards.

Few Hill families can afford private school from 6th grade up, and there aren't nearly enough spots in independent middle schools within easy reach of the Hill even for those who can. I don't like how the Brent PTA middle school committee is lobbying hard to gin up a massive investment in Jefferson without soliciting input from the broader school community first, to determine whether or not this is what most parents want. If I had a chance to respond to a survey on MS development options, or to vote in a PTA sponsored referendum on MS, I'd vote no on the Jefferson plan, with many others. This is the inconvenient truth school leaders must face at some point. The democratic process hasn't been subverted here; there has been no democratic process to avoiding the messiness of one. As a result, you're going to see a backlash over time, as the optimists crank up their PR machine to push the magical-thinking in Tues News, Brent neighbors, at PTA meetings etc.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. You can refer to families IB for Cluster/LT who eschew IB for alternatives, but the families who remain at Watkins and LT mostly comprise the feeders to SH. Watkins, LT, and JO Wilson offer very few lottery 5th grade seats and SH offers very few, all of which speaks to demand for SH. There may be OOB students in that mix but it's trending more towards IB in lower grades with current demographic shifts and the numbers of younger ES students in both DC and within those boundaries.

Some of SH IB families opt for ES charters and some leave for MS charters but that's no easier for SH IB students than anyone else.

Most of the high SES/white/in-boundary parents currently at Ludlow, Peabody/Watkins and JO Wilson in the lower grades are unlikely to stay the course for the upper grades, let alone chose SH. Even Brent and Maury, schools at least five years ahead of Ludlow in their development trajectories still lose many upper grades families to the burbs and privates. You'll see a slow steady uptick in the percentages of white and high SES families at SH in the next ten years, not a rush on a school without above grade-level offerings, particularly for math. SH is a mediocre school in an increasingly nice facility, no more. If SH is at 1/3 white ten years from now in a catchment area that's close to 80% white, I'll be surprised.

You speak anecdotally but the data paints a very different picture. Most schools have some attrition. There has been less scarcity of alternatives in the past 5 years in DC than the next 5 years will have. You just have to look at the numbers of rising 5th graders and the greater numbers behind them to see this trend. DCPS sees it, which is why they're betting more families will try to make the currently weak options better because they won't have a ton of alternatives for public school short of moving, which is a big expensive step in its own right.

Most of they suburbs worth moving to are just as expensive as DC and families committed to city living aren't a given to decamp. Families I know on the Hill would just as soon live in Fairfax as NW and don't really like either -- they'd already be there if they did.

SH already offers more honor courses than any DCPS MS other than Deal and Hardy. I don't care if SH is 1% white. It's not a factor. 1/3 white would be comparable to where Deal was about 3-4 years ago if you like perspective.

The most interesting picture that the data paints is that the number of young children in upper NW is projected to shrink. Young families with young children are priced out, older families with teenagers aren't moving, because they're using the MS & HS. The fastest growing wards in terms of population of young children are EOTR (as always) and Wards 4 & 5 in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Those Ward 3 ESs will begin to have empty spaces for OOB students. Again - residents aren't moving, but they're too old to have babies. Once again, Ward 3 will become an escape hatch for low-performing DCPS schools EOTP.

If you've got 5 years to wait until PK3, this may be the case. However, I know plenty of young families who can afford NW at the moment.

So true -- it's tough buying in upper NW with low inventory and widespread NIMBYism as a rule for new development. Being able to afford and willing to afford/move are two very different things. I can easily afford to move too.

I don't have a crystal ball but I doubt it will ever get easy to get space in top NW schools. The population projections who more residents without a clear picture of where they'll settle. Janney, Lafayette and Murch are all large catchments and within transit corridors which have the greatest potential to provide more residents.

You don't need a crystal ball. DME commissioned research on this during the boundary revision process.

Lafayette enrollment is projected to decline over the next decade, yes, decline. Unless there is a susden huge influx of families with toddlers, this is clear in the numbers. Janney is leas clear but likely close to its peak.

You may anecdotally know young families who can afford $1m houses, but most families in DC who can afford that feature adults in their 50s, not late 20s early 30s. The IB parents currently with kids at Wilson probably paid an average of $600k for their houses. Real estate market is different and there are no longer enough young families that can afford to buy IB for Wilson's new boundaries. Enrollment will decline.

[Anonymous]

Lafayette will decline because it is zoned for Hardy. I'd move to the burbs before moving to a school zoned for Hardy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lafayette will decline because it is zoned for Hardy. I'd move to the burbs before moving to a school zoned for Hardy.

No. Lafayette is still zoned for Deal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Takoma Park is basically the only quasi-affordable (roughly equivalent to the Watkins/cheap part of Maury or LT/expensive part of Miner neighborhoods) part of the Deal/Wilson catchment area assuming you're not willing to massively downsize.

Where is this magical "cheap part of Maury/Watkins"? I know their boundary expanded, but unless you want to live in far hill east, you can't find anything decent for under a million. Most of Watkins is sky-high expensive! Where is this magical "cheap" part of Capitol Hill? I'm looking to buy!!

Or are you one of those people who went to Eastern Market in 2005 twice and are therefore experts on the real estate market?