Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nick, do you have anything to say about San Francisco? We're waiting...

Ward 3 equity at its finest. Oh, SF system is unpopular, says Nick. Not a peep about the increase in segregation and inequity that it produced.

Actually, the articles I've read on the SanFran state that the all-lottery system actually DID increase diversity of students across the board within their schools, but the test scores continued to be terrible, and high income family students resisted it like the plague and either went to the burbs in increasing numbers, or some high SES stayed if they could afford private$$ in the City. It was a failure academically, and extremely unpopular, so they booted it.

"Since 2010, the year before the current policy went into effect, the number of San Francisco’s 115 public schools dominated by one race has climbed significantly. Six in 10 have simple majorities of one racial group. In almost one-fourth, 60 percent or more of the students belong to one racial group, which administrators say makes them “racially isolated.” ...The drive toward racial isolation in the district parallels a larger trend in the city: With many wealthier families opting for private alternatives, the public school system is becoming racially and economically isolated from the city as a whole."
https://sfpublicpress.org/news/2015-02/as-parents-get-more-choice-sf-schools-resegregate

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.

Nick here.

Today DCPS has 13,000 empty seats so you could argue that any crowding is a policy issue not a facilities issue. But if the projections hold, in eight years those empty seats are going to be gone. This will be a new historic era for DCPS. There may be policy challenges, but there are going to be real facilities issues-- and not just WOTP.

I believe in neighborhood-based schools, for a lot of reasons. But right now nobody at any level of city government is doing the things that will need to be done to keep them a viable option.

I just don't see why they can't do new construction, reopen closed schools, and build additions.

Or allow charters to share space with underenrolled DCPS schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.

Nick here.

Today DCPS has 13,000 empty seats so you could argue that any crowding is a policy issue not a facilities issue. But if the projections hold, in eight years those empty seats are going to be gone. This will be a new historic era for DCPS. There may be policy challenges, but there are going to be real facilities issues-- and not just WOTP.

I believe in neighborhood-based schools, for a lot of reasons. But right now nobody at any level of city government is doing the things that will need to be done to keep them a viable option.

Nick, you are trying to force a Ward 3 mindset on the rest of the city. Your own map shows that there is plenty of capacity in many areas. They will figure it out when the time comes, and re-opening a closed building that DCPS owns is not that difficult, it does not require a 10-year advance plan.

I would encourage you to stick to Ward 3 and not assume an understanding of other areas that you don't actually possess.

[Anonymous]

Time to evict Duke Ellington from their little hill in “Georgetown” — Burleith actually — and reopen Western Hogh School to ease overcrowding EOTP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Time to evict Duke Ellington from their little hill in “Georgetown” — Burleith actually — and reopen Western Hogh School to ease overcrowding EOTP.

Clearly, you've missed the memo that a significant part of DCPS' high school plan is adding APPLICATION SCHOOl seats, not eliminating them.

Ellington is going nowhere. You lost that battle a decade ago. Let it go.

[Anonymous]

Nick, did you even add in the vacant sites? And what about the sites that are owned by DCPS and not officially vacant but in use as offices or swing space (Emery, Meyer, Bruce for example). Then there are buildings used by charters that closed, such as City Arts in Edgewood, that DCPS could potentially buy or rent. And office buildings and warehouses can also be purchased and converted. Yes city real estate is expensive, but if population grows enough, they will have the tax base to support it.

A lot of your "red" schools can cut back PK3 and PK4 as well and get 100-ish seats from that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.

Nick here.

Today DCPS has 13,000 empty seats so you could argue that any crowding is a policy issue not a facilities issue. But if the projections hold, in eight years those empty seats are going to be gone. This will be a new historic era for DCPS. There may be policy challenges, but there are going to be real facilities issues-- and not just WOTP.

I believe in neighborhood-based schools, for a lot of reasons. But right now nobody at any level of city government is doing the things that will need to be done to keep them a viable option.

Nick, you are trying to force a Ward 3 mindset on the rest of the city. Your own map shows that there is plenty of capacity in many areas. They will figure it out when the time comes, and re-opening a closed building that DCPS owns is not that difficult, it does not require a 10-year advance plan.

I would encourage you to stick to Ward 3 and not assume an understanding of other areas that you don't actually possess.

Why do you think they will figure it out when they have not yet? It takes years to get on the modernization list and once you are on it, you will be on it for 5 years before you step foot in a new building. Not to mention it is clear that the mayor is not really interested in DCPS school based on the funding levels.

Ward 3 is already a problem and other Wards will be joining them soon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.

Nick here.

