Forecast - College admissions for Class of 2022?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

Yes. Tests are more available than before but test centers are still cancelling. I just got an email today that our test center in June is cancelled. So now I’m scrambling looking for another place. And this is here in DMV.

+1
My daughter’s May test center just canceled. Ugh.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

So that you can BS through the process?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

Every kid I know who did 1400+ on the SAT thinks it is an easy test, no big deal, happy to take it once.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

Every kid I know who did 1400+ on the SAT thinks it is an easy test, no big deal, happy to take it once.

That's talk from someone who lives in a bubble. Only a small percentage score 1400+ and think it's an "easy test."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

So that you can BS through the process?

Exactly. The subjectivity from school to school and teacher to teacher is why standardized tests exist in the first place. It’s the only way to measure one student against each other by the same standard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

So that you can BS through the process?

Exactly. The subjectivity from school to school and teacher to teacher is why standardized tests exist in the first place. It’s the only way to measure one student against each other by the same standard.

Before COVID, test optional schools had the student submit something in lieu of the test. I think it was generally a graded paper and some other things but I can’t remember what they were. I assume graded because it was more likely to be written by the student, not a college counselor, etc. I think that is not a bad proxy. They can see if the student can reason and write, which is frankly more important for college than whether they can game the test. And it is about gaming the test. That’s why the Prep courses teach the common questions and tricks.

[Anonymous]

Contrarian here. I suspect the confidence interval around decisions made on individuals by college admissions committees is much lower than we as outsiders understand in the absence of standardized tests for roughly 25 percent of admitted students. As the 2021-2022 academic year progresses, I predict that a higher than expected proportion of incoming college students will struggle (because of poor fit vis-a-vis academic rigor) at the most selective schools. This will be sad on an individual level for those students who are in over their heads. Professors will provide the first line of feedback about higher than typical weakness in the entering class. Standardized tests are best used as confirming data and class of 2025 has a hole or vulnerability to downside given lack of confirming data for 25 percent of the class. For class of 2026 (high school class of 2022), pendulum will swing back dramatically in the other direction, despite another year of test optional, as admission committees seek to adjust or correct confidence intervals as to what they are actually getting with the incoming class. High stats kids, especially those with high test scores, will do very well for next year’s applicants. Admission committees will lean into more certainty, namely high scores, to correct for classes of 2024 and 2025.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Contrarian here. I suspect the confidence interval around decisions made on individuals by college admissions committees is much lower than we as outsiders understand in the absence of standardized tests for roughly 25 percent of admitted students. As the 2021-2022 academic year progresses, I predict that a higher than expected proportion of incoming college students will struggle (because of poor fit vis-a-vis academic rigor) at the most selective schools. This will be sad on an individual level for those students who are in over their heads. Professors will provide the first line of feedback about higher than typical weakness in the entering class. Standardized tests are best used as confirming data and class of 2025 has a hole or vulnerability to downside given lack of confirming data for 25 percent of the class. For class of 2026 (high school class of 2022), pendulum will swing back dramatically in the other direction, despite another year of test optional, as admission committees seek to adjust or correct confidence intervals as to what they are actually getting with the incoming class. High stats kids, especially those with high test scores, will do very well for next year’s applicants. Admission committees will lean into more certainty, namely high scores, to correct for classes of 2024 and 2025.

Total speculation - which you are entitled to of course, but total speculation regardless. I seriously doubt many of these claims, especially the one where you state test optional students "will be over their heads". Data from long test optional schools suggests this is untrue. Time will tell. We'll see if graduation rates drop 4 years from now. My money thinks they won't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

So that you can BS through the process?

Exactly. The subjectivity from school to school and teacher to teacher is why standardized tests exist in the first place. It’s the only way to measure one student against each other by the same standard.

Before COVID, test optional schools had the student submit something in lieu of the test. I think it was generally a graded paper and some other things but I can’t remember what they were. I assume graded because it was more likely to be written by the student, not a college counselor, etc. I think that is not a bad proxy. They can see if the student can reason and write, which is frankly more important for college than whether they can game the test. And it is about gaming the test. That’s why the Prep courses teach the common questions and tricks.

I don't think that's true of any of the test optional schools I'm aware of. Students submitted the application and essays as usual, at the schools I'm aware of. Just no tests.

[Anonymous]

They will dumb down the curriculum or give the lower performing students a pass. The colleges have bills to pay and don't want to lose revenue from drop outs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

So that you can BS through the process?

Exactly. The subjectivity from school to school and teacher to teacher is why standardized tests exist in the first place. It’s the only way to measure one student against each other by the same standard.

Before COVID, test optional schools had the student submit something in lieu of the test. I think it was generally a graded paper and some other things but I can’t remember what they were. I assume graded because it was more likely to be written by the student, not a college counselor, etc. I think that is not a bad proxy. They can see if the student can reason and write, which is frankly more important for college than whether they can game the test. And it is about gaming the test. That’s why the Prep courses teach the common questions and tricks.

I don't think that's true of any of the test optional schools I'm aware of. Students submitted the application and essays as usual, at the schools I'm aware of. Just no tests.

It is definitely true at some schools. I would say Mount Holyoke and maybe Bryn Mawr and I’m sure others . I can’t remember which because my DD did not apply test optional. I recall it because my younger will likely apply test optional and I was seeing what it looked like. At that time (2019-2020), I know other things were required if you went test optional because I was surprised and was thinking about what you would have to gather.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Contrarian here. I suspect the confidence interval around decisions made on individuals by college admissions committees is much lower than we as outsiders understand in the absence of standardized tests for roughly 25 percent of admitted students. As the 2021-2022 academic year progresses, I predict that a higher than expected proportion of incoming college students will struggle (because of poor fit vis-a-vis academic rigor) at the most selective schools. This will be sad on an individual level for those students who are in over their heads. Professors will provide the first line of feedback about higher than typical weakness in the entering class. Standardized tests are best used as confirming data and class of 2025 has a hole or vulnerability to downside given lack of confirming data for 25 percent of the class. For class of 2026 (high school class of 2022), pendulum will swing back dramatically in the other direction, despite another year of test optional, as admission committees seek to adjust or correct confidence intervals as to what they are actually getting with the incoming class. High stats kids, especially those with high test scores, will do very well for next year’s applicants. Admission committees will lean into more certainty, namely high scores, to correct for classes of 2024 and 2025.

Nah, it's not that hard to do well at the most selective schools. Getting in is the hard part. I think at my college (an ivy) the avg grade is an A-.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Test optional needs to stop. Test sites are widely available for the class of 2022 and will continue through the year.

I recently attended a virtual college session hosted by our public school and many college recruiters participated. They also said they think that test optional is here to stay. It is what it is.

That is not appropriate because a.) college is full of tests, and the kid has to be able to test, like the other students have to be able to test and b.) test optional is not leveling any playing ground, because colleges want to know that your kid can do well there, and tests are just one indicator c.) ultimately, it is better for the class if the tests continue, as they always have d.) the more factors to make your kid stand out, the better.

Actually, much (most?) of college is writing papers and short word answers and doing problem sets that require you to show your work, not taking multiple choice tests.

Exactly. I’d rather kids have to write a five-page essay that was graded by a teacher as their entrance exam. College students don’t take standardized tests. It’s bizarre that they have to take one to be admitted to college. The entrance standards should replicate the kind of work they’ll actually be expected to do.

So that you can BS through the process?

+1

BINGO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They will dumb down the curriculum or give the lower performing students a pass. The colleges have bills to pay and don't want to lose revenue from drop outs.

+1

This explains the yield protection this year.