Which schools will continue to be the most sought after in the next decade? Which ones will hit a downward trajectory?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rutgers is like a cross between UMD and UVA. Top in-state students want UVA. Maryland, especially with CS, retains many of the best Maryland students. Rutgers isn't seen as a state school which keeps home the best and brightest.

Maybe because of all the other choices available in the northeast-SLACS, Jesuits, private R1 schools. Or it's the wacky take a bus to class campus feel.

UVA and UNC are already insanely competitive to get into. I shudder to think what it will look like in 10 years.

Rutgers is ranked In the 40s and will rise going forward.

Out of 4,000+ colleges, not bad!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rutgers is like a cross between UMD and UVA. Top in-state students want UVA. Maryland, especially with CS, retains many of the best Maryland students. Rutgers isn't seen as a state school which keeps home the best and brightest.

Maybe because of all the other choices available in the northeast-SLACS, Jesuits, private R1 schools. Or it's the wacky take a bus to class campus feel.

UVA and UNC are already insanely competitive to get into. I shudder to think what it will look like in 10 years.

? My niece who lives in NJ went to Rutgers, and it is absolutely seen as an in state school there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Agree that state flagships will continue to become popular.

I see nobody has mentioned the "demographic cliff" that begins in 2 years. It will be interesting to see how a shrinking population in U.S. and abroad will impact university program and pricing decisions. I wonder if flagships will need to expand their "consortiums" with other states for in-state tuition as their populations decline?

Also not mentioned is the growing trend for U.S. kids to go to the U.K. or other countries for favorable tuition rates. As more of these countries wise up and expand their English speaking offerings, U.S. colleges will need to factor in yet another competitor when trying to hit the merit aid sweet spot. $40k to $50k COA won't cut it when Europe can be half the price even with travel. And Canadian universities although they have an international premium fee are attractive when there is 25% xr rate discount.

IMO, it won't be a hard fall. The "cliff" will be more likely a gentle rolling hill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Rutgers is like a cross between UMD and UVA. Top in-state students want UVA. Maryland, especially with CS, retains many of the best Maryland students. Rutgers isn't seen as a state school which keeps home the best and brightest.
Maybe because of all the other choices available in the northeast-SLACS, Jesuits, private R1 schools. Or it's the wacky take a bus to class campus feel.
UVA and UNC are already insanely competitive to get into. I shudder to think what it will look like in 10 years.

Rutgers is ranked In the 40s and will rise going forward.
Out of 4,000+ colleges, not bad!

Rutgers- New Brunswick's acceptance rate is 67%. Its yield is pretty low, so for right now, many, many students use it as a safety.

Contrast with UVA, UNC, UofF, Michigan, etc.

But time will tell if based on the factors above, things change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:White middle class parents will continue to push the idea that the schools their kids attend are better than they actually are. First it was SLACs and now it’s public flagships. Anything to make themselves feel better.

You sound like you have some deep-seated class issues about your neighbors. No one told you to move to Bethesda.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If Florida and Georgia can get to UVA level, I'm not sure how much more room in the south.

For flagship publics, you need a huge buy in from the brightest in-state students to stay home. And there has to be a sufficient quantity of high achieving students. NOVA probably has more of those students than Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi combined.

How do you know this?

Over 5,000 Virginians score between 1400 and 1600 on the SAT.

In Alabama, fewer than 500. In Arkansas, fewer than 250. Same for Mississippi.

Keep in mind, this is a score achieved in one sitting. So all these states, including Virginia, will have more students achieving a 1400-1600 using the composite score.

That doesn’t tell us much. Did they have the same test prep budget as nova kids?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take:

With 2.8 billion Chinese and Indians, a growing Asian domestic population, and a finite number of slots at top schools, my hypothesis is that the top schools we see today will retain their status PLUS get increasingly more difficult to gain entry. The skills necessary for technological advancements dictates that high-demand STEM graduates will continue to fuel the gap between "elite (and near-elite) institutions and everyone else. The number of international students studying in the US have doubled over the past 10 years. These students very much are "name driven" which drives the cycle of upward selectivity at all but a few schools.

