What changed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The increase in seats may be true, but it's not enough to offset the thousands of applications schools are getting each year. Many schools continue to report historic levels of applications. Look for example at JMU's application numbers after joining the Common App in 2022 - from JMU's Feb 2023 press release - JMU received a total of 24,156 applicants this year, setting a 30% increase in Early Action applicants within the last academic year and an 83% increase within the last two years. This is in comparison to the 2021 pool of 18,533 applicants and the 2020 pool of 13,190 applicants.

Yeah, that doesn't really work out. JMU's acceptance rate in 1987 was only 36%. JMU's acceptance rate today is 74%.

Apr 30, 1987 — Last year, 11,080 high school seniors applied to JMU, and 4,018 were accepted, resulting in a 36 percent acceptance rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The increase in seats may be true, but it's not enough to offset the thousands of applications schools are getting each year. Many schools continue to report historic levels of applications. Look for example at JMU's application numbers after joining the Common App in 2022 - from JMU's Feb 2023 press release - JMU received a total of 24,156 applicants this year, setting a 30% increase in Early Action applicants within the last academic year and an 83% increase within the last two years. This is in comparison to the 2021 pool of 18,533 applicants and the 2020 pool of 13,190 applicants.

Yeah, that doesn't really work out. JMU's acceptance rate in 1987 was only 36%. JMU's acceptance rate today is 74%.

Apr 30, 1987 — Last year, 11,080 high school seniors applied to JMU, and 4,018 were accepted, resulting in a 36 percent acceptance rate.

JMU Admitted Freshmen (2022-23)
Applications: 37,055
Applicants accepted: 27,238 (73.5%)
SAT mid-50% range*:1190-1350
ACT mid-50% range*: 25-30

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Parents are also willing to send their kid anywhere in the country and pay the airfare. My father would never have paid for me or my siblings to attend Wisconsin (no offense Wisconsin).

Exactly! Out of my HS class of 450 less than 5 of us went OOS (and 350 went to college). Everyone just went to school at a state school (VA, so lots of choices). Most still live in the area as well. Those of us who went OOS don't still live in the area.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Parents are also willing to send their kid anywhere in the country and pay the airfare. My father would never have paid for me or my siblings to attend Wisconsin (no offense Wisconsin).

Exactly! Out of my HS class of 450 less than 5 of us went OOS (and 350 went to college). Everyone just went to school at a state school (VA, so lots of choices). Most still live in the area as well. Those of us who went OOS don't still live in the area.

My parents had the benefit (though not really gained in a good way) of having recently received an inheritance. They used it to fully pay for my sister and me to go to an expensive - at the time- private school an 12 hour drive. Most people thought they were nuts to do so when we could’ve gone to UNC-CH for cheap.

[Anonymous]

I was glancing at the demographics of several highly regarded universities and was surprised by how large the "international" student cohort is, even for undergraduates. Up to 20% is not unusual.

It's obviously deliberately cultivated but it also does mean how much more competitive it is for American students if 10-20% slots are going to international students.

[Anonymous]

Ok, sorry, I used JMU to illustrate the increase in apps via Common App, not selectivity. But UVA is selective and works too - last year UVA received a "record breaking" 56,439 apps, up 10% from the previous year. I haven't looked at the numbers for this class, but I bet it will be another record breaker. Last year, Auburn received a record number 48k applications, a 5% increase from the year before. Northeastern received 96,641 applications for fall 2023, up from 91K in 2022, 75,233 in 2021 and 64,428 in 2020. That’s an increase of 32,213 applicants, or 50% over four years, according to Satyajit Dattagupta, the university’s chief enrollment officer. NYU received 50,804 in 2014 and had a 35% admit rate. Five years later, NYU received 84,481 apps and had a 16% admit rate. You'll see the same pattern because kids are applying to the same 50-60 schools. But some none selective schools are also reporting record numbers. In 2023, the Univ of North Dakota reported a 2.3% increase over 2022, their strongest enrollment growth in 10 years. North friggin Dakota!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ok, sorry, I used JMU to illustrate the increase in apps via Common App, not selectivity. But UVA is selective and works too - last year UVA received a "record breaking" 56,439 apps, up 10% from the previous year. I haven't looked at the numbers for this class, but I bet it will be another record breaker. Last year, Auburn received a record number 48k applications, a 5% increase from the year before. Northeastern received 96,641 applications for fall 2023, up from 91K in 2022, 75,233 in 2021 and 64,428 in 2020. That’s an increase of 32,213 applicants, or 50% over four years, according to Satyajit Dattagupta, the university’s chief enrollment officer. NYU received 50,804 in 2014 and had a 35% admit rate. Five years later, NYU received 84,481 apps and had a 16% admit rate. You'll see the same pattern because kids are applying to the same 50-60 schools. But some none selective schools are also reporting record numbers. In 2023, the Univ of North Dakota reported a 2.3% increase over 2022, their strongest enrollment growth in 10 years. North friggin Dakota!

