Literally zero positive movement at Brent/Peabody

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How do you know that PK3-4 classes are composed of IB or OOB? The myschoolsdc page doesn't specify.

The 4s class is large with more than half of the IB kids not getting in (according to last year's lottery results). They announced the lottery totals for this year's 3s at a PTA meeting a few months back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for sharing. When I predicted that the rising 3s would be a significantly smaller group than the rising 4s on a thread a few months ago, mainly due to contracting real estate inventory in the Brent District from around 2012 (many more young families staying, meaning less turnover in row houses, with almost every 3-bedroom house for sale in the Brent District going for a million plus), I met a lot of resistance. Looks like the very iffy middle and high school feeder situations, and fast-rising real estate prices and rents, are emerging as constraints to in-boundary K enrollment growth. I can't see Brent dropping a K class because the eligible in-boundary group is contracting over time, so there should be more OOB lottery spots for K in the coming years.

You could have said the same thing 2 years ago with the current rising K group. But then another huge group was right behind it. The problem is no one knows. The school, DCPS, the city, etc isn't looking at this. The problem with looking at real estate is people move in years before they have kids (our kids came along 6 and 8 years after we moved in, so they didn't show up to Brent until after we had been in our house 10 years). Not to mention the siblings that keep popping up. We know 8 IB siblings between the ages of 12 and 24 months.

If DC would track these things, it would all be much easier.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for sharing. When I predicted that the rising 3s would be a significantly smaller group than the rising 4s on a thread a few months ago, mainly due to contracting real estate inventory in the Brent District from around 2012 (many more young families staying, meaning less turnover in row houses, with almost every 3-bedroom house for sale in the Brent District going for a million plus), I met a lot of resistance. Looks like the very iffy middle and high school feeder situations, and fast-rising real estate prices and rents, are emerging as constraints to in-boundary K enrollment growth. I can't see Brent dropping a K class because the eligible in-boundary group is contracting over time, so there should be more OOB lottery spots for K in the coming years.

You could have said the same thing 2 years ago with the current rising K group. But then another huge group was right behind it. The problem is no one knows. The school, DCPS, the city, etc isn't looking at this. The problem with looking at real estate is people move in years before they have kids (our kids came along 6 and 8 years after we moved in, so they didn't show up to Brent until after we had been in our house 10 years). Not to mention the siblings that keep popping up. We know 8 IB siblings between the ages of 12 and 24 months.

If DC would track these things, it would all be much easier.

You obviously haven't been following the DC Caller thread.

DC DOES NOT CARE. The majority of employees live in Ward 9. Reporting residency cheating doesn't matter. The idea that like-minded families on the Hill should be able to self-segregate into high-performing schools also doesn't matter. Brent is an aberration which nobody in municipal government wants to repeat.

DC schools exist for the municipal employees who live in Ward 9. They boast about it openly. They run for PTA offices and invite schoolchildren to their homes (in Maryland). If you want DC schools to serve DC students with any kind of high-expectation curriculum, you have three choices: Ward 3, private school, or Yu Ying/LAMB/other-highly-regarded-charter.

That's all, folks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for sharing. When I predicted that the rising 3s would be a significantly smaller group than the rising 4s on a thread a few months ago, mainly due to contracting real estate inventory in the Brent District from around 2012 (many more young families staying, meaning less turnover in row houses, with almost every 3-bedroom house for sale in the Brent District going for a million plus), I met a lot of resistance. Looks like the very iffy middle and high school feeder situations, and fast-rising real estate prices and rents, are emerging as constraints to in-boundary K enrollment growth. I can't see Brent dropping a K class because the eligible in-boundary group is contracting over time, so there should be more OOB lottery spots for K in the coming years.

You could have said the same thing 2 years ago with the current rising K group. But then another huge group was right behind it. The problem is no one knows. The school, DCPS, the city, etc isn't looking at this. The problem with looking at real estate is people move in years before they have kids (our kids came along 6 and 8 years after we moved in, so they didn't show up to Brent until after we had been in our house 10 years). Not to mention the siblings that keep popping up. We know 8 IB siblings between the ages of 12 and 24 months.

If DC would track these things, it would all be much easier.

Agreed. I am the PP who said the cohort of 3s is approximately 50 as of now (and I know this because my child is in that cohort). I disagree that this smaller class size is indicative of a change in the real estate/demographics. I think there are bumper years and smaller years. I'm quite sure that the 2s is going to be a very big group.