My list:

Rich get richer category
Ivies + UChicago, Stanford, MIT, Caltech, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Rice, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Emory, Wash. Univ at SL

Through inertia they will continue to be the #1 destination for the world's elite. In spite of the spotlight shone on some of the contentious issues of today, I don't see these universities are going anywhere.

The UC system:
More demand, same supply. Center of tech and innovation. Historically, less than half the price of comparable private schools. Increasing demographic changes skewing Asian ensures robust demand. Internationals love the UC's.

Top flight publics outside of the UC's:
UVA, UNC, Michigan, UIUC, UGA, Florida, Texas, A&M
Population growth in the south, plus tradition, plus in-state tuition will continue to drive the bus. Crazy to think that Florida and UGA are now considered to be top flight universities.

Location-driven universities:
Boston, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Los Angeles
These schools benefit from being in a world-class city. Like the UC's, internationals love these schools. The university enriches the city; likewise, the city enriches the university.
BU, Northeastern, NYU, UMiami, USC, (Tulane??).

The potential up and comers:

East coast: Does GWU or American make that next-level leap considering the draw of D.C.? Again, limited supply at "top" schools means that the top will be filtered lower.

In Texas, does Texas, A&M and Rice suck the oxygen out so that a school like SMU can never make that leap? A growing state with a finite number of elite institutions.

Interesting list, and I will play along.

First, I disagree with the presumption that US universities will continue to be as desirous to internationals. We already saw a drop during the Trump years (pre-pandemic) due to visa restrictions. As reports of carjackings, shootings, etc., increase, internationalists will increasingly look to study in other countries. Look at the lists of top world universities! Already, we hardly dominate.

Your top-flight state universities list is short. Due to skyrocketing costs, more smart people will enroll at state flagships. Already, UMD and Rutgers, among many others, belong on your list.

Fortunately violent crime is dropping significantly and is basically back to pre-pandemic levels. So anyone deciding to not come in 2024 when they would have come in 2019 is just... welll... dumb

https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2023-10-20/killings-in-the-u-s-are-dropping-at-an-historic-rate-will-anyone-notice-essential-politics

Not here in DC!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous[b wrote:]Lots of the schools being mentioned are in coastal areas. I thought coastal areas were going to be under water in a decade due to climate change. It’s almost like the people exaggerated how bad the problem is. Maybe Obama’s coastal mansion is a hint that even some Democrats don’t really buy the doomsday predictions. [/quo[/b]te]

LOL! That nonsense started with Gore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If Florida and Georgia can get to UVA level, I'm not sure how much more room in the south.

For flagship publics, you need a huge buy in from the brightest in-state students to stay home. And there has to be a sufficient quantity of high achieving students. NOVA probably has more of those students than Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi combined.

How do you know this?

Over 5,000 Virginians score between 1400 and 1600 on the SAT.

In Alabama, fewer than 500. In Arkansas, fewer than 250. Same for Mississippi.

Keep in mind, this is a score achieved in one sitting. So all these states, including Virginia, will have more students achieving a 1400-1600 using the composite score.

Populations of Southern states are changing dramatically with people moving down there. Will impact their flagships, which are already very well managed and have a lot going for them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Agree that state flagships will continue to become popular.

I see nobody has mentioned the "demographic cliff" that begins in 2 years. It will be interesting to see how a shrinking population in U.S. and abroad will impact university program and pricing decisions. I wonder if flagships will need to expand their "consortiums" with other states for in-state tuition as their populations decline?

