How long before Higher Ed collapses due to AI?

[Anonymous]

Better question seems to be how long until the AI bubble bursts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree there needs to be some controls around the use of AI. At the same time, from what I have heard and read, companies are just pointing towards AI for layoffs when in reality it is not true so they don't get sued. We know AI is not to a point yet to cause this kind of layoffs. All the AI stuff we are seeing in doing work for clients are all still in the way early stages doing proof of concepts. I think the main reason for layoffs is to cut costs rather than efficiencies obtained by AI

This. You only need to look at the jobs data to see that there are industries primed for AI disruption that are still adding tons of jobs (healthcare, securities/investment) and others that are supposedly insulated that are shedding them (manufacturing, warehousing, hotels/accommodation, real estate/leasing). And everything in between. There is no pattern to it.

[Anonymous]

Successful schools and students must figure out how to ride the AI wave. We’re in a time of unprecedented disruption. There will be winners and losers. I can certainly see the direction in my field, investments. I’m an old guy but I’m using AI to do as much as possible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP is the same poster who asked 5 years ago if crypto would cause all banking to collapse; and if self-driving cars would cause the auto industry to collapse. How's that going?

I work for a bank regulator. Trust me when I say this, banks are worried!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/crypto-s-win-on-landmark-legislation-reshapes-rivalry-with-banks

But crypto has been around in a big way for 10+ years. Every year, we hear how it's going to take over the world, and it hasn't.

Yes, your link involves a potential US regulatory change, but other countries have always had looser rules. Some countries even adopted crypto as one of their official currencies (El Salvador). Yet, crypto has not done all these things people fear it will do, like get rid of banks; alleviate the need for USD/EUR/etc, and so on.

And how about self-driving cars? Just 5 years ago, people were saying maybe we won't even need to build houses with garages and driveways as we'll just summon a car on demand and it'll drive to us and drive us around. What happened to that?

In other words, every couple years, we hear about some "this will change everything" technology. Most do have some effect, especially at the fringes, but they have never really brought down major industries like higher ed, and I don't think they will now either.

Crypto is still a novelty in the big picture. It will be gutted by the regulatory authorities as if it ever seriously threatens a major sovereign currency. It is pretty much illegal in China. Cause it could be used to flow money out of the country. People will both make and lose a lot of money but in the end it’s nothing of substance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP is the same poster who asked 5 years ago if crypto would cause all banking to collapse; and if self-driving cars would cause the auto industry to collapse. How's that going?

I work for a bank regulator. Trust me when I say this, banks are worried!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/crypto-s-win-on-landmark-legislation-reshapes-rivalry-with-banks

But crypto has been around in a big way for 10+ years. Every year, we hear how it's going to take over the world, and it hasn't.

Yes, your link involves a potential US regulatory change, but other countries have always had looser rules. Some countries even adopted crypto as one of their official currencies (El Salvador). Yet, crypto has not done all these things people fear it will do, like get rid of banks; alleviate the need for USD/EUR/etc, and so on.

And how about self-driving cars? Just 5 years ago, people were saying maybe we won't even need to build houses with garages and driveways as we'll just summon a car on demand and it'll drive to us and drive us around. What happened to that?

In other words, every couple years, we hear about some "this will change everything" technology. Most do have some effect, especially at the fringes, but they have never really brought down major industries like higher ed, and I don't think they will now either.

All I can tell you is that the politicians and the oligarchs have both bought in on crypto in the US. In a big way. That hasn't happened before. I can't even tell you how many times I've heard, "... the US needs to be the king of crypto..." since Jan 2025. I used to think the politicians would keep us safe. After the last two leg actions, I'm pretty convinced they've drank the kool-aid also. So ... we'll see. But this thread isn't about crypto, so let's not hijack it.

That is one small group of grifters who will be gone in two years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It may go the other way, Op. When jobs are hard to get, then people go back to school for master’s degrees or certificates.

Already happening, and law apps are significantly up as well, phD up mildly though a lot are internationals.
MD apps were already highest in 20+ years. MD is a harder path to pivot to.

Medical school applications have dropped every year since 2022 and except for a spike during COVID they have been generally stable for the past 10-15 years. I do expect them to rise but it hasn’t happened yet.

[Anonymous]

AI will generate jobs both on the hardware side and software side. It can’t integrate silo ‘ed legacy systems. Everything would need to be mapped and linked. Innovative ways of using boatloads of data have not even been dreamed of yet alone implemented. This is going to take more people, not less.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It may go the other way, Op. When jobs are hard to get, then people go back to school for master’s degrees or certificates.

Already happening, and law apps are significantly up as well, phD up mildly though a lot are internationals.
MD apps were already highest in 20+ years. MD is a harder path to pivot to.

Medical school applications have dropped every year since 2022 and except for a spike during COVID they have been generally stable for the past 10-15 years. I do expect them to rise but it hasn’t happened yet.

The graduate student loan limits will make a rise difficult. The lifetime cap for government loans for all grad schools has been lowered to $100,000, or $20,000 per year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Never, AI will take over the grunt work, entry level jobs which will change the workforce dynamic but pursuit of academic attainment for higher level jobs and general enrichment will remain.

I don't see the value of credentials from top schools going away anytime soon.

[Anonymous]

The higher ed decline will match the white collar decline. Pretty simple with end result being 50-75% of current higher ed capacity will be gone in 10+- years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Better question seems to be how long until the AI bubble bursts.

+1
I honestly believe AI has been waaaaaaaaay overhyped.

[Anonymous]

AI is being used by Western leadership as a Patsy for their own bad policies in the wake of the Great Recession. In China, the man on the street doesn't fear AI. It's popular there. Why? Because their government has good economic policies and their life is getting better, not worse. They don't need a scapegoat.

Current suckitude being policy driven rather than AI driven doesn't make it less bad. But it does mean it's a chronic decline rather than a sudden cliff.

As to what will happen to higher education? The rich will get richer, just like every other sector. T15-20 universities and T5 LACs will weather the storm or even thrive. As for everyone else, there may be a few surprise winners but generally schools will be circling the drain, albeit more slowly than OP seems to think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Most of these kids are unemployed because they haven’t found the job they thought they would have, not because there are no jobs.
I am fully prepared for the possibility that my son may eventually work as a mechanic or carpenter after finishing at a SLAC.

I think I know you - Sidwell right?

[Anonymous]

Spoken like a true SAHM who knows nothing about AI.

[Anonymous]

30 years ago, your parents were worried e-commerce would take all the jobs. AI will bust, sweetie.