My friend’s home in Palo Alto tripled in value in 10 years!

[Anonymous]

I was recently looking at a property in Anne Arundel county listed for 4x what the seller paid only 5 years ago. Y’all have really slept on AA Co.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was recently looking at a property in Anne Arundel county listed for 4x what the seller paid only 5 years ago. Y’all have really slept on AA Co.

Annapolis, especially, became a Zoomtown during Covid. Even if people go back to offices, the buyers in was cheap enough that they can keep properties as second homes or AirBnB them to Naval Academy parents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone think this kind of appreciation can happen. Ke that amazon is going to grow and set up shop? South Arlington and Alexandria have a lot of undesirable aspects (mostly schools) so maybe those markets will see a bigger boost of companies shift offices there instead of Reston and Herndon.

I can see growth here slowing but more sustained.

No

Arlington and Alexandria are overbuilding rental buildings and condos to meet projected demand from future young Amazon employees who will actually work in National Landing. Other employees will have some impact on single family and townhouse market but Reston and Ashburn will also appreciate because of Loudoun County tech community. Many of those parents want better high schools than offered in Arlington. Alexandria, or South Fairfax county.

Many don’t appreciate the charm of Falls Church or faux wealth of McLean.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That's a 12% y/y rate of return.

The stock market more than tripled in value in the last 10 years -- the sustained rise that started under Obama (once the financial crisis was over) and continued until today interrupted only by COVID.

S&P was 1,200 in 2011, and is around 4,000 today.

Ok let's assume you are right.
What you don't understand is that real estate is a leveraged investment.
Buy a $1.5m house, put 20% down ($300k). House triples in 10 years ($4.5m). Your profit is $3m. You have 10x your investment. That's called leverage.
The same $300k invested in the S&P would have given you a 3.5x return on your investment at best.

That's true, of course.

But leverage has more risk too: more risk of downside. If the house went down to $1.2 M in price, when you tried to sell, you might owe money.

There's no such thing as a free lunch. Buying a home is a leveraged investment. If the market is going up as it has recently, great. If it goes down that's not great.

If you hold your real estate over time, in most areas arose here, it is more likely that it will go up in value than go down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That's a 12% y/y rate of return.

The stock market more than tripled in value in the last 10 years -- the sustained rise that started under Obama (once the financial crisis was over) and continued until today interrupted only by COVID.

S&P was 1,200 in 2011, and is around 4,000 today.

Ok let's assume you are right.
What you don't understand is that real estate is a leveraged investment.
Buy a $1.5m house, put 20% down ($300k). House triples in 10 years ($4.5m). Your profit is $3m. You have 10x your investment. That's called leverage.
The same $300k invested in the S&P would have given you a 3.5x return on your investment at best.

That's true, of course.

But leverage has more risk too: more risk of downside. If the house went down to $1.2 M in price, when you tried to sell, you might owe money.

There's no such thing as a free lunch. Buying a home is a leveraged investment. If the market is going up as it has recently, great. If it goes down that's not great.

If you hold your real estate over time, in most areas arose here, it is more likely that it will go up in value than go down.

Not true, especially with condos. Also getting rid of RE is horribly $$$. The transactions fees for buying and selling, even without the real estate agent commissions, are a crime. We bought and sold 3 houses so far in Virginia and I could have bought a condo in DE with all the fees that I've paid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wow. Seems like they are set for life. They will have to pay capital gains tax but still a good profit.

Np Tell that to the person who asked if $8 million was enough and people here said NO!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Tech stock really can fly up. In pandemic I got crazy lowballed on salary as unemployed but did get 50k sign on bonus in options. (3-year vesting). They are worth 300k now. We have folks at work from 2017 sitting on millions in options and RSUs. Many are between 26-34. It is free money not like our parents hard end money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone think this kind of appreciation can happen. Ke that amazon is going to grow and set up shop? South Arlington and Alexandria have a lot of undesirable aspects (mostly schools) so maybe those markets will see a bigger boost of companies shift offices there instead of Reston and Herndon.

I can see growth here slowing but more sustained.

I think that one difference with the Bay Area is that in SF building new housing is artificially limited by local politics. And just the geography of the Bay Area impacts the amount of commutable real estate you can buy. Also people on here overvalue schools. Look at SF….the schools are terrible.

[Anonymous]

My house in Richmond has tripled in value in less than 10 years.

[Anonymous]

I bought a house in Shaw for $150K in 1997. I sold it in 2003 for $540K.

When I bought it I was eligible for a program for first-time homebuyers where I only needed 3% for a downpayment. So I bought it for $4500 down. I made a profit of $390,000 on an investment of $4500 in six years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They bought it for $1.5m in 2010 and recently sold it for $4.5m. Any areas in DC that have seen that much growth in already-expensive homes?

Great, good luck finding a house in the price-range they bought
Yay for prop 13

[Anonymous]

Trinidad.

[Anonymous]

Well 10 years ago the overall housing market across the US was in a lull, including the Bay Area where 2011 prices matched its 2004 prices, so this is not at all hard to believe or achieve. Since 2011 prices have increased 88%.

[Anonymous]

Austin still has some growth potential.
Bought for $500k, worth $1.5mil in 6 years.
I think it still has a chance to double due to growth. It’s in a very desirable area very close to downtown, large lot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was recently looking at a property in Anne Arundel county listed for 4x what the seller paid only 5 years ago. Y’all have really slept on AA Co.

Annapolis, especially, became a Zoomtown during Covid. Even if people go back to offices, the buyers in was cheap enough that they can keep properties as second homes or AirBnB them to Naval Academy parents.

I own an Annapolis area waterfront home. DCUM told me I was dumb when I bought it and told me I would get stung by jellyfish.