Today DCPS has 13,000 empty seats so you could argue that any crowding is a policy issue not a facilities issue. But if the projections hold, in eight years those empty seats are going to be gone. This will be a new historic era for DCPS. There may be policy challenges, but there are going to be real facilities issues-- and not just WOTP.

I believe in neighborhood-based schools, for a lot of reasons. But right now nobody at any level of city government is doing the things that will need to be done to keep them a viable option.

Nick, you are trying to force a Ward 3 mindset on the rest of the city. Your own map shows that there is plenty of capacity in many areas. They will figure it out when the time comes, and re-opening a closed building that DCPS owns is not that difficult, it does not require a 10-year advance plan.

I would encourage you to stick to Ward 3 and not assume an understanding of other areas that you don't actually possess.

Why do you think they will figure it out when they have not yet? It takes years to get on the modernization list and once you are on it, you will be on it for 5 years before you step foot in a new building. Not to mention it is clear that the mayor is not really interested in DCPS school based on the funding levels.

Ward 3 is already a problem and other Wards will be joining them soon.

Because it just is not that complicated a thing to do. The politics are complicated. Construction and freshening up a building are really not. Modernizing an operating school is harder because it requires more planning and a swing space. Cleaning up an empty building is much easier.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.

Nick here.

Today DCPS has 13,000 empty seats so you could argue that any crowding is a policy issue not a facilities issue. But if the projections hold, in eight years those empty seats are going to be gone. This will be a new historic era for DCPS. There may be policy challenges, but there are going to be real facilities issues-- and not just WOTP.

I believe in neighborhood-based schools, for a lot of reasons. But right now nobody at any level of city government is doing the things that will need to be done to keep them a viable option.

Nick, you are trying to force a Ward 3 mindset on the rest of the city. Your own map shows that there is plenty of capacity in many areas. They will figure it out when the time comes, and re-opening a closed building that DCPS owns is not that difficult, it does not require a 10-year advance plan.

I would encourage you to stick to Ward 3 and not assume an understanding of other areas that you don't actually possess.

Why do you think they will figure it out when they have not yet? It takes years to get on the modernization list and once you are on it, you will be on it for 5 years before you step foot in a new building. Not to mention it is clear that the mayor is not really interested in DCPS school based on the funding levels.

Ward 3 is already a problem and other Wards will be joining them soon.

Because it just is not that complicated a thing to do. The politics are complicated. Construction and freshening up a building are really not. Modernizing an operating school is harder because it requires more planning and a swing space. Cleaning up an empty building is much easier.

And the construction and freshening up would be free? While swing space would not be an issue, funds still would be. There are schools that are falling apart because they have been touched in decades. There are schools, outside of Ward 3, that are overcrowded that have been fighting for years. You are right, it is the politics that takes time and that will still be the case with currently empty buildings.

The other question I would ask is where are these buildings? If they are not in areas where the projected growth is, then they aren't really that helpful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Nick, did you even add in the vacant sites? And what about the sites that are owned by DCPS and not officially vacant but in use as offices or swing space (Emery, Meyer, Bruce for example). Then there are buildings used by charters that closed, such as City Arts in Edgewood, that DCPS could potentially buy or rent. And office buildings and warehouses can also be purchased and converted. Yes city real estate is expensive, but if population grows enough, they will have the tax base to support it.

A lot of your "red" schools can cut back PK3 and PK4 as well and get 100-ish seats from that.

Nick here.

I only used what is in the Master Facilities Plan. (see https://dme.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dme/publication/attachments/DC_MFP_2019_Feb%2021_Final_compressed.pdf ). The capacities I listed for schools are what is listed in the plan. That includes all of the planned capital spending, which is listed in Appendix A.14. The spending plan goes through 2024, so presumably there will be more between 2024 and 2027. The spending plan spends over $1.6 billion over the next six years, but only adds a few hundred seats of capacity, most of the spending is upgrading but not expanding existing schools.

DCPS and DC in general is limited in its ability to do capital spending. The city has to finance capital spending through debt, and it has to stay within a very tight debt cap. We're still paying off a billion-dollar convention center and a billion-dollar baseball stadium, which means there is very little room under the cap. Each year we can only spend what got freed up that year, either from old debt being paid off or the city economy growing. This is why modernizations are spread out over so many years, the city doesn't have the ability to spend a lot of money all at once.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.

Nick here.

Today DCPS has 13,000 empty seats so you could argue that any crowding is a policy issue not a facilities issue. But if the projections hold, in eight years those empty seats are going to be gone. This will be a new historic era for DCPS. There may be policy challenges, but there are going to be real facilities issues-- and not just WOTP.

I believe in neighborhood-based schools, for a lot of reasons. But right now nobody at any level of city government is doing the things that will need to be done to keep them a viable option.

