Families leaving ACPS
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Anonymous
In retrospect, The Dashboard gives out more than ACPS wants us to see, so they dis-enabled it!  #Transparency
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Anonymous
You know, I wouldn't doubt it 
I checked again and it's still not working. It will be interesting to see if the info available differs once it's up again. One stat I noticed was for last school year, for George Mason, I seem to recall it showed there were 100+ white K students but less than half that in 5th grade. |
Anonymous
But that doesn't tell you anything, really. That is the demographic make-up of two different class years which could be different for a variety of reasons including demographic make up of the zone and "baby boom" years. What would tell you something is following one class year over time. So for this year's 5th grade class, look at the data for their 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st (I think that is as far back as the data went, but it might have gone to their K year) and see how the composition of the class changes. It could be that you see white flight, it could be that you don't. Do the same for the other grade years too. Once the tool comes back online, I want to see what we can see from the transition to middle -- adding up the demo numbers for last year's 5th graders that feed into GW and comparing them to the demo numbers for this year's sixth grade. |
Anonymous
So I was finally able to get on, and your analysis is skewed, PP - at GM last year, there were 103 White KG students and 74 White 5th Grade students. So yes, a difference - but (a) not "less than half", and remember, you need to take into account the number of students when they originally enrolled. Obviously, enrollment is going up over time - when you look at the fifth grade class over the past several years the population is much more stable: 2015-16 5th grade - 74 white students 2014-15 same class (4th grade that year) - 74 2013-2014 same class (3rd grade that year) - 78 2012-2013 same class (2nd grade that year - 87 So George Mason's 5th grade class had 87 white students when that class was 2nd graders, now has 74. A drop of, yes, but I don't think it is massive. Also from GM: Current 4th graders - 69 white students same class last year (when 3rd graders) - 69 white students same class year before (when 2nd graders) - 70 white students same class year before (when 1st graders) - 73 white students Current 3rd graders - 103 white students same class last year (when 2nd graders) - 110 white students same class year before (when 1st graders) - 102 white students same class year before (when Kg) - 108 white students. More recent populations seem more stable year over year, in other words. Which supports what a PP was saying that more people are sticking with the schools (my kids are too little for me to have a personal experience with the full elementary school experience, so can't personally speak to that). Looking at some of the other better ACPS schools, there seems to be similar continuity in white student enrollment: (by the way, I'm focusing on the "white" metric because that is the one you threw out, I'm not making any statement on whether I think "white" is the proxy for "good kids") Maury Current 5th graders - 65 white students same class last year (when 4th graders) - 66 same class year before (when 3rd graders) - 67 same class year before (when 2nd graders) 64 Current 4th graders - 74 white students same class last year (when 3rd graders) - 79 same class year before (when 2nd graders) 83 same class year before (when 1st graders) - 85 Current 3rd graders - 84 white students same class last year (when 2nd graders - 84 same class year before (when 1st graders) - 93 same class year before (when KG) - 91 MacArthur Current 5th graders - 109 white students same class year before (when 4th graders) - 117 same class year before (when 3rd graders) - 115 same class year before (when 2nd graders) - 107 Current 4th graders - 112 white students same class year before (when 3rd graders) - 111 same class year before (when 2nd graders) 115 same class year before (when 1st graders) - 129 Current 3rd graders - 114 white students same class year before (when 2nd graders) - 119 same class year before (when 1st graders) - 132 same class year before (when KG) - 127 These statistics hardly seem to support the "all the rich white kids flee ACPS" suggestions some have made above. Things seem much closer to the PP who suggested that there is some shrinkage, but minor. |
Anonymous
What about the numbers of AA and Hispanic children in these schools? What are the stats for those? |
Anonymous
Thank you for this. There are so many assumptions/half truths etc. on this forum. |
Anonymous
Well, you can probably go to the Dashboard and look those stats up yourself. I presume the poster who gave all that info was focused on the single demographic since that is the one that had been focused on in earlier posts suggesting that rich/white kids flee ACPS, that other demographics don't, that the 5th grade class at a certain school had half as many white children as the K class, etc. But from glancing at the information above, the "rich white families leave ACPS" thing doesn't appear to be a very widespread phenomenon in reality... |
Anonymous
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Common Sense people
Elementary is smaller so you can go to a good school away from lower SES people People leave at middle and definenlty by high school when everyone is in the same school |
Anonymous
| And how many white sixth graders at GW then? |
Anonymous
| I don't think those stats are right, I think those are the.TOTAL number of kids per grade, not any specific demographic.....Maybe the way the dashboard spit out numbers it looked like that or something (I still can't get in for whatever reason) |
Anonymous
Agreed. I have a spreadsheet with the 2014 and 2015 numbers, and the total number of white kids enrolled at Maury in 2015 was 254 (out of 442). If you divide 442 by 6, it's 74--or about the class size listed below. |
Anonymous
How about that, I actually got into the app! So here are the numbers, again for the white demographic (I can see how the previous poster gave the overall numbers, by the way- the app is very clunky and less than clear). The trend seems to be similar to the total grade enrollments/fall off that the previous poster gave. From my quick read, there is usually a drop off, sometimes a slight one, sometimes more (though not half, like someone suggested), and recent classes show a lower drop off (like the current third graders tend to show a smaller drop off from first enrollment. Though unlike some people who like to twist statistics, I admit I don't know if that is because people are, in fact sticking with the school more or if more will leave in grade 4/5 (unfortunately we only have four years of data to look back on, and no crystal ball for the current 4th and 3rd graders) GM: Current white 5th graders: 46 As 4th graders: 48 As 3rd: 54 As 2nd: 63 Current white 4th graders: 37 As 3rd: 39 As 2nd:41 As 1st: 44 Current white 3rd graders: 60 As 2nd: 60 As 1st: 57 As K: 62 Maury Current white 5th graders: 39 As 4th graders: 44 As 3rd: 46 As 2nd: 48 Current white 4th graders: 50 As 3rd: 48 As 2nd: 49 As 1st: 54 Current white 3rd graders: 45 As 2nd: 46 As 1st: 51 As K: 53 MacArthur Current white 5th graders: 61 As 4th graders: 59 As 3rd: 63 As 2nd: 65 Current white 4th graders: 57 As 3rd: 64 As 2nd: 68 As 1st: 74 Current white 3rd graders: 51 As 2nd: 56 As 1st: 61 As K: 62 So there is drop off, but I wouldn't call this the flight of all the rich white kids like some have suggested. |
Anonymous
Indeed, a slow trickle through elementary that becomes a full-on flood at the middle school and high school years. |
Anonymous
Good luck. FCPS is going downhill fast. We are leaving for private. |
Anonymous
GM change: -27% from second to fifth Maury change: -19% from second to fifth McArthur change: -23% from second to fourth That's pretty dramatic. |