Reading posts here makes me nervous about March

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been pleased with the process so far. Although I made sure my child applied to a range of schools and I limited the number of reaches. We honed in on strong targets and likely reaches. So far they’ve been admitted to one reach.

Apply wisely. Keep finances in mind. I see so many students applying to schools they have no chances at. I feel for them.

Pleased with the process bc your kid got in one reach. OP isn’t there. Your story might be different if your didn’t have that one reach.

I think people may think by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works. Each school is independent. Applying to any school, no matter how many, with less than 10 percent acceptance means 90 percent chance at every school, the child doesn’t get it.

You're absolutely right that each school is independent, and that at a 10% acceptance school, there's a 90% chance of rejection at that particular school. But independence actually supports applying to multiple reaches, not the opposite!

Here's the key: While each individual school has a 90% rejection rate, the probability of being rejected from all of them decreases as you add more schools.

Think of it like flipping a weighted coin that lands on 'tails' 90% of the time. Each flip is independent, in the sense that the coin doesn't remember what happened before. But if you flip it 10 times instead of once, you're much more likely to get at least one "heads."

The math: If there's a 90% chance of rejection at each school:

Apply to 1 school: 90% chance of no acceptances
Apply to 5 schools: 0.90^5 = 59% chance of no acceptances (so 41% chance of at least one acceptance)
Apply to 10 schools: 0.90^10 = 35% chance of no acceptances (so 65% chance of at least one acceptance)

Independence means each outcome doesn't affect the others; it doesn't mean the outcomes don't add up. Which is why applying to multiple reach schools improves overall odds.

* ofc it isn't like flipping a coin, and while there is some randomness built into the process, the process isn't entirely random. But if we're gonna math it out, it's worth noting how probabilities work.

that said -- the math worth doing here has to do with how and whether to direct finite resources -- there are only so many hours in a day. And life is for living!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have been reading some posts recently. Lots of complains about "American college admissions rat race". Reading posts here makes it clear that top schools are unattainable to most kids.

In March, there will be disappointment, a lot of disappointment. One after another. I think DC will be okay with that. I may not be. I am mentally preping myself not to expect much from March. One single reach hit would be good news (DC got in two targets EA). Just one! And that would not be any different from hitting 5 reaches in a row. DC is just attending one.

I would focus on being excited for the 2 targets your DC has already gained admission to in EA - congrats! That is already awesome. Have him look at courses, dorm selections and youtube videos. Reaches are just that, reaches. Essentially random lotteries that are too scarce and unpredictable and may not even be good fits. Focus on where you are already in, not the unlikelies. Congrats to your DC - he/she's going to college!!

+1 Your kid is in at 2 targets - congrats!!! The top 10 schools are incredibly difficult admissions. Keep your kid grounded in reality about those.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been pleased with the process so far. Although I made sure my child applied to a range of schools and I limited the number of reaches. We honed in on strong targets and likely reaches. So far they’ve been admitted to one reach.

Apply wisely. Keep finances in mind. I see so many students applying to schools they have no chances at. I feel for them.

Pleased with the process bc your kid got in one reach. OP isn’t there. Your story might be different if your didn’t have that one reach.

I think people may think by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works. Each school is independent. Applying to any school, no matter how many, with less than 10 percent acceptance means 90 percent chance at every school, the child doesn’t get it.

You're absolutely right that each school is independent, and that at a 10% acceptance school, there's a 90% chance of rejection at that particular school. But independence actually supports applying to multiple reaches, not the opposite!

Here's the key: While each individual school has a 90% rejection rate, the probability of being rejected from all of them decreases as you add more schools.

Think of it like flipping a weighted coin that lands on 'tails' 90% of the time. Each flip is independent, in the sense that the coin doesn't remember what happened before. But if you flip it 10 times instead of once, you're much more likely to get at least one "heads."

The math: If there's a 90% chance of rejection at each school:

Apply to 1 school: 90% chance of no acceptances
Apply to 5 schools: 0.90^5 = 59% chance of no acceptances (so 41% chance of at least one acceptance)
Apply to 10 schools: 0.90^10 = 35% chance of no acceptances (so 65% chance of at least one acceptance)

Independence means each outcome doesn't affect the others; it doesn't mean the outcomes don't add up. Which is why applying to multiple reach schools improves overall odds.

