Reading posts here makes me nervous about March

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been pleased with the process so far. Although I made sure my child applied to a range of schools and I limited the number of reaches. We honed in on strong targets and likely reaches. So far they’ve been admitted to one reach.

Apply wisely. Keep finances in mind. I see so many students applying to schools they have no chances at. I feel for them.

Pleased with the process bc your kid got in one reach. OP isn’t there. Your story might be different if your didn’t have that one reach.

I think people may think by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works. Each school is independent. Applying to any school, no matter how many, with less than 10 percent acceptance means 90 percent chance at every school, the child doesn’t get it.

You're absolutely right that each school is independent, and that at a 10% acceptance school, there's a 90% chance of rejection at that particular school. But independence actually supports applying to multiple reaches, not the opposite!

Here's the key: While each individual school has a 90% rejection rate, the probability of being rejected from all of them decreases as you add more schools.

Think of it like flipping a weighted coin that lands on 'tails' 90% of the time. Each flip is independent, in the sense that the coin doesn't remember what happened before. But if you flip it 10 times instead of once, you're much more likely to get at least one "heads."

The math: If there's a 90% chance of rejection at each school:

Apply to 1 school: 90% chance of no acceptances
Apply to 5 schools: 0.90^5 = 59% chance of no acceptances (so 41% chance of at least one acceptance)
Apply to 10 schools: 0.90^10 = 35% chance of no acceptances (so 65% chance of at least one acceptance)

Independence means each outcome doesn't affect the others; it doesn't mean the outcomes don't add up. Which is why applying to multiple reach schools improves overall odds.

* ofc it isn't like flipping a coin, and while there is some randomness built into the process, the process isn't entirely random. But if we're gonna math it out, it's worth noting how probabilities work.

that said -- the math worth doing here has to do with how and whether to direct finite resources -- there are only so many hours in a day. And life is for living!

This is silly. This assumes that there is "independence" when in fact some of the features of your applicaiton (SAT score, GPA, recommendations) do have an impact on outcome and they are the same for each application.

You're right that it's not how it actually works: There are correlated factors that make a student more likely to get multiple acceptances or multiple rejections than pure randomness would predict. So, very likely, if a student gets into one reach school, they are more likely to get into others; and the opposite is true, as well.

However as a response to PP who says is it NOT true that "by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works," because "Each school is independent" -- the argument holds: Assuming any significant degree of randomness and genuine independence, applying to more reach schools would certainly increase the probability that a student gets into at least one.

Which means that, roughly speaking, an otherwise-qualified kid absolutely should spread applications around in order to increase the chances that they get into at least one. The real question is, how many applications should they spread around? Because even if applying to tons and tons reaches theoretically increases the probability of one acceptance, we all have finite time and resources. So applying to 15 or 20 reaches is not gonna be a very strategic approach for most kids and I wouldn't recommend it.

But 6-8 applications or so? So long as the targets are well calibrated and the applications are well-executed, that will hold for most kids as a smart, strategic approach.

Applied to 22 last cycle.

In to 4 T20s.

[Anonymous]

I’m excited for March actually. DC already in at one reach and I think they’ll get into at least one more based on how interviews are going. Frighteningly it’ll be here before we know it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What is so special about a "reach" school anyway? That other people want to get in? That some provosts and administrators from other universities think it has a great reputation, so they fill out a few forms hastily for the USNWR surveyors? I guess being highly rejective also helps a school climb up the rankings. But how does that help our kids? They want to get into schools and be given a chance, not be rejected.

My DS visited a target that he got into last year: UW Seattle. He was gob-smacked when he finally toured campus, the city, and sat in on a class. "This campus is gorgeous, Mom. This city is so cool. The people are friendly and great. There's so much to do. I love it here." It immediately shot up to his #1 spot.

Chasing fit is more rewarding than chasing prestige.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know what to say, OP. At my kid’s private all the acceptances were SCEA, REA, ED and EA. My kid (top flight) got in nowhere RD and IVY day was a complete bust. Only solace was that his friends experienced the same. Just prepare your kid in advance

Same here. Ivy day was a giant bust at our top private. 95% of the top20 acceptances were early. There was one RD Ivy admit.

+1. Same.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Have been reading some posts recently. Lots of complains about "American college admissions rat race". Reading posts here makes it clear that top schools are unattainable to most kids.

In March, there will be disappointment, a lot of disappointment. One after another. I think DC will be okay with that. I may not be. I am mentally preping myself not to expect much from March. One single reach hit would be good news (DC got in two targets EA). Just one! And that would not be any different from hitting 5 reaches in a row. DC is just attending one.

I’m a ‘28 parent. The kids I know who did not adjust well their first year were the ones who chose their school based on “prestige” and not “fit”. Be careful what you wish for. While you seek the dopamine hit for bragging rights, you may be sending your kid to a place where they are miserable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been pleased with the process so far. Although I made sure my child applied to a range of schools and I limited the number of reaches. We honed in on strong targets and likely reaches. So far they’ve been admitted to one reach.

Apply wisely. Keep finances in mind. I see so many students applying to schools they have no chances at. I feel for them.

Pleased with the process bc your kid got in one reach. OP isn’t there. Your story might be different if your didn’t have that one reach.

I think people may think by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works. Each school is independent. Applying to any school, no matter how many, with less than 10 percent acceptance means 90 percent chance at every school, the child doesn’t get it.

You're absolutely right that each school is independent, and that at a 10% acceptance school, there's a 90% chance of rejection at that particular school. But independence actually supports applying to multiple reaches, not the opposite!

Here's the key: While each individual school has a 90% rejection rate, the probability of being rejected from all of them decreases as you add more schools.

Think of it like flipping a weighted coin that lands on 'tails' 90% of the time. Each flip is independent, in the sense that the coin doesn't remember what happened before. But if you flip it 10 times instead of once, you're much more likely to get at least one "heads."

The math: If there's a 90% chance of rejection at each school:

Apply to 1 school: 90% chance of no acceptances
Apply to 5 schools: 0.90^5 = 59% chance of no acceptances (so 41% chance of at least one acceptance)
Apply to 10 schools: 0.90^10 = 35% chance of no acceptances (so 65% chance of at least one acceptance)

Independence means each outcome doesn't affect the others; it doesn't mean the outcomes don't add up. Which is why applying to multiple reach schools improves overall odds.

* ofc it isn't like flipping a coin, and while there is some randomness built into the process, the process isn't entirely random. But if we're gonna math it out, it's worth noting how probabilities work.

that said -- the math worth doing here has to do with how and whether to direct finite resources -- there are only so many hours in a day. And life is for living!

You need to look at individual high school outcomes. At our private, 40% are admitted to a specific T20 which is my kid's first choice. She was deferred, but our counselor is very confident she will be admitted in March based on her stats and ECs. This school typically has a 9% admission rate overall. DD is already in at a T25, but this T20 is a better fit for her, so we are hopeful!!

[Anonymous]

I told mine after the end of the month (when all his EA should be out) we need to start visiting/narrowing down. Come end of March if he happens to get into one of the super reach he applied to (3) we will reevaluate. Set expectations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I told mine after the end of the month (when all his EA should be out) we need to start visiting/narrowing down. Come end of March if he happens to get into one of the super reach he applied to (3) we will reevaluate. Set expectations.

Exactly us, too. Those teachers are lotteries. Let’s start loving (and visiting) the ones who already love you back!

[Anonymous]

*those reaches