[Anonymous]

Why are you quite sure that the 2s is going to be large? What are you basing this on?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for sharing. When I predicted that the rising 3s would be a significantly smaller group than the rising 4s on a thread a few months ago, mainly due to contracting real estate inventory in the Brent District from around 2012 (many more young families staying, meaning less turnover in row houses, with almost every 3-bedroom house for sale in the Brent District going for a million plus), I met a lot of resistance. Looks like the very iffy middle and high school feeder situations, and fast-rising real estate prices and rents, are emerging as constraints to in-boundary K enrollment growth. I can't see Brent dropping a K class because the eligible in-boundary group is contracting over time, so there should be more OOB lottery spots for K in the coming years.

You could have said the same thing 2 years ago with the current rising K group. But then another huge group was right behind it. The problem is no one knows. The school, DCPS, the city, etc isn't looking at this. The problem with looking at real estate is people move in years before they have kids (our kids came along 6 and 8 years after we moved in, so they didn't show up to Brent until after we had been in our house 10 years). Not to mention the siblings that keep popping up. We know 8 IB siblings between the ages of 12 and 24 months.

If DC would track these things, it would all be much easier.

You obviously haven't been following the DC Caller thread.

DC DOES NOT CARE. The majority of employees live in Ward 9. Reporting residency cheating doesn't matter. The idea that like-minded families on the Hill should be able to self-segregate into high-performing schools also doesn't matter. Brent is an aberration which nobody in municipal government wants to repeat.

DC schools exist for the municipal employees who live in Ward 9. They boast about it openly. They run for PTA offices and invite schoolchildren to their homes (in Maryland). If you want DC schools to serve DC students with any kind of high-expectation curriculum, you have three choices: Ward 3, private school, or Yu Ying/LAMB/other-highly-regarded-charter.

That's all, folks.

This may be true, but then nobody can turn back demographic sea change in a good third of the city. As a result, in the next five to ten years, you're going to see any number of DCPS and DCPC schools--elementary, middle and high schools--become a lot whiter/higher SES. On and around the Hill, I picture Van Ness' demographics closely resembling Brent's within six or eight years, along with those of Ludlow-Taylor. Maury will be there in half that time. I also see Amidon, with its excellent facilities and strong PTA, becoming steadily more diverse, and possibly Tyler and/or Payne. If DCPS wants to arrest self-segregation in elementary schools via red hot real estate and rental markets, the city will need a mayor willing to fight tooth and nail to scrap school boundaries (also known as political suicide).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for sharing. When I predicted that the rising 3s would be a significantly smaller group than the rising 4s on a thread a few months ago, mainly due to contracting real estate inventory in the Brent District from around 2012 (many more young families staying, meaning less turnover in row houses, with almost every 3-bedroom house for sale in the Brent District going for a million plus), I met a lot of resistance. Looks like the very iffy middle and high school feeder situations, and fast-rising real estate prices and rents, are emerging as constraints to in-boundary K enrollment growth. I can't see Brent dropping a K class because the eligible in-boundary group is contracting over time, so there should be more OOB lottery spots for K in the coming years.

You could have said the same thing 2 years ago with the current rising K group. But then another huge group was right behind it. The problem is no one knows. The school, DCPS, the city, etc isn't looking at this. The problem with looking at real estate is people move in years before they have kids (our kids came along 6 and 8 years after we moved in, so they didn't show up to Brent until after we had been in our house 10 years). Not to mention the siblings that keep popping up. We know 8 IB siblings between the ages of 12 and 24 months.

If DC would track these things, it would all be much easier.

You obviously haven't been following the DC Caller thread.

DC DOES NOT CARE. The majority of employees live in Ward 9. Reporting residency cheating doesn't matter. The idea that like-minded families on the Hill should be able to self-segregate into high-performing schools also doesn't matter. Brent is an aberration which nobody in municipal government wants to repeat.

DC schools exist for the municipal employees who live in Ward 9. They boast about it openly. They run for PTA offices and invite schoolchildren to their homes (in Maryland). If you want DC schools to serve DC students with any kind of high-expectation curriculum, you have three choices: Ward 3, private school, or Yu Ying/LAMB/other-highly-regarded-charter.

That's all, folks.

This may be true, but then nobody can turn back demographic sea change in a good third of the city. As a result, in the next five to ten years, you're going to see any number of DCPS and DCPC schools--elementary, middle and high schools--become a lot whiter/higher SES. On and around the Hill, I picture Van Ness' demographics closely resembling Brent's within six or eight years, along with those of Ludlow-Taylor. Maury will be there in half that time. I also see Amidon, with its excellent facilities and strong PTA, becoming steadily more diverse, and possibly Tyler and/or Payne. If DCPS wants to arrest self-segregation in elementary schools via red hot real estate and rental markets, the city will need a mayor willing to fight tooth and nail to scrap school boundaries (also known as political suicide).