Look...all this is playing absolute havoc on yields, because the actual number of students is not increasing....just the applications per student.

WVU enrollment has shrunk by 16% since 2013, Indiana University of PA enrollment has shrunk by 40% since 2013.

University of North Dakota enrollment in 2010 was 14,194 students vs. 14,172 today...so, they are still just trying to get back to where they were 13 years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are far more kids applying to college, and accordingly far more top kids. But the number of slots to fill hasn’t changed (much), so it’s much harder to get accepted than it used to be.

There was an SAT score reset, so 1500+ scores are more common. What was once a 1380 is probably a 1500 now? Not sure of the exact conversion, there are charts you can find.

Test optional means median scores at schools are getting pushed upwards — if a kid isn’t a high scorer, they are unlikely to submit, which drives up average test scores, which makes even fewer kids likely to submit (this may be changing at some schools, so read what the school says carefully).

ED has become a way for schools to drive up “yield,” which not only helps them manage their class, but also helps with rankings.

Rankings in general have become much more important to schools, so there’s a bit of game theory involved in applying (“will this decision of mine help the college’s rankings?”)

Athletic recruiting seems to be a much bigger thing than it used to be. Athletes are recruited ED and get pre-reads so be skeptical of ED admit rates, particularly at small schools with high percentages of recruited athletes.

College has gotten so expensive that fewer families can pay full-price, so “full-pay” is a hook at most schools.

The expense has made merit aid a very important factor for many families. Some merit aid rewards real merit, as a way to draw high-stats kids. Some merit aid is a form of tuition discounting and is offered more widely. Merit aid can sometimes bring a private school cost below that of a public.

Most elite schools don’t offer merit aid (and if they do it’s probably bc they aren’t in an ideal location).

The increased expense of college forces a lot of families to think hard about ROI. This is exacerbated by anxieties related to socioeconomic conditions in the US —vast wealth disparity and a disappearing middle class. You will see a lot more families urging their kids toward CS and engineering majors. Their anxieties can sometimes manifest as judgement toward people on other paths, but that is what anxiety does.

Most state flagships have become much harder to get into.

Many have said that top schools don’t seem as interested in “well rounded” kids — it’s more about being “pointy.”

Top schools are able to fill their classes with high-achieving 4.0+ 1500+ kids, so some people believe the experience of being on campus — not merely applying — is more stressful than it used to be.

Elite schools are a little more able to offer financial aid for those families who aren’t poor, but for whom 85k/annual still hurts.

There’s more data available — find the common data set for schools of interest, and get to know the data they provide.

I’m sure I’ve missed things. But those are some of my observations.

Your analysis is pretty accurate...but only for like the top 150 schools in the country.

Outside of that group, acceptance rates are actually way up and enrollment way down. Look at WVU, tons of regional PA colleges (like Shippensburg or IUP), many rural, small LACs, etc.

+1

And DCUM folks pretty much obsess over the T25.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:AA, DEI, war on merit. All of these make it harder and harder for the non-hooked students. And you’re all fueling this disastrous failure our education system.

The educational system is becoming less racist in the U.S.

White men don't have a monopoly on elite colleges since the 1960s.

Good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ok, sorry, I used JMU to illustrate the increase in apps via Common App, not selectivity. But UVA is selective and works too - last year UVA received a "record breaking" 56,439 apps, up 10% from the previous year. I haven't looked at the numbers for this class, but I bet it will be another record breaker. Last year, Auburn received a record number 48k applications, a 5% increase from the year before. Northeastern received 96,641 applications for fall 2023, up from 91K in 2022, 75,233 in 2021 and 64,428 in 2020. That’s an increase of 32,213 applicants, or 50% over four years, according to Satyajit Dattagupta, the university’s chief enrollment officer. NYU received 50,804 in 2014 and had a 35% admit rate. Five years later, NYU received 84,481 apps and had a 16% admit rate. You'll see the same pattern because kids are applying to the same 50-60 schools. But some none selective schools are also reporting record numbers. In 2023, the Univ of North Dakota reported a 2.3% increase over 2022, their strongest enrollment growth in 10 years. North friggin Dakota!

