Which schools will continue to be the most sought after in the next decade? Which ones will hit a downward trajectory?

[Anonymous]

My take:

With 2.8 billion Chinese and Indians, a growing Asian domestic population, and a finite number of slots at top schools, my hypothesis is that the top schools we see today will retain their status PLUS get increasingly more difficult to gain entry. The skills necessary for technological advancements dictates that high-demand STEM graduates will continue to fuel the gap between "elite (and near-elite) institutions and everyone else. The number of international students studying in the US have doubled over the past 10 years. These students very much are "name driven" which drives the cycle of upward selectivity at all but a few schools.

My list:

Rich get richer category
Ivies + UChicago, Stanford, MIT, Caltech, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Rice, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Emory, Wash. Univ at SL

Through inertia they will continue to be the #1 destination for the world's elite. In spite of the spotlight shone on some of the contentious issues of today, I don't see these universities are going anywhere.

The UC system:
More demand, same supply. Center of tech and innovation. Historically, less than half the price of comparable private schools. Increasing demographic changes skewing Asian ensures robust demand. Internationals love the UC's.

Top flight publics outside of the UC's:
UVA, UNC, Michigan, UIUC, UGA, Florida, Texas, A&M
Population growth in the south, plus tradition, plus in-state tuition will continue to drive the bus. Crazy to think that Florida and UGA are now considered to be top flight universities.

Location-driven universities:
Boston, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Los Angeles
These schools benefit from being in a world-class city. Like the UC's, internationals love these schools. The university enriches the city; likewise, the city enriches the university.
BU, Northeastern, NYU, UMiami, USC, (Tulane??).

The potential up and comers:

East coast: Does GWU or American make that next-level leap considering the draw of D.C.? Again, limited supply at "top" schools means that the top will be filtered lower.

In Texas, does Texas, A&M and Rice suck the oxygen out so that a school like SMU can never make that leap? A growing state with a finite number of elite institutions.

[Anonymous]

Oof

[Anonymous]

It's like we need another DCUM category called something like "Hypothetical College and University Discussion"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My take:

With 2.8 billion Chinese and Indians, a growing Asian domestic population, and a finite number of slots at top schools, my hypothesis is that the top schools we see today will retain their status PLUS get increasingly more difficult to gain entry. The skills necessary for technological advancements dictates that high-demand STEM graduates will continue to fuel the gap between "elite (and near-elite) institutions and everyone else. The number of international students studying in the US have doubled over the past 10 years. These students very much are "name driven" which drives the cycle of upward selectivity at all but a few schools.

My list:

Rich get richer category
Ivies + UChicago, Stanford, MIT, Caltech, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Rice, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Emory, Wash. Univ at SL

Through inertia they will continue to be the #1 destination for the world's elite. In spite of the spotlight shone on some of the contentious issues of today, I don't see these universities are going anywhere.

The UC system:
More demand, same supply. Center of tech and innovation. Historically, less than half the price of comparable private schools. Increasing demographic changes skewing Asian ensures robust demand. Internationals love the UC's.

Top flight publics outside of the UC's:
UVA, UNC, Michigan, UIUC, UGA, Florida, Texas, A&M
Population growth in the south, plus tradition, plus in-state tuition will continue to drive the bus. Crazy to think that Florida and UGA are now considered to be top flight universities.

Location-driven universities:
Boston, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Los Angeles
These schools benefit from being in a world-class city. Like the UC's, internationals love these schools. The university enriches the city; likewise, the city enriches the university.
BU, Northeastern, NYU, UMiami, USC, (Tulane??).

The potential up and comers:

East coast: Does GWU or American make that next-level leap considering the draw of D.C.? Again, limited supply at "top" schools means that the top will be filtered lower.

In Texas, does Texas, A&M and Rice suck the oxygen out so that a school like SMU can never make that leap? A growing state with a finite number of elite institutions.

Interesting list, and I will play along.

First, I disagree with the presumption that US universities will continue to be as desirous to internationals. We already saw a drop during the Trump years (pre-pandemic) due to visa restrictions. As reports of carjackings, shootings, etc., increase, internationalists will increasingly look to study in other countries. Look at the lists of top world universities! Already, we hardly dominate.

