How long before Higher Ed collapses due to AI?

[Anonymous]

Never.

[Anonymous]

The current trend of underperforming schools closing is accelerating and that will continue. Next phase will be large state systems closing underperforming campuses (think Penn State).

College undergrads students peaked in 2010 around 18 mill. Currently 16 mill or so. By 2030 I expect it to start dropping dramatically below 15 mill toward 10 mill.

[Anonymous]

With birth rate falling off a cliff + AI + people understanding that taking out student loans to get low paying jobs (and now maybe not even those) there will definitely be a lower demand for college degrees. Perhaps it goes back to looking something like the previous numbers when women were still mostly SAHM and kids didn't take out such a high % of student loans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hers is that AI poster again. Shows up every once in a while to crowdsource about AI

I'm not the OP, but you're open to this what you want, but sharing some info just in case you're living under a rock:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/jamie-dimon-ai-job-loss.html
https://abc7.com/post/anthropic-ceo-warns-artificial-intelligence-will-eliminate-jobs-what-can-do-protect-career/16586317/
https://www.hbs.edu/bigs/will-artificial-intelligence-improve-or-eliminate-jobs
https://www.amundsendavislaw.com/labor-employment-law-update/ai-in-employment-related-decisions-part-1-big-tech-and-federal-power
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/05/14/prepare-for-an-ai-jobs-apocalypse
https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/ais-job-whats-worker-do

I'll stop here. That's a lot of reading to do, I know. Pro tip: look for the recommendation on each one. It's the same one!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Never, AI will take over the grunt work, entry level jobs which will change the workforce dynamic but pursuit of academic attainment for higher level jobs and general enrichment will remain.

But how will people get the knowledge and skills for higher level jobs without the entry level jobs? That’s the problem many industries are grappling with. Maybe there is an important role for higher education here, to train people much more specifically to be “senior” specialists, because they aren’t going to be able to get that training on the job

[Anonymous]

The thing is, it's not just one job sector that is impacted. What's unique about this, even compared to the internet era, is that this is impacting every entry level job in almost every single area. The types of jobs that are truly safe (for now) are the jobs that require your hands to do some work. And if Elon has his way with that, even those jobs will become obsolete eventually.

[Anonymous]

it is a valid question to ask because private schools and oos schools are expensive.

[Anonymous]

1) Right now universities are falling prey to AI companies and doing things like creating AI agents to teach classes. The value of the type of institutions that go this route will drop. I think it likely second tier RI universities like George Mason go in this direction and see interest fall.

2) The ROI will not be the same as it has in the past. College degree will not equal quick job in your field so students who went to college for that will no longer go. States may decrease funding more because states have bought into the idea that universities create jobs/economic growth, and that is broken. The era of regional state universities is over. Which is very sad. Democracy and social mobility began here (we weren't a democracy before the voting rights act).

3) Kids who really want to learn - my kid is more interested in learning about engineering than in getting an engineering job - will still go to college. And parents who value giving their kids a nice thing - 4 year long summer camp experience - or who themselves value learning for learnings sake will send their kids. Also ones who see it as a status symbol.

So the biggest losers will be second tier sate universities and regional state universities. Add this to the already losers - small, tuition driven nonprofit private universities. Right now I think 60%+ of high school graduates go to college (70% in 2009). It wasn't that long ago that it was 50% (90s). I think the US will hit a floor of about 30. But a lot of bullshit preprofessional programs will go away.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:With birth rate falling off a cliff + AI + people understanding that taking out student loans to get low paying jobs (and now maybe not even those) there will definitely be a lower demand for college degrees. Perhaps it goes back to looking something like the previous numbers when women were still mostly SAHM and kids didn't take out such a high % of student loans.

The birth rate doesn’t fall off a cliff, it slowly declines until it bottoms out at 2012 numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:5 years? I know some top schools will stay around as novelty but overall seems like collapse is imminent. When graduating classes start experiencing increasing double digit unemployment? Seems like that is just around the corner.

Wut

[Anonymous]

What kind of country do we want? All uneducated people who don’t go to college, for what? What is even the point of human life if we don’t have work to support ourselves?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What kind of country do we want? All uneducated people who don’t go to college, for what? What is even the point of human life if we don’t have work to support ourselves?

[Anonymous]

I know what you want to say but in a way uneducated might be the majority already at the moment consider how backward the fundamental education is like now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What kind of country do we want? All uneducated people who don’t go to college, for what? What is even the point of human life if we don’t have work to support ourselves?

The point would be to learn. The leisure to learn! Imagine if we had universal basic income so that we could enroll in college part time our whole lives! Two classes a semester and one in summer. Anything you want! If we didn't have to work we could learn for fun. AI
wouldn't be the death of college it would be the birth or college - we just have to decouple college from the idea of it's purpose of getting a job since ai would be doing our jobs now.

There will always be people interested enough in something that they will want to work at it - and perhaps there will be a incentive structure for that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP is the same poster who asked 5 years ago if crypto would cause all banking to collapse; and if self-driving cars would cause the auto industry to collapse. How's that going?

I work for a bank regulator. Trust me when I say this, banks are worried!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/crypto-s-win-on-landmark-legislation-reshapes-rivalry-with-banks

But crypto has been around in a big way for 10+ years. Every year, we hear how it's going to take over the world, and it hasn't.

Yes, your link involves a potential US regulatory change, but other countries have always had looser rules. Some countries even adopted crypto as one of their official currencies (El Salvador). Yet, crypto has not done all these things people fear it will do, like get rid of banks; alleviate the need for USD/EUR/etc, and so on.

And how about self-driving cars? Just 5 years ago, people were saying maybe we won't even need to build houses with garages and driveways as we'll just summon a car on demand and it'll drive to us and drive us around. What happened to that?

In other words, every couple years, we hear about some "this will change everything" technology. Most do have some effect, especially at the fringes, but they have never really brought down major industries like higher ed, and I don't think they will now either.