Look...all this is playing absolute havoc on yields, because the actual number of students is not increasing....just the applications per student.

WVU enrollment has shrunk by 16% since 2013, Indiana University of PA enrollment has shrunk by 40% since 2013.

University of North Dakota enrollment in 2010 was 14,194 students vs. 14,172 today...so, they are still just trying to get back to where they were 13 years ago.

product of investment (or lack thereof) by state governors and legislators as well as location

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Parents are also willing to send their kid anywhere in the country and pay the airfare. My father would never have paid for me or my siblings to attend Wisconsin (no offense Wisconsin).

I paid my own airfare when I went to college. I did not want to attend the local university/college my parents insisted on due to cost-savings. Took me 5 years including summers but I went where I wanted.

I took the Greyhound bus across the country. By myself at 18. It was $99. I did also get a few flights that were that cheap over the years but mostly, Greyhound.

I met a lot of people who were fleeing domestic violence, a lot of people who'd just gotten out of prison, and a lot of teenage runaways. We all smoked many cigarettes. It was educational.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The increase in seats may be true, but it's not enough to offset the thousands of applications schools are getting each year. Many schools continue to report historic levels of applications. Look for example at JMU's application numbers after joining the Common App in 2022 - from JMU's Feb 2023 press release - JMU received a total of 24,156 applicants this year, setting a 30% increase in Early Action applicants within the last academic year and an 83% increase within the last two years. This is in comparison to the 2021 pool of 18,533 applicants and the 2020 pool of 13,190 applicants.

Yeah, that doesn't really work out. JMU's acceptance rate in 1987 was only 36%. JMU's acceptance rate today is 74%.

Apr 30, 1987 — Last year, 11,080 high school seniors applied to JMU, and 4,018 were accepted, resulting in a 36 percent acceptance rate.

JMU Admitted Freshmen (2022-23)
Applications: 37,055
Applicants accepted: 27,238 (73.5%)
SAT mid-50% range*:1190-1350
ACT mid-50% range*: 25-30

$’

JMU has about 5000 students per year in the undergrad. So they have to admit more than 27000 to yield 5000? This is part of the problem with the arms race of people applying to so many schools. on the admission side, it’s a crapshoot for the students. then on the yield side it’s a crapshoot for the colleges. No wonder ED is becoming more and more popular.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Admissions changed so much since past generations applied to U.S. colleges. What changed?

Another thread recently had this posted, which caught my attention:

Except those 1500 SATs would’ve been more like 1380s 25 years ago. And GPAs? Please.

Exactly. I think people sell themselves short. Plus back in the day, kids were not micromanaged like hot house flowers by their parents.

The institutions have generally not grown in size, so there is roughly the same number of "seats" today as there were 30 or 60 years ago. With that in mind:

1) Higher US population so more kids applying in general
2) more international students
3) grade inflation means many more applicants believe they are qualified for the available seats
4) changes in standardized tests means generally higher scores. See #3.
5) higher relative costs for college means people really want value for the money they will spend, that magnifies focus on "T20" or "T50" or whatever schools

I don't understand why people keep saying that institutions have not grown in size...since when are you referring? Here are some examples below:

JMU: 9600 undergrads in 1990 vs. 20,346 today
UC Berkeley: 21,453 undergrads in 1990 vs. 32,831 today
UCLA: 24,200 undergrads in 1990 vs. 34,243 today
WVU: 15,042 in 1995 vs. 19,059 today
University of Alabama: 17,500 in 1990 vs. 32,458 today

The list goes on-and-on.

There are actually 1 MM fewer college students in total today vs. 2013.

Does that include the international students?

[Anonymous]

Fear and demographics are the mix.

Demographics mean more students chasing similar seat totals at the top 100 or so. Add TO and DEI into the mix and that is a big reason.

Fear is bigger though. Fear is what makes families buy into the top 30, top 50 BS - which in turn makes them push for higher grades/scores, more tutors, more everything - especially more applications.

One of the greatest cons in society is that a certain type or tier of college is needed to “make it”. It’s simply not true as studies have shown.

[Anonymous]

I know it’s a popular view that the standards are messed up and kids who are not that special are skating by.

Could be true I guess.

But I saw my kid work through high school and set herself up for a selective college admit. She had all the GPAs and test scores needed. But they weren’t any more “fake” than my scores were 30 years ago when I was applying to school. She is better prepared than I was. She is at least as smart as I was. And she worked harder than I did. For the same caliber of school.

I think people don’t give kids credit today. Our best today is better than our best of yesterday. And for our country, this is a great thing.