Families leaving ACPS

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think those stats are right, I think those are the.TOTAL number of kids per grade, not any specific demographic.....Maybe the way the dashboard spit out numbers it looked like that or something (I still can't get in for whatever reason)

How about that, I actually got into the app! So here are the numbers, again for the white demographic (I can see how the previous poster gave the overall numbers, by the way- the app is very clunky and less than clear).

The trend seems to be similar to the total grade enrollments/fall off that the previous poster gave. From my quick read, there is usually a drop off, sometimes a slight one, sometimes more (though not half, like someone suggested), and recent classes show a lower drop off (like the current third graders tend to show a smaller drop off from first enrollment. Though unlike some people who like to twist statistics, I admit I don't know if that is because people are, in fact sticking with the school more or if more will leave in grade 4/5 (unfortunately we only have four years of data to look back on, and no crystal ball for the current 4th and 3rd graders)

GM:

Current white 5th graders: 46
As 4th graders: 48
As 3rd: 54
As 2nd: 63

Current white 4th graders: 37
As 3rd: 39
As 2nd:41
As 1st: 44

Current white 3rd graders: 60
As 2nd: 60
As 1st: 57
As K: 62

Maury
Current white 5th graders: 39
As 4th graders: 44
As 3rd: 46
As 2nd: 48

Current white 4th graders: 50
As 3rd: 48
As 2nd: 49
As 1st: 54

Current white 3rd graders: 45
As 2nd: 46
As 1st: 51
As K: 53

MacArthur
Current white 5th graders: 61
As 4th graders: 59
As 3rd: 63
As 2nd: 65

Current white 4th graders: 57
As 3rd: 64
As 2nd: 68
As 1st: 74

Current white 3rd graders: 51
As 2nd: 56
As 1st: 61
As K: 62

So there is drop off, but I wouldn't call this the flight of all the rich white kids like some have suggested.

GM change: -27% from second to fifth
Maury change: -19% from second to fifth
McArthur change: -23% from second to fourth

That's pretty dramatic.

Funny how you cherry pick the MacArthur fourth grader numbers because the fifth grade numbers don't support your "pretty dramatic" bias.

Note, the MacArthur 5th change, from second to fifth- the numbers you pick for the other schools- is -6%

Now if I wanted to cherry pick some other small numbers like you seem to like to cherry pick big ones, I would note that

Maury change for fourth graders, from first, is -7%
Mason change for third graders, from K, is -3%. Not "pretty dramatic".

So you throw out some big changes, I threw out some small ones.

[Anonymous]

You need to look at each grade's percentages, not raw numbers. It's possible enrollment of other demographics (not just white) also decreased in upper grades. So, the percentage change may not be as high as you think just from looking at total number of white students per grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think those stats are right, I think those are the.TOTAL number of kids per grade, not any specific demographic.....Maybe the way the dashboard spit out numbers it looked like that or something (I still can't get in for whatever reason)

How about that, I actually got into the app! So here are the numbers, again for the white demographic (I can see how the previous poster gave the overall numbers, by the way- the app is very clunky and less than clear).

The trend seems to be similar to the total grade enrollments/fall off that the previous poster gave. From my quick read, there is usually a drop off, sometimes a slight one, sometimes more (though not half, like someone suggested), and recent classes show a lower drop off (like the current third graders tend to show a smaller drop off from first enrollment. Though unlike some people who like to twist statistics, I admit I don't know if that is because people are, in fact sticking with the school more or if more will leave in grade 4/5 (unfortunately we only have four years of data to look back on, and no crystal ball for the current 4th and 3rd graders)

GM:

Current white 5th graders: 46
As 4th graders: 48
As 3rd: 54
As 2nd: 63

Current white 4th graders: 37
As 3rd: 39
As 2nd:41
As 1st: 44

Current white 3rd graders: 60
As 2nd: 60
As 1st: 57
As K: 62

Maury
Current white 5th graders: 39
As 4th graders: 44
As 3rd: 46
As 2nd: 48

Current white 4th graders: 50
As 3rd: 48
As 2nd: 49
As 1st: 54

Current white 3rd graders: 45
As 2nd: 46
As 1st: 51
As K: 53

MacArthur
Current white 5th graders: 61
As 4th graders: 59
As 3rd: 63
As 2nd: 65

Current white 4th graders: 57
As 3rd: 64
As 2nd: 68
As 1st: 74

Current white 3rd graders: 51
As 2nd: 56
As 1st: 61
As K: 62

So there is drop off, but I wouldn't call this the flight of all the rich white kids like some have suggested.

GM change: -27% from second to fifth
Maury change: -19% from second to fifth
McArthur change: -23% from second to fourth

That's pretty dramatic.

Funny how you cherry pick the MacArthur fourth grader numbers because the fifth grade numbers don't support your "pretty dramatic" bias.

Note, the MacArthur 5th change, from second to fifth- the numbers you pick for the other schools- is -6%

Now if I wanted to cherry pick some other small numbers like you seem to like to cherry pick big ones, I would note that

Maury change for fourth graders, from first, is -7%
Mason change for third graders, from K, is -3%. Not "pretty dramatic".

So you throw out some big changes, I threw out some small ones.

No, not really. There's thing called "outlier." Look it up.

If you really wanted data, you'd have to pull the trend for each of the last 20 years or so of fifth grade classes.

[Anonymous]

New to the conversation, but there's no way to measure why families leave, right? I know from my DD's class, at least 5 families left for reasons totally unrelated to school quality. Assuming school quality is the reason wouldn't be right, given how many military and FS families in this area.

[Anonymous]

Now there are more white kids in ACPS, how does this affect resources for students who need it? Are white families taking resources from kids who really need it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New to the conversation, but there's no way to measure why families leave, right? I know from my DD's class, at least 5 families left for reasons totally unrelated to school quality. Assuming school quality is the reason wouldn't be right, given how many military and FS families in this area.

Statistically speaking, however, you'd expect the demographics to remain roughly the same.