Nick, you are trying to force a Ward 3 mindset on the rest of the city. Your own map shows that there is plenty of capacity in many areas. They will figure it out when the time comes, and re-opening a closed building that DCPS owns is not that difficult, it does not require a 10-year advance plan.

I would encourage you to stick to Ward 3 and not assume an understanding of other areas that you don't actually possess.

Why do you think they will figure it out when they have not yet? It takes years to get on the modernization list and once you are on it, you will be on it for 5 years before you step foot in a new building. Not to mention it is clear that the mayor is not really interested in DCPS school based on the funding levels.

Ward 3 is already a problem and other Wards will be joining them soon.

Because it just is not that complicated a thing to do. The politics are complicated. Construction and freshening up a building are really not. Modernizing an operating school is harder because it requires more planning and a swing space. Cleaning up an empty building is much easier.

And the construction and freshening up would be free? While swing space would not be an issue, funds still would be. There are schools that are falling apart because they have been touched in decades. There are schools, outside of Ward 3, that are overcrowded that have been fighting for years. You are right, it is the politics that takes time and that will still be the case with currently empty buildings.

The other question I would ask is where are these buildings? If they are not in areas where the projected growth is, then they aren't really that helpful.

Meyer is in Pleasant Plains, so it's in the sweet spot of a bunch of red circles. It's being used as swing space for Hyde-Addison right now, which wouldn't be possible if it were truly in unsafe condition. I'm not sure about others, but with boundary and feeder adjustments, could work. Middle and high schools don't have to be extremely close to all of their students. For example, if they re-opened Emery as a middle school, it could take kids from NoMa and take the load off Stuart-Hobson. Spingarn could reopen and relieve pressure on Eastern. Kids in the Stadium and Eastern Market area have shown a willingness to commute to Stokes East End, and would likely do so for the replication of Washington Latin if it were near a metro station EOTR. Those are just a few examples.

Nobody thinks it would be free, but if there are enough kids that implies an increase in the tax base as well. Also, DCPS spends money every single year to renovate and re-open schools. Van Ness, Phelps, Wells Middle, Brookland Middle, McKinley Middle, are just a few recent examples. They have found the money every year and they can use that same line of the budget for new schools. What is currently being spent on Coolidge and Wells right now, for example, can be shifted to other projects.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nick, did you even add in the vacant sites? And what about the sites that are owned by DCPS and not officially vacant but in use as offices or swing space (Emery, Meyer, Bruce for example). Then there are buildings used by charters that closed, such as City Arts in Edgewood, that DCPS could potentially buy or rent. And office buildings and warehouses can also be purchased and converted. Yes city real estate is expensive, but if population grows enough, they will have the tax base to support it.

A lot of your "red" schools can cut back PK3 and PK4 as well and get 100-ish seats from that.

Nick here.

I only used what is in the Master Facilities Plan. (see https://dme.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dme/publication/attachments/DC_MFP_2019_Feb%2021_Final_compressed.pdf ). The capacities I listed for schools are what is listed in the plan. That includes all of the planned capital spending, which is listed in Appendix A.14. The spending plan goes through 2024, so presumably there will be more between 2024 and 2027. The spending plan spends over $1.6 billion over the next six years, but only adds a few hundred seats of capacity, most of the spending is upgrading but not expanding existing schools.

DCPS and DC in general is limited in its ability to do capital spending. The city has to finance capital spending through debt, and it has to stay within a very tight debt cap. We're still paying off a billion-dollar convention center and a billion-dollar baseball stadium, which means there is very little room under the cap. Each year we can only spend what got freed up that year, either from old debt being paid off or the city economy growing. This is why modernizations are spread out over so many years, the city doesn't have the ability to spend a lot of money all at once.

See, Nick, their "plan" is not the full universe of what is possible. It's only what they're willing to sort of commit to in public, and a lot of it is made-up numbers and outright lies. They can come up with other options if they try.

I'm still unclear on how you think you can force an all-lottery system on a city that rejected it once, in the face of San Francisco's experience. You really think your wealthy neighbors will accept a placement east of the park?

[Anonymous]

Maybe Key Elementary and all of Palisades should move to Ward 2 and go to Francis/SWW Middle School or Cardozo.

[Anonymous]

It seems like kicking out Key or Lafayette is the easier solution, rather than forcing a no-boundary plan on the whole city.

Sorry Ward 3 is overcrowded but I like having an IB school. I've been volunteering since I first got pregnant, because I want our neighborhood to have a good school of right and get out from under this horrible, inequitable, stressful lottery. Nobody would volunteer at a school they probably won't get into.

[Anonymous]

Re-open Spingarn High as a DCPS magnet or application high school. Students can take the street car to school.