* ofc it isn't like flipping a coin, and while there is some randomness built into the process, the process isn't entirely random. But if we're gonna math it out, it's worth noting how probabilities work.

that said -- the math worth doing here has to do with how and whether to direct finite resources -- there are only so many hours in a day. And life is for living!

This is silly. This assumes that there is "independence" when in fact some of the features of your applicaiton (SAT score, GPA, recommendations) do have an impact on outcome and they are the same for each application.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We only have 3 RD coming up in March. DD already in at every single early action, including Georgetown. Deferred from ND and she has 2 more RD schools (one a reach and one a safety.

She will be upset if she doesn't get into her first choice, but learning to like different aspects of Georgetown and might even consider other schools which offered generous merit.

She's in a private that typically has success with the top Catholic schools, including ND, so we haven't given up hope yet.

My DC was deferred from ND as well. Lots were. Georgetown is a fantastic option, congratulations to her! What major?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been pleased with the process so far. Although I made sure my child applied to a range of schools and I limited the number of reaches. We honed in on strong targets and likely reaches. So far they’ve been admitted to one reach.

Apply wisely. Keep finances in mind. I see so many students applying to schools they have no chances at. I feel for them.

Pleased with the process bc your kid got in one reach. OP isn’t there. Your story might be different if your didn’t have that one reach.

I think people may think by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works. Each school is independent. Applying to any school, no matter how many, with less than 10 percent acceptance means 90 percent chance at every school, the child doesn’t get it.

You're absolutely right that each school is independent, and that at a 10% acceptance school, there's a 90% chance of rejection at that particular school. But independence actually supports applying to multiple reaches, not the opposite!

Here's the key: While each individual school has a 90% rejection rate, the probability of being rejected from all of them decreases as you add more schools.

Think of it like flipping a weighted coin that lands on 'tails' 90% of the time. Each flip is independent, in the sense that the coin doesn't remember what happened before. But if you flip it 10 times instead of once, you're much more likely to get at least one "heads."

The math: If there's a 90% chance of rejection at each school:

Apply to 1 school: 90% chance of no acceptances
Apply to 5 schools: 0.90^5 = 59% chance of no acceptances (so 41% chance of at least one acceptance)
Apply to 10 schools: 0.90^10 = 35% chance of no acceptances (so 65% chance of at least one acceptance)

Independence means each outcome doesn't affect the others; it doesn't mean the outcomes don't add up. Which is why applying to multiple reach schools improves overall odds.

* ofc it isn't like flipping a coin, and while there is some randomness built into the process, the process isn't entirely random. But if we're gonna math it out, it's worth noting how probabilities work.

that said -- the math worth doing here has to do with how and whether to direct finite resources -- there are only so many hours in a day. And life is for living!

This is silly. This assumes that there is "independence" when in fact some of the features of your applicaiton (SAT score, GPA, recommendations) do have an impact on outcome and they are the same for each application.

SAT and GPA are essentially binary: are you over the bar or not. And like 80% of applicants are over the bar. So if 2% of applicants are admitted, that leaves a lot of independent variation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been pleased with the process so far. Although I made sure my child applied to a range of schools and I limited the number of reaches. We honed in on strong targets and likely reaches. So far they’ve been admitted to one reach.

Apply wisely. Keep finances in mind. I see so many students applying to schools they have no chances at. I feel for them.

Pleased with the process bc your kid got in one reach. OP isn’t there. Your story might be different if your didn’t have that one reach.

I think people may think by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works. Each school is independent. Applying to any school, no matter how many, with less than 10 percent acceptance means 90 percent chance at every school, the child doesn’t get it.

You're absolutely right that each school is independent, and that at a 10% acceptance school, there's a 90% chance of rejection at that particular school. But independence actually supports applying to multiple reaches, not the opposite!

Here's the key: While each individual school has a 90% rejection rate, the probability of being rejected from all of them decreases as you add more schools.

Think of it like flipping a weighted coin that lands on 'tails' 90% of the time. Each flip is independent, in the sense that the coin doesn't remember what happened before. But if you flip it 10 times instead of once, you're much more likely to get at least one "heads."

