Jeff Selingo on people skipping "target schools"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My daughter has gotten into our state 'flagship' and the 'flagships' of two neighboring states (she's waiting to hear from her 'targets' and 'reaches'). The delta between our state 'flagship' and the private targets or reaches is over $200k over 4 years. That's a lot of money for anybody.

It's objectively "a lot" of money. But we started 529s early and have had great stock market gains -- so those funds are literally bursting. So I'd rather pay for UMiami (which DD loves) versus JMU (a perfectly fine choice if cost is a consideration or if kid prefers it).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree - this is our plan.

I have been saying for a few years that I think grad school is the new college, so it makes sense to go to a state college and save some $ for grad school.

I honestly don't understand this logic at all. So many grad schools / grad degrees produce kids with poor outcomes. So many jobs/industries don't care about a grad degree whatsoever.

This is another skewed DMV perspective that worked for you, but you can't rely on it holding going forward.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jeff Selling has a talent for creating names for things that are not clear. Buyers and sellers still makes me confused. I get the concept, just who is buying and who is selling.

I read this email this morning and thought the same thing. I think he's right on with this - he describes me! - but are the skip over schools the ones we're skipping over a la "fly over" - or the ones we're skipping to?

But whatever -- for sure agree with this. Not paying 90k a year for BC, sorry BC lovers. Just no value there for full pay families.

The schools are buying and selling. If they're buyers, they have to give you money. If they're sellers, you have to give them more money.

Fly-over schools are the ones you're skipping. Same concept as fly-over states--they're not the destination.

I read the email. he doesn't say fly overs, that's the PP. that would be clear. he's using skip-overs and it's less clear, but I get the idea.

I totally get where the PP is coming from. His catchy phrases are confusing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So it’s surprising or newsworthy or forward-thinking to suggest that $200k families don’t/wont/can’t pay $400k for Villanova or Tulane?

Yes, because just a year ago those schools didn’t cost entirely that much. Tipping point reached.

Yes. Also test-optional makes these schools much less attractive. It’s one thing to stretch, financially, when telling yourself that your kid will be among his intellectual peers. Iron sharpens iron and all that. But if only 15% of students are reporting scores … what are you paying for, again? You can get a mix of students, including some very strong ones, at the flagship.

This. 100%.

https://www.tiktok.com/@supertutortv/video/7327004377451957547?lang=en

And yet they turn a blind eye to the lack of test scores.. wonder why..

[Anonymous]

And why wouldn't parents (and their kids) say, if Ivy + doesn't want my kid (me), then I'll send him (I'll go) to an OOS honors college on a full ride? (see ASU, UoA)

Makes sense, especially with $90k a year tuition, which is insane/offensive/abusive.

[Anonymous]

💯 Last year had merit offers from CWRU, BU and Lehigh. Enrolled at UMD.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So it’s surprising or newsworthy or forward-thinking to suggest that $200k families don’t/wont/can’t pay $400k for Villanova or Tulane?

Yes, because just a year ago those schools didn’t cost entirely that much. Tipping point reached.

Yes. Also test-optional makes these schools much less attractive. It’s one thing to stretch, financially, when telling yourself that your kid will be among his intellectual peers. Iron sharpens iron and all that. But if only 15% of students are reporting scores … what are you paying for, again? You can get a mix of students, including some very strong ones, at the flagship.

This. 100%.

https://www.tiktok.com/@supertutortv/video/7327004377451957547?lang=en

And yet they turn a blind eye to the lack of test scores.. wonder why..

I can’t understand your comment. Who is turning a blind eye to the lack of test scores?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Selingo is just trying to make enough $$ to continue sending his own kids to very expensive, private, brand name schools.

Where do they go? Do tell.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And why wouldn't parents (and their kids) say, if Ivy + doesn't want my kid (me), then I'll send him (I'll go) to an OOS honors college on a full ride? (see ASU, UoA)

Makes sense, especially with $90k a year tuition, which is insane/offensive/abusive.

Well the tuition isn't $90k but still there is plenty of demand for those pricey privates ranked around #30-50.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And why wouldn't parents (and their kids) say, if Ivy + doesn't want my kid (me), then I'll send him (I'll go) to an OOS honors college on a full ride? (see ASU, UoA)

Makes sense, especially with $90k a year tuition, which is insane/offensive/abusive.

Well the tuition isn't $90k but still there is plenty of demand for those pricey privates ranked around #30-50.

Depend in applying, but yield is what really matters. And if people apply, see what their merit offer is, but then go to UMD Honors or fill in the blank public honors, then yield at those privates won't hold up over the long run.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My daughter has gotten into our state 'flagship' and the 'flagships' of two neighboring states (she's waiting to hear from her 'targets' and 'reaches'). The delta between our state 'flagship' and the private targets or reaches is over $200k over 4 years. That's a lot of money for anybody.

It's objectively "a lot" of money. But we started 529s early and have had great stock market gains -- so those funds are literally bursting. So I'd rather pay for UMiami (which DD loves) versus JMU (a perfectly fine choice if cost is a consideration or if kid prefers it).

I was so impressed when my own kid said, "if I dont spend 100% of the money in my 529 for college or grad school, could I leave the rest for my own kids?"

The answer to this is yes.

My kid took a merit offer at a well known SLAC over a full pay offer at a really comparable-but-up-15-spots-in-a-magazine college and since we didn't use the entire 529, it keeps growing. the 120k she saved is now worth about 250k. Unless the market tanks, she could use the rest on grad school plus have that 35k for her ROTH. I could take some of the deposits out (but not gains) to help with rent in her 20s. She could pay for her kids college without saving a dime. She could maybe do all of the above.

Literally going to Kenyon (let's say) instead of Vassar (let's say) could fully pay for her retirement and college for her kids. If you didn't have to spend decades saving for either of those things, your QOL could be very different.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And why wouldn't parents (and their kids) say, if Ivy + doesn't want my kid (me), then I'll send him (I'll go) to an OOS honors college on a full ride? (see ASU, UoA)

Makes sense, especially with $90k a year tuition, which is insane/offensive/abusive.

Well the tuition isn't $90k but still there is plenty of demand for those pricey privates ranked around #30-50.

U of Miami is $93k cost of attendance.

[Anonymous]

Markets will adjust and Ivy-plus will begin offering more made or reducing cost of attendance in other ways.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What are the public and private “slip over schools”? Do they become wealthier and fancier with time?

NYU
BC
Tufts
BU
Lehigh
Wake
Case Western
Northeastern
W&M
Brandeis
Santa Clara
GW
Syracuse
U-Miami
Villanova
Tulane
Pepperdine

If so, these are the private schools ranked between 35 and 80 that I think he is referring to? Or maybe is it a more narrow set?

Interestingly, these are the schools where a lot of middle of the pack (3.7uw) private school kids that are full pay, apply early and get in from our private school

But GW is known for giving lots of merit aid--brining the sticker price down the $40k range.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And why wouldn't parents (and their kids) say, if Ivy + doesn't want my kid (me), then I'll send him (I'll go) to an OOS honors college on a full ride? (see ASU, UoA)

Makes sense, especially with $90k a year tuition, which is insane/offensive/abusive.

Well the tuition isn't $90k but still there is plenty of demand for those pricey privates ranked around #30-50.

Depend in applying, but yield is what really matters. And if people apply, see what their merit offer is, but then go to UMD Honors or fill in the blank public honors, then yield at those privates won't hold up over the long run.

What are you talking about? Full pay has been "holding up" these institutions since forever. I don't think they're going away any time soon. And thrifty shoppers will still go to the UVAs and UMDs and UC schools. Demand for all these still exists.