Will competition for admission decrease for kids born in 2008 +?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Why do people keep saying foreign born students will keep competition up?

American students compete with other Americans. Then if there are spots left, they let in foreigners who can pay.

But all else equal, they prefer Americans who can pay.



+1

If schools have to resort to foreign students, that necessarily means there is less competition for Americans.

At some schools, yes. But Harvard is 13% international students and I'm pretty sure that wasn't because there wasn't enough good American applicants to fill the Harvard class.

There will always be foreign students who can pay and will fill the spaces.

I would say most schools.

Which schools have a majority or even large minority (30-40%) of foreign students?

[Anonymous]

I think how this shows up will mostly vary by location. The changes in the US population vary a lot depending on region and city. And most students still stay within their general geographic region for college.

The schools that are hardest hit are going to be commuter public schools and lesser-known private schools in the rust belt.

[Anonymous]

What about schools like Wash U?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What about schools like Wash U?

I don't think schools in that tier that are nationally-known will be impacted.

[Anonymous]

Not at the better-known schools, because any decline in domestic applications will be compensated by international applications.

[Anonymous]

Given the number of Asian international students at private and boarding schools in my area, I think it more likely than not wealthy students from Asia will be happy to find more seats available at prestigious American colleges.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am on the board of a very small college in the midwest. We have seen our freshman class rise from 880 in the early 2000s to 1400 this year. We are planning it to stager and then drop off. We hope not back to 900...we would love for it to stay around 1050/1100 by 2030. My point is if my little itty bitty home town college knows its coming I am sure the big schools have a huge plan in action for it too. We have also finished all our new buildings for the foreseeable future...we got caught up in a cycle where every 5 years we open the newest and greatest XZY center and we aren't going to swim in that pool anymore. One thing we are worried about is potentially having empty dorms so we are looking at incising upperclassman to stay on campus when the population drops off.

I was a Gen X/baby bust student. My school had a couple of empty dorms. They were refurbished and opened when the current crop hit campus.

Yup. I was born in 1974, which I believe I’ve read was the absolute nadir in number of births in the U.S. When I was growing up, elementary schools were closing. In my big, populous county, a large high school had 2000 kids, which is the norm now. And the acceptance rate at the top-25 school I attended was higher my HS graduation year (1992) than it has been in the last 30 years.

It’s also well-covered that Gen X is much, much smaller than the Boomers or Millenial generations. So it makes sense that Gen Z, composed mostly of the children of Gen X, is also smaller. I would assume the result of this population bust will be lots of smaller schools closing and top 100 schools becoming less selective. Then, when the Millenials’ kids come of age, demand at top 100 will go nuts again, but the relief valves of smaller schools won’t be there. So predators (like for-profit schools) will fill the demand, leaving large numbers of students with crazy debt.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Except that, so far at least, millenials are not having kids at near the rate of previous generations. And the oldest of the millenials are almost 40 so it won't be too many more years before their fertility/ reproductivity really starts to drop off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've read that Gen Z is much smaller than the millennial generation and that there is a "college apocalypse" supposed to be happening for kids during the 2008 Recession and the years immediately after (i.e. a time when the birth rate sharply declined).

What do you think?

***

Some forecasters, including famed Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen, predict as many as half of all universities will close or go bankrupt in the next decade. The crisis is largely driven by declining enrollment facilitated by the Great Recession, which resulted in a significant drop in the U.S. birthrate. Scholars estimate that nearly 2.3 million fewer babies were born between 2008 and 2013, which, when combined with an expansion of higher education offerings in the decades preceding that, mean too many slots compared to the number of applicants.

Economist Nathan Grawe, who coined the term "birth dearth" in his 2017 book, "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education," estimates that the number of students graduating from high school in New England who are then likely to enroll in four-year colleges and universities will be 24 percent lower in 2029 than it was in 2012.

In fact, just seven years from now, he estimates, there will be 32,000 to 54,000 fewer college-aged students in New England, which has both the lowest fertility rate and highest concentration of colleges in the country.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2019-03-22/college-closings-signal-start-of-a-crisis-in-higher-education

Declining birthrates is probably being offset by immigration?

No, not since the Trump administration and if he gets a second term, the numbers will continue to decrease or level out for new immigrants. Like a previous poster, I also work in higher ed (at a college discussed on this board) and the upcoming 15-20% decrease, as well as the issue of enrolling foreign students due to Trump admin policies, is the primary concern regarding enrollment for the next 5-10 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


Not at the better-known schools, because any decline in domestic applications will be compensated by international applications.

No, international student numbers are down compared to the Obama admin years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


Not at the better-known schools, because any decline in domestic applications will be compensated by international applications.

No this is down due to how hard it is to get a visa after. You can thank Trump for that.

[Anonymous]

Maybe these schools should stop wasting money on fancy buildings and dorms and stuff that are not needed.

Amen to this and the idea that colleges should drop their tuition costs. These unreasonable tuition costs are so divorced from reality. I thought the costs were insane 25 years ago. Now, colleges charge more for 10 mos of classes than their graduates will earn in a year!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


Not at the better-known schools, because any decline in domestic applications will be compensated by international applications.

No, international student numbers are down compared to the Obama admin years.

Temporary visa issues that will likely not last with a new administration.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


Not at the better-known schools, because any decline in domestic applications will be compensated by international applications.

No, international student numbers are down compared to the Obama admin years.

Temporary visa issues that will likely not last with a new administration.

PP, I agree, but not if Trump gets another term. I think he will.

[Anonymous]

Small colleges and private colleges will see the worst decline.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Maybe these schools should stop wasting money on fancy buildings and dorms and stuff that are not needed.

Amen to this and the idea that colleges should drop their tuition costs. These unreasonable tuition costs are so divorced from reality. I thought the costs were insane 25 years ago. Now, colleges charge more for 10 mos of classes than their graduates will earn in a year!

Capitalism and free markets are great until they bite you, huh?