Reply to Forecast - College admissions for Class of 2022?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Contrarian here.  I suspect the confidence interval around decisions made on individuals by college admissions committees is much lower than we as outsiders understand in the absence of standardized tests for roughly 25 percent of admitted students.  As the 2021-2022 academic year progresses, I predict that a higher than expected proportion of incoming college students will struggle (because of poor fit vis-a-vis academic rigor) at the most selective schools.  This will be sad on an individual level for those students who are in over their heads.  Professors will provide the first line of feedback about higher than typical weakness in the entering class.  Standardized tests are best used as confirming data and class of 2025 has a hole or vulnerability to downside given lack of confirming data for 25 percent of the class.  For class of 2026 (high school class of 2022), pendulum will swing back dramatically in the other direction, despite another year of test optional, as admission committees seek to adjust or correct confidence intervals as to what they are actually getting with the incoming class.  High stats kids, especially those with high test scores, will do very well for next year’s applicants.  Admission committees will lean into more certainty, namely high scores, to correct for classes of 2024 and 2025.

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Total speculation - which you are entitled to of course, but total speculation regardless.  I seriously doubt many of these claims, especially the one where you state test optional students "will be over their heads".  Data from long test optional schools suggests this is untrue.  Time will tell.  We'll see if graduation rates drop 4 years from now.  My money thinks they won't.[/quote]

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