I agree with basically all of the point above (except for the VN demo, it will look more like the overall city than Brent but there are several high SES families there). The problem is the city leadership doesn't need Ward 6. She barely won the Ward last time. However if she lost all 26,000 votes in Ward 6, she still would have won by 10,000 votes.

Maybe in 5 years the landscape will have shifted enough where people have had enough and the elected leaders get it. However right now they just don't care about these issues because "those families will just leave anyways." Right now the people that seem to care about education (Grosso and Allen for example) dont seem care about this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why are you quite sure that the 2s is going to be large? What are you basing this on?

The large number of 2s (mostly siblings) in there neighborhood. Also, there is a tendency to space children 2-3 years apart so it seems that the bumper year of rising 4s has a large cohort of baby siblings. I may be wrong but this is my two cents based on my own observations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for sharing. When I predicted that the rising 3s would be a significantly smaller group than the rising 4s on a thread a few months ago, mainly due to contracting real estate inventory in the Brent District from around 2012 (many more young families staying, meaning less turnover in row houses, with almost every 3-bedroom house for sale in the Brent District going for a million plus), I met a lot of resistance. Looks like the very iffy middle and high school feeder situations, and fast-rising real estate prices and rents, are emerging as constraints to in-boundary K enrollment growth. I can't see Brent dropping a K class because the eligible in-boundary group is contracting over time, so there should be more OOB lottery spots for K in the coming years.

You could have said the same thing 2 years ago with the current rising K group. But then another huge group was right behind it. The problem is no one knows. The school, DCPS, the city, etc isn't looking at this. The problem with looking at real estate is people move in years before they have kids (our kids came along 6 and 8 years after we moved in, so they didn't show up to Brent until after we had been in our house 10 years). Not to mention the siblings that keep popping up. We know 8 IB siblings between the ages of 12 and 24 months.

If DC would track these things, it would all be much easier.

You obviously haven't been following the DC Caller thread.

DC DOES NOT CARE. The majority of employees live in Ward 9. Reporting residency cheating doesn't matter. The idea that like-minded families on the Hill should be able to self-segregate into high-performing schools also doesn't matter. Brent is an aberration which nobody in municipal government wants to repeat.

DC schools exist for the municipal employees who live in Ward 9. They boast about it openly. They run for PTA offices and invite schoolchildren to their homes (in Maryland). If you want DC schools to serve DC students with any kind of high-expectation curriculum, you have three choices: Ward 3, private school, or Yu Ying/LAMB/other-highly-regarded-charter.

That's all, folks.

This may be true, but then nobody can turn back demographic sea change in a good third of the city. As a result, in the next five to ten years, you're going to see any number of DCPS and DCPC schools--elementary, middle and high schools--become a lot whiter/higher SES. On and around the Hill, I picture Van Ness' demographics closely resembling Brent's within six or eight years, along with those of Ludlow-Taylor. Maury will be there in half that time. I also see Amidon, with its excellent facilities and strong PTA, becoming steadily more diverse, and possibly Tyler and/or Payne. If DCPS wants to arrest self-segregation in elementary schools via red hot real estate and rental markets, the city will need a mayor willing to fight tooth and nail to scrap school boundaries (also known as political suicide).

I agree with basically all of the point above (except for the VN demo, it will look more like the overall city than Brent but there are several high SES families there). The problem is the city leadership doesn't need Ward 6. She barely won the Ward last time. However if she lost all 26,000 votes in Ward 6, she still would have won by 10,000 votes.

Maybe in 5 years the landscape will have shifted enough where people have had enough and the elected leaders get it. However right now they just don't care about these issues because "those families will just leave anyways." Right now the people that seem to care about education (Grosso and Allen for example) dont seem care about this.

How much is the ward 6 population growing with all the development near the Navy Yard and in SW? If it grows enough it may not be possible to ignore in future elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for sharing. When I predicted that the rising 3s would be a significantly smaller group than the rising 4s on a thread a few months ago, mainly due to contracting real estate inventory in the Brent District from around 2012 (many more young families staying, meaning less turnover in row houses, with almost every 3-bedroom house for sale in the Brent District going for a million plus), I met a lot of resistance. Looks like the very iffy middle and high school feeder situations, and fast-rising real estate prices and rents, are emerging as constraints to in-boundary K enrollment growth. I can't see Brent dropping a K class because the eligible in-boundary group is contracting over time, so there should be more OOB lottery spots for K in the coming years.

