Measles confirmed - exposure to thousands in NoVA and DC
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Anonymous
Wow, at least several of these days (the 25th-27th) were immediately following the storm. Hopefully fewer people out and about. |
Anonymous
| Has there been an outbreak from this event? |
Anonymous
| I feel bad for the infected kids who didn't choose to have incompetent morons for parents. |
Anonymous
I feel bad for the innocent babies and immunocompromised kids who didn’t have incompetent selfish morons for parents and are equally at risk. |
Anonymous
That's my question too. This was 16 days ago. Not sure what the incubation period is for measles but seems like after 16 days the risk has mostly passed? |
Anonymous
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You generally don't start to feel sick until 7-14 days after the exposure. It takes another 3-5 days for the rash to appear, starting at the top of the head and travelling down the upper body. It takes longer to identify the breakout. If, say, 5 people were initially infected, and some had mild symptoms only (because of some partial immunity), there is another 7-14 days of latency, and another 3-5 days before the telltale rash (if identified). We just don't know yet. Unfortunately, people shed the virus for 3-4 days before symptoms appear, as it is replicating up. |
Anonymous
| Doesn’t this area have really good vaccination rates? |
Anonymous
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"March for Life Rally" |
Anonymous
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I was off by a decimal point, so I am rewriting the numbers and will ask Jeff to delete.
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Sure, and that's great. It's still an awful situation. We'll just have to see how it shakes out. - The combined population of MD, VA, and DC is roughly 16 million. - There is a combined measles vaccination rate of about 95%, among those eligible. It's based on the percentage of kindergartners who have had two doses, so the 95% is calculated on ~5 year olds, so it doesn't include infants, etc. - So about 0.05*16 million, or about 800,000 people who could be vaccinated are estimated not to be vaccinated, or not fully vaccinated. - Around 5.7% of the US population is under 5 years old. Let's call it 5%. That's another 800,000 not fully vaccinated. - The failure rate for 2 doses of the MMR is (depending on your source) somewhere between 3% and something less than 1%. Let's just call it 1%. That's another 160,000. - There are a lot more people now with waning immunities of various kinds, as COVID infections seem to be wiping out prior immunities, sometimes (much like measles infection does). And you have people on immunosuppressants, or high dose steroids, or with autoimmune deficiencies, etc. Call it another 1%, or 160,000. When you add it all up, even with a really good vaccination rate, there's probably around 1.9 million people in MD, VA, and DC who are not fully protected against measles. That is EXACTLY why herd immunity is so important -- when a spark is lit and hits the right person, it dies out. But if it's the wrong person, or a series of wrong people, there is exponential growth. You just don't know for sure in advance. The odds are still good for individuals -- it's when you look at big groups that the problems show. If 1/100 those who are vulnerable get sick [a bad case scenario], that's about [19,000] -- [because 1,900,000/100 is 19,000]. You would expect: - 1 in 5 hospitalized, or around [3800] people - 1 in 20 cases of pneumonia, or around [950] people The worst complications tend to happen in children. - 1 in 1000 children to get encephalitis (can come with seizures and lasting intellectual disability) - 1 to 3 children in 1000 to die If herd immunity holds, that won't happen. If the virus gets into large pockets of unvaccinated people such as were at the pro-life rally, and those people carry it widespread enough to overwhelm herd immunity, then there will be more of a problem. vax rates - https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/track-measles-outbreak-cases-us-map-rcna198932 population by age - https://www.neilsberg.com/insights/united-states-population-by-age/ measles sequelae - https://www.cdc.gov/measles/signs-symptoms/index.html |
Anonymous
Good to know. But apparently nobody cared if they even knew back then. |
Anonymous
Oh the irony. MAHA morons at their most destructive. |
Anonymous
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No no no no ... you see, measles was almost gone BEFORE the vaccine, which I think is true for reasons, and so the vaccine is irrelevant! The recent decreasing rates of vaccination are correlating with outbreaks like we haven't seen in decades because people who avoid sharp pointy things don't like to use modern plumbing, because they might get poked by a pipe or something. QED. |
Anonymous
had a close miss with one of these, ugh! |
Anonymous
They do except when they don’t. I was vaccinated with the MMR as a child. Tested for rubella in pregnancy—plenty of antibodies. There was a measles outbreak in 2019 that prompted me to ask my PCP to check my titers. Sky-high rubella and mumps immunity—zero measles immunity. I got revaccinated. Hopefully it took. |
Anonymous
Same. |