The math: If there's a 90% chance of rejection at each school:

Apply to 1 school: 90% chance of no acceptances
Apply to 5 schools: 0.90^5 = 59% chance of no acceptances (so 41% chance of at least one acceptance)
Apply to 10 schools: 0.90^10 = 35% chance of no acceptances (so 65% chance of at least one acceptance)

Independence means each outcome doesn't affect the others; it doesn't mean the outcomes don't add up. Which is why applying to multiple reach schools improves overall odds.

* ofc it isn't like flipping a coin, and while there is some randomness built into the process, the process isn't entirely random. But if we're gonna math it out, it's worth noting how probabilities work.

that said -- the math worth doing here has to do with how and whether to direct finite resources -- there are only so many hours in a day. And life is for living!

This is silly. This assumes that there is "independence" when in fact some of the features of your applicaiton (SAT score, GPA, recommendations) do have an impact on outcome and they are the same for each application.

You're right that it's not how it actually works: There are correlated factors that make a student more likely to get multiple acceptances or multiple rejections than pure randomness would predict. So, very likely, if a student gets into one reach school, they are more likely to get into others; and the opposite is true, as well.

However as a response to PP who says is it NOT true that "by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works," because "Each school is independent" -- the argument holds: Assuming any significant degree of randomness and genuine independence, applying to more reach schools would certainly increase the probability that a student gets into at least one.

Which means that, roughly speaking, an otherwise-qualified kid absolutely should spread applications around in order to increase the chances that they get into at least one. The real question is, how many applications should they spread around? Because even if applying to tons and tons reaches theoretically increases the probability of one acceptance, we all have finite time and resources. So applying to 15 or 20 reaches is not gonna be a very strategic approach for most kids and I wouldn't recommend it.

But 6-8 applications or so? So long as the targets are well calibrated and the applications are well-executed, that will hold for most kids as a smart, strategic approach.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been pleased with the process so far. Although I made sure my child applied to a range of schools and I limited the number of reaches. We honed in on strong targets and likely reaches. So far they’ve been admitted to one reach.

Apply wisely. Keep finances in mind. I see so many students applying to schools they have no chances at. I feel for them.

Pleased with the process bc your kid got in one reach. OP isn’t there. Your story might be different if your didn’t have that one reach.

I think people may think by spreading out and applying to a bunch of reaches, statistically, their kids are more likely to get in to at least one. That isn’t how the math works. Each school is independent. Applying to any school, no matter how many, with less than 10 percent acceptance means 90 percent chance at every school, the child doesn’t get it.

You're absolutely right that each school is independent, and that at a 10% acceptance school, there's a 90% chance of rejection at that particular school. But independence actually supports applying to multiple reaches, not the opposite!

Here's the key: While each individual school has a 90% rejection rate, the probability of being rejected from all of them decreases as you add more schools.

Think of it like flipping a weighted coin that lands on 'tails' 90% of the time. Each flip is independent, in the sense that the coin doesn't remember what happened before. But if you flip it 10 times instead of once, you're much more likely to get at least one "heads."

The math: If there's a 90% chance of rejection at each school:

Apply to 1 school: 90% chance of no acceptances
Apply to 5 schools: 0.90^5 = 59% chance of no acceptances (so 41% chance of at least one acceptance)
Apply to 10 schools: 0.90^10 = 35% chance of no acceptances (so 65% chance of at least one acceptance)

Independence means each outcome doesn't affect the others; it doesn't mean the outcomes don't add up. Which is why applying to multiple reach schools improves overall odds.

* ofc it isn't like flipping a coin, and while there is some randomness built into the process, the process isn't entirely random. But if we're gonna math it out, it's worth noting how probabilities work.

that said -- the math worth doing here has to do with how and whether to direct finite resources -- there are only so many hours in a day. And life is for living!

This is silly. This assumes that there is "independence" when in fact some of the features of your applicaiton (SAT score, GPA, recommendations) do have an impact on outcome and they are the same for each application.