You could have said the same thing 2 years ago with the current rising K group. But then another huge group was right behind it. The problem is no one knows. The school, DCPS, the city, etc isn't looking at this. The problem with looking at real estate is people move in years before they have kids (our kids came along 6 and 8 years after we moved in, so they didn't show up to Brent until after we had been in our house 10 years). Not to mention the siblings that keep popping up. We know 8 IB siblings between the ages of 12 and 24 months.

If DC would track these things, it would all be much easier.

You obviously haven't been following the DC Caller thread.

DC DOES NOT CARE. The majority of employees live in Ward 9. Reporting residency cheating doesn't matter. The idea that like-minded families on the Hill should be able to self-segregate into high-performing schools also doesn't matter. Brent is an aberration which nobody in municipal government wants to repeat.

DC schools exist for the municipal employees who live in Ward 9. They boast about it openly. They run for PTA offices and invite schoolchildren to their homes (in Maryland). If you want DC schools to serve DC students with any kind of high-expectation curriculum, you have three choices: Ward 3, private school, or Yu Ying/LAMB/other-highly-regarded-charter.

That's all, folks.

This may be true, but then nobody can turn back demographic sea change in a good third of the city. As a result, in the next five to ten years, you're going to see any number of DCPS and DCPC schools--elementary, middle and high schools--become a lot whiter/higher SES. On and around the Hill, I picture Van Ness' demographics closely resembling Brent's within six or eight years, along with those of Ludlow-Taylor. Maury will be there in half that time. I also see Amidon, with its excellent facilities and strong PTA, becoming steadily more diverse, and possibly Tyler and/or Payne. If DCPS wants to arrest self-segregation in elementary schools via red hot real estate and rental markets, the city will need a mayor willing to fight tooth and nail to scrap school boundaries (also known as political suicide).

I agree with basically all of the point above (except for the VN demo, it will look more like the overall city than Brent but there are several high SES families there). The problem is the city leadership doesn't need Ward 6. She barely won the Ward last time. However if she lost all 26,000 votes in Ward 6, she still would have won by 10,000 votes.

Maybe in 5 years the landscape will have shifted enough where people have had enough and the elected leaders get it. However right now they just don't care about these issues because "those families will just leave anyways." Right now the people that seem to care about education (Grosso and Allen for example) dont seem care about this.

How much is the ward 6 population growing with all the development near the Navy Yard and in SW? If it grows enough it may not be possible to ignore in future elections.

As long as east of the river continues to deliver 75% of the vote in each Ward I don't think it will be an issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are you quite sure that the 2s is going to be large? What are you basing this on?

The large number of 2s (mostly siblings) in there neighborhood. Also, there is a tendency to space children 2-3 years apart so it seems that the bumper year of rising 4s has a large cohort of baby siblings. I may be wrong but this is my two cents based on my own observations.

You're not wrong. The 4's is a huge cohort and the 2's (siblings of the 4's) is also quite large. Waitlists on 2 year old programs are a lot longer this year than they were last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How do you know that PK3-4 classes are composed of IB or OOB? The myschoolsdc page doesn't specify.

PK classes are almost exclusively IB at Brent, the exceptions being kids living at Bolling and SpEd placements. Same thing at Peabody or Maury.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you know that PK3-4 classes are composed of IB or OOB? The myschoolsdc page doesn't specify.

PK classes are almost exclusively IB at Brent, the exceptions being kids living at Bolling and SpEd placements. Same thing at Peabody or Maury.

Are kids living at Bolling IB for Brent? If so that's news to me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you know that PK3-4 classes are composed of IB or OOB? The myschoolsdc page doesn't specify.

PK classes are almost exclusively IB at Brent, the exceptions being kids living at Bolling and SpEd placements. Same thing at Peabody or Maury.

My kid was in PK4 at Peabody last year and there were lots of OOB kids in the class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you know that PK3-4 classes are composed of IB or OOB? The myschoolsdc page doesn't specify.

PK classes are almost exclusively IB at Brent, the exceptions being kids living at Bolling and SpEd placements. Same thing at Peabody or Maury.

My kid was in PK4 at Peabody last year and there were lots of OOB kids in the class.

My kid was in PK4 at Peabody last year, as well. While I didn't go around asking whether kids were inbound or not, off-hand I can only think of two kids who were OOB, and they both had sibling preference.

I think it's safe to say that PK4 at Peabody is primarily (but not exclusively) inbound.