Will competition for admission decrease for kids born in 2008 +?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think how this shows up will mostly vary by location. The changes in the US population vary a lot depending on region and city. And most students still stay within their general geographic region for college.

The schools that are hardest hit are going to be commuter public schools and lesser-known private schools in the rust belt.

I agree, but I would add privates in the Northeast as having trouble (except the tippy top schools). Western LACs seem to be doing better their counterparts elsewhere, the Claremont colleges and Colorado College have very low acceptance rates compared to their ranks.

[Anonymous]

I hear that China is cracking down on their citizens taking their cash abroad. But of course, there are plenty of other countries with rich citizens who are interested in educating their kids in the U.S.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think how this shows up will mostly vary by location. The changes in the US population vary a lot depending on region and city. And most students still stay within their general geographic region for college.

The schools that are hardest hit are going to be commuter public schools and lesser-known private schools in the rust belt.

Uhhh ... schools in the northeast are already closing or closed. I have a handful of friends who are profs at big and small DCUM faves. They are definitely talking about the upcoming student population decline. The ones at the smaller universities are really tuned in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


Not at the better-known schools, because any decline in domestic applications will be compensated by international applications.

No, international student numbers are down compared to the Obama admin years.

Temporary visa issues that will likely not last with a new administration.

Reputational issues that will take a generation or more to repair.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think how this shows up will mostly vary by location. The changes in the US population vary a lot depending on region and city. And most students still stay within their general geographic region for college.

The schools that are hardest hit are going to be commuter public schools and lesser-known private schools in the rust belt.

Uhhh ... schools in the northeast are already closing or closed. I have a handful of friends who are profs at big and small DCUM faves. They are definitely talking about the upcoming student population decline. The ones at the smaller universities are really tuned in.

+1 I am a faculty member at a university often discussed on this board. I have attended three governance meetings this semester and the main topic in each meeting is the upcoming student population decline. Also of concern is the current administration's policy regarding visas.

[Anonymous]

A few observations: looking at Northeast % changes makes no sense, since you're talking about shrinking population there but of course kids in TX and CA and CO are still applying to colleges all over the country. Also, I think you have to blame a lot of the projected fall-off on cost. People just can't afford what these private colleges are charging. The most elite will always have more than enough takers, but lower-tier schools have to realize they just aren't worth the price difference compared to community college or public universities. I wish they would come up with a lower cost model, hello!

[Anonymous]

I think there are a lot of parents of Millennials on here who are jealous and trying to deny that this is a real issue that will benefit younger Gen Z kids.

It's kind of amusing to see them trying to deny it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A few observations: looking at Northeast % changes makes no sense, since you're talking about shrinking population there but of course kids in TX and CA and CO are still applying to colleges all over the country. Also, I think you have to blame a lot of the projected fall-off on cost. People just can't afford what these private colleges are charging. The most elite will always have more than enough takers, but lower-tier schools have to realize they just aren't worth the price difference compared to community college or public universities. I wish they would come up with a lower cost model, hello!

I agree that cost is a factor but public institutions are concerned too. My colleagues that teach at top public universities shared that their administrators are also concerned and preparing for the drop.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've read that Gen Z is much smaller than the millennial generation and that there is a "college apocalypse" supposed to be happening for kids during the 2008 Recession and the years immediately after (i.e. a time when the birth rate sharply declined).

What do you think?

***

Some forecasters, including famed Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen, predict as many as half of all universities will close or go bankrupt in the next decade. The crisis is largely driven by declining enrollment facilitated by the Great Recession, which resulted in a significant drop in the U.S. birthrate. Scholars estimate that nearly 2.3 million fewer babies were born between 2008 and 2013, which, when combined with an expansion of higher education offerings in the decades preceding that, mean too many slots compared to the number of applicants.

Economist Nathan Grawe, who coined the term "birth dearth" in his 2017 book, "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education," estimates that the number of students graduating from high school in New England who are then likely to enroll in four-year colleges and universities will be 24 percent lower in 2029 than it was in 2012.

In fact, just seven years from now, he estimates, there will be 32,000 to 54,000 fewer college-aged students in New England, which has both the lowest fertility rate and highest concentration of colleges in the country.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2019-03-22/college-closings-signal-start-of-a-crisis-in-higher-education

LOL it’s a decline of at most 3.2%. Still more demand vs spots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think there are a lot of parents of Millennials on here who are jealous and trying to deny that this is a real issue that will benefit younger Gen Z kids.

It's kind of amusing to see them trying to deny it.

+ 1

Especially when you add in the cost factor.

People who can pay full freight will have a real edge.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've read that Gen Z is much smaller than the millennial generation and that there is a "college apocalypse" supposed to be happening for kids during the 2008 Recession and the years immediately after (i.e. a time when the birth rate sharply declined).

What do you think?

***

Some forecasters, including famed Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen, predict as many as half of all universities will close or go bankrupt in the next decade. The crisis is largely driven by declining enrollment facilitated by the Great Recession, which resulted in a significant drop in the U.S. birthrate. Scholars estimate that nearly 2.3 million fewer babies were born between 2008 and 2013, which, when combined with an expansion of higher education offerings in the decades preceding that, mean too many slots compared to the number of applicants.

Economist Nathan Grawe, who coined the term "birth dearth" in his 2017 book, "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education," estimates that the number of students graduating from high school in New England who are then likely to enroll in four-year colleges and universities will be 24 percent lower in 2029 than it was in 2012.

In fact, just seven years from now, he estimates, there will be 32,000 to 54,000 fewer college-aged students in New England, which has both the lowest fertility rate and highest concentration of colleges in the country.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2019-03-22/college-closings-signal-start-of-a-crisis-in-higher-education

LOL it’s a decline of at most 3.2%. Still more demand vs spots.

How did you arrive at this number?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


Not at the better-known schools, because any decline in domestic applications will be compensated by international applications.

No, international student numbers are down compared to the Obama admin years.

Temporary visa issues that will likely not last with a new administration.

Reputational issues that will take a generation or more to repair.

If I had a nickel for every international student that wanted to study in the US, especially if they could find someone else to pay for it... (They are all over reddit.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Maybe these schools should stop wasting money on fancy buildings and dorms and stuff that are not needed.

Amen to this and the idea that colleges should drop their tuition costs. These unreasonable tuition costs are so divorced from reality. I thought the costs were insane 25 years ago. Now, colleges charge more for 10 mos of classes than their graduates will earn in a year!

Capitalism and free markets are great until they bite you, huh?

No, this is not an example of the free market biting. There has been way too much money to spend on colleges because of expanding government loans for college. That loose money has sponsored the price increases.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


Not at the better-known schools, because any decline in domestic applications will be compensated by international applications.

No, international student numbers are down compared to the Obama admin years.

Temporary visa issues that will likely not last with a new administration.

Reputational issues that will take a generation or more to repair.

If I had a nickel for every international student that wanted to study in the US, especially if they could find someone else to pay for it... (They are all over reddit.)

key words

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP. So I’m assuming it’ll still be hard to get into the tippy top schools (Ivy plus Stanford and such).

What about the next rung though? Wash U, Williams, Middlebury, Hopkins, Emory, Tufts, Rice, UR, Vandy, etc.

Think competition will drop there?

No. They still have far more qualified students than they have spots.

Exactly, those are the schools the UMC private school kids go to, full pay, and play lacrosse and the like. That demographic isn’t going anywhere.