SAT and GPA are essentially binary: are you over the bar or not. And like 80% of applicants are over the bar. So if 2% of applicants are admitted, that leaves a lot of independent variation.

Correct. Once an applicant clears that academic bar, it's the other parts of the applications doing the work. Each school is looking for different characters, has different need in shaping their class.

[Anonymous]

I think it’s hard for many families to realize exactly how rejective a 5 to 10 percent admission rate is until they have gone through a RD round. And for RD, even some schools that have 30 percent plus acceptance rates in ED move down to sub 10 percent.

[Anonymous]

GPA and SAT get you in the door.

Your ECs, essays, and recommendations determine the ceiling.

Rice may like your EC1, Penn particularly loves EC2. This is where the independent factors come in.

[Anonymous]

What is so special about a "reach" school anyway? That other people want to get in? That some provosts and administrators from other universities think it has a great reputation, so they fill out a few forms hastily for the USNWR surveyors? I guess being highly rejective also helps a school climb up the rankings. But how does that help our kids? They want to get into schools and be given a chance, not be rejected.

My DS visited a target that he got into last year: UW Seattle. He was gob-smacked when he finally toured campus, the city, and sat in on a class. "This campus is gorgeous, Mom. This city is so cool. The people are friendly and great. There's so much to do. I love it here." It immediately shot up to his #1 spot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:GPA and SAT get you in the door.

Your ECs, essays, and recommendations determine the ceiling.

Rice may like your EC1, Penn particularly loves EC2. This is where the independent factors come in.

Yup. And just to be super clear, acceptance rates ≠ probability that your kid will or will not get in. Not at all.

Still, those independent factors make it make sense to apply to a bunch of reaches and not just one, so long as the applicant more or less matches the profile of admitted students.
(But not, like, the entire top 20. Bc if your kid has been rejected from 19 reaches, the 20th wasn't gonna go, either.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What is so special about a "reach" school anyway? That other people want to get in? That some provosts and administrators from other universities think it has a great reputation, so they fill out a few forms hastily for the USNWR surveyors? I guess being highly rejective also helps a school climb up the rankings. But how does that help our kids? They want to get into schools and be given a chance, not be rejected.

My DS visited a target that he got into last year: UW Seattle. He was gob-smacked when he finally toured campus, the city, and sat in on a class. "This campus is gorgeous, Mom. This city is so cool. The people are friendly and great. There's so much to do. I love it here." It immediately shot up to his #1 spot.

Well for my kids -- and many, many applicants like them -- it's that those are precisely the schools that offer the most generous financial aid to low income students.

Not even close.

[Anonymous]

OP, stop making it all about your ego. If your kid is happy, then be happy for him. Stop making it about yourself, your feelings, your ego. It isn't about you at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is so special about a "reach" school anyway? That other people want to get in? That some provosts and administrators from other universities think it has a great reputation, so they fill out a few forms hastily for the USNWR surveyors? I guess being highly rejective also helps a school climb up the rankings. But how does that help our kids? They want to get into schools and be given a chance, not be rejected.

My DS visited a target that he got into last year: UW Seattle. He was gob-smacked when he finally toured campus, the city, and sat in on a class. "This campus is gorgeous, Mom. This city is so cool. The people are friendly and great. There's so much to do. I love it here." It immediately shot up to his #1 spot.

Well for my kids -- and many, many applicants like them -- it's that those are precisely the schools that offer the most generous financial aid to low income students.

Not even close.

That’s true. But for a significant majority of academically qualified students, the elite schools are far more expensive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:GPA and SAT get you in the door.

Your ECs, essays, and recommendations determine the ceiling.

Rice may like your EC1, Penn particularly loves EC2. This is where the independent factors come in.

Yup. And just to be super clear, acceptance rates ≠ probability that your kid will or will not get in. Not at all.

Still, those independent factors make it make sense to apply to a bunch of reaches and not just one, so long as the applicant more or less matches the profile of admitted students.
(But not, like, the entire top 20. Bc if your kid has been rejected from 19 reaches, the 20th wasn't gonna go, either.)

SO TRUE!

When the applicant is the right fit for the school, the probability could be much higher than the headline accpetance rate.
For the right fit school, ED would help a lot because ED further elimintates the yield question.