Your top-flight state universities list is short. Due to skyrocketing costs, more smart people will enroll at state flagships. Already, UMD and Rutgers, among many others, belong on your list.

[Anonymous]

This topic interests me. IF you ever listen to Pivot or Scott Galloway, he goes on and on about UCLA and how it was easy to get into and cheap. But I also think, but yeah, it also wasn't super well thought of then. It was good. Like maybe SUNY Binghampton.

And we all know how "elite" schools were far less elite in our day.

But your diploma carries with it any gained prestige. there's no "the old UCLA". there's just UCLA.

I wonder if there's an economic argument to go to the UCLA or Michigan of the future. Pitt? Bing? IDK what those might be.

There's a backlash in higher ed right now and I think some schools will respond by expanding seats, even using satellite campuses. Those won't make these schools more elite.

I think some schools instead choose to stay small and will go all scholarship, tuition-free (I've posted that here before) and for some that will mean leaping a tier. CMU maybe. Would be an immediate top 10. If it's Rice, it would move up to right below HYPSM.

[Anonymous]

All state flagships.

[Anonymous]

SEC schools. They are fun and alumni connections to jobs are solid.

[Anonymous]

I predict more Jesuit schools won't break the top 20 but will move into the space BC held 15 years ago.

Schools like Marquette, Gonzaga, U of San Diego, Loyola Chicago, Regis U, Loyola Marymount, Seattle U

for UMC families with A- kids these colleges provide a solid education while side stepping the culture wars. They're right-sized schools in urban (ish) locations with friendly kids, fun sports, dependable career placement all at a reasonable COA w merit.

[Anonymous]

As long as the US is seen as a tech leader, students will come here.

Plus, English as the lingua franca dictates that other nations' universities are at a structural disadvantage.

International Students by Enrollment
New York University 24,496
Northeastern University - 20,637
Columbia University 19,001
Arizona State University - Campus Immersion Tempe AZ 17,981
University of Southern California 17,264
University of Illinois - 14,680
Boston University Boston MA 13,281
Purdue University - 11,872
University of California - Berkeley 11,719
University of California - San Diego 1 0,431
University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

The UC's are in a different spot than private schools. They are limited in the number of international admits every year. However, demographically, the UC's are dominated by immigrant/2nd generation immigrant families. So they can skim the cream off of the international crop.

Purdue should be mentioned there. Pitt? I'm not sure of. GWU "only" has 3,500 international students. I imagine not being a STEM-focused school limits that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take:

With 2.8 billion Chinese and Indians, a growing Asian domestic population, and a finite number of slots at top schools, my hypothesis is that the top schools we see today will retain their status PLUS get increasingly more difficult to gain entry. The skills necessary for technological advancements dictates that high-demand STEM graduates will continue to fuel the gap between "elite (and near-elite) institutions and everyone else. The number of international students studying in the US have doubled over the past 10 years. These students very much are "name driven" which drives the cycle of upward selectivity at all but a few schools.

My list:

Rich get richer category
Ivies + UChicago, Stanford, MIT, Caltech, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Rice, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Emory, Wash. Univ at SL

Through inertia they will continue to be the #1 destination for the world's elite. In spite of the spotlight shone on some of the contentious issues of today, I don't see these universities are going anywhere.

The UC system:
More demand, same supply. Center of tech and innovation. Historically, less than half the price of comparable private schools. Increasing demographic changes skewing Asian ensures robust demand. Internationals love the UC's.

Top flight publics outside of the UC's:
UVA, UNC, Michigan, UIUC, UGA, Florida, Texas, A&M
Population growth in the south, plus tradition, plus in-state tuition will continue to drive the bus. Crazy to think that Florida and UGA are now considered to be top flight universities.

Location-driven universities:
Boston, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Los Angeles
These schools benefit from being in a world-class city. Like the UC's, internationals love these schools. The university enriches the city; likewise, the city enriches the university.
BU, Northeastern, NYU, UMiami, USC, (Tulane??).

The potential up and comers:

East coast: Does GWU or American make that next-level leap considering the draw of D.C.? Again, limited supply at "top" schools means that the top will be filtered lower.