Also not mentioned is the growing trend for U.S. kids to go to the U.K. or other countries for favorable tuition rates. As more of these countries wise up and expand their English speaking offerings, U.S. colleges will need to factor in yet another competitor when trying to hit the merit aid sweet spot. $40k to $50k COA won't cut it when Europe can be half the price even with travel. And Canadian universities although they have an international premium fee are attractive when there is 25% xr rate discount.

IMO, it won't be a hard fall. The "cliff" will be more likely a gentle rolling hill.

True but schools outside of the top 25 or so will still have to make up the widening shortfall of applicants while covering large costs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If Florida and Georgia can get to UVA level, I'm not sure how much more room in the south.

For flagship publics, you need a huge buy in from the brightest in-state students to stay home. And there has to be a sufficient quantity of high achieving students. NOVA probably has more of those students than Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi combined.

How do you know this?

Over 5,000 Virginians score between 1400 and 1600 on the SAT.

In Alabama, fewer than 500. In Arkansas, fewer than 250. Same for Mississippi.

Keep in mind, this is a score achieved in one sitting. So all these states, including Virginia, will have more students achieving a 1400-1600 using the composite score.

Populations of Southern states are changing dramatically with people moving down there. Will impact their flagships, which are already very well managed and have a lot going for them.

Some big differences among Southern states. Louisiana actually lost population according to the most recent census report and Mississippi is basically treading water.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Rutgers is like a cross between UMD and UVA. Top in-state students want UVA. Maryland, especially with CS, retains many of the best Maryland students. Rutgers isn't seen as a state school which keeps home the best and brightest.
Maybe because of all the other choices available in the northeast-SLACS, Jesuits, private R1 schools. Or it's the wacky take a bus to class campus feel.
UVA and UNC are already insanely competitive to get into. I shudder to think what it will look like in 10 years.

Rutgers is ranked In the 40s and will rise going forward.
Out of 4,000+ colleges, not bad!

Rutgers- New Brunswick's acceptance rate is 67%. Its yield is pretty low, so for right now, many, many students use it as a safety.

Contrast with UVA, UNC, UofF, Michigan, etc.

But time will tell if based on the factors above, things change.

Rutgers wasn't being compared to already elite public flagships ( you can scratch Florida...don't know how that got snuck in there with UNC, UVA and Michigan). However, within 10 years, state flagships will rise in popularity , and Rutgers stands to remain well within the top 40 or so.

[Anonymous]

I think we will witness the fall of the ivy league and I say that as an ivy grad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In general I think there will be a push to schools perceived as fun but with good educational rigor. The northeast schools will drop because they are perceived as grim grinds filled with backstabbing, unfriendly people. Political moderation will be appealing. I think this generation of kids, who suffered through covid, has little patience for schools where, fair or not, there is a perception of tolerance of drama queens and waste of education. This will also go with an increasing demand for good ROI.

Excessive drama, misery, and petulance is headed out, solid education, fun, and good ROI is in.

So kids weren't interested in schools that were fun before recently? And plenty of drama and backstabbing in the Southern sorority scene.

They were, but schools in the northeast used to be a lot more fun because there was more personality variety in who they attracted. They used to attract the population that made campuses come alive: the quirky geniuses, the smart frat and sorority kids, the theater kids who had the time in HS to really perfect their craft, etc. But those kids often don’t have the mid-career project management skills that getting perfect GPAs in a test-minimizing environment along with the requisite resume-polishing now requires. So these schools are instead filled with grim armies of Tracy Flicks who don’t understand what “fun” even means.

Have you been on the campus of some of these schools recently? What’s remarkable is how silent they are. It’s like walking through a library, but outside. It’s outright depressing and for some bright kids, that’s not going to be appealing no matter how shiny the name is.

[Anonymous]

State flagships are the next “thing”. Families will increasingly balk at spending outrageous sums for Larla to vape and whine about micro aggressions at obscure private schools.

Employers will increasingly balk at dealing with obnoxious super-woke hires from ivies. Without leading to a lucrative employment pipeline, their desirability will slowly ebb.