In Texas, does Texas, A&M and Rice suck the oxygen out so that a school like SMU can never make that leap? A growing state with a finite number of elite institutions.

Interesting list, and I will play along.

First, I disagree with the presumption that US universities will continue to be as desirous to internationals. We already saw a drop during the Trump years (pre-pandemic) due to visa restrictions. As reports of carjackings, shootings, etc., increase, internationalists will increasingly look to study in other countries. Look at the lists of top world universities! Already, we hardly dominate.

Your top-flight state universities list is short. Due to skyrocketing costs, more smart people will enroll at state flagships. Already, UMD and Rutgers, among many others, belong on your list.

Fortunately violent crime is dropping significantly and is basically back to pre-pandemic levels. So anyone deciding to not come in 2024 when they would have come in 2019 is just... welll... dumb

https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2023-10-20/killings-in-the-u-s-are-dropping-at-an-historic-rate-will-anyone-notice-essential-politics

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My take:

With 2.8 billion Chinese and Indians, a growing Asian domestic population, and a finite number of slots at top schools, my hypothesis is that the top schools we see today will retain their status PLUS get increasingly more difficult to gain entry. The skills necessary for technological advancements dictates that high-demand STEM graduates will continue to fuel the gap between "elite (and near-elite) institutions and everyone else. The number of international students studying in the US have doubled over the past 10 years. These students very much are "name driven" which drives the cycle of upward selectivity at all but a few schools.

My list:

Rich get richer category
Ivies + UChicago, Stanford, MIT, Caltech, Duke, Johns Hopkins, Rice, Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Emory, Wash. Univ at SL

Through inertia they will continue to be the #1 destination for the world's elite. In spite of the spotlight shone on some of the contentious issues of today, I don't see these universities are going anywhere.

The UC system:
More demand, same supply. Center of tech and innovation. Historically, less than half the price of comparable private schools. Increasing demographic changes skewing Asian ensures robust demand. Internationals love the UC's.

Top flight publics outside of the UC's:
UVA, UNC, Michigan, UIUC, UGA, Florida, Texas, A&M
Population growth in the south, plus tradition, plus in-state tuition will continue to drive the bus. Crazy to think that Florida and UGA are now considered to be top flight universities.

Location-driven universities:
Boston, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Los Angeles
These schools benefit from being in a world-class city. Like the UC's, internationals love these schools. The university enriches the city; likewise, the city enriches the university.
BU, Northeastern, NYU, UMiami, USC, (Tulane??).

The potential up and comers:

East coast: Does GWU or American make that next-level leap considering the draw of D.C.? Again, limited supply at "top" schools means that the top will be filtered lower.

In Texas, does Texas, A&M and Rice suck the oxygen out so that a school like SMU can never make that leap? A growing state with a finite number of elite institutions.

I think it is more like any top school will get topper. Any sucky school will get suckier or close. The middle will stay the middle.

[Anonymous]

Good list, OP

[Anonymous]

In-state publics that offer merit.

[Anonymous]

- The top 20 national universities will be seen as peers. HPY will lose some prestige, while schools like Chicago, Duke, and Vanderbilt will become their peers.

- The best SLACs (not including the military academies) will grow in stature and size as more kids want a quality education - not just a name - and STEM requires more economic scale.

- The best state universities will also become more coveted, grow, and accept more OOS students. 50% OOS will become the norm for these schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:- The top 20 national universities will be seen as peers. HPY will lose some prestige, while schools like Chicago, Duke, and Vanderbilt will become their peers.

- The best SLACs (not including the military academies) will grow in stature and size as more kids want a quality education - not just a name - and STEM requires more economic scale.

- The best state universities will also become more coveted, grow, and accept more OOS students. 50% OOS will become the norm for these schools.

Very few SLACS have the infrastructure or the desire to expand. I agree that the top 20 are becoming indistinguishable from one another. Finite number of seats available, yet growing and insatiable demand for them is a recipe for the top to get toppier. In 20 years, maybe South Carolina or Clemson might be looked at how we view UVA today.

The privates have an inherent advantage when it comes to international students. There will always be political blowback facing state schools who admit too many internationals, with the argument that these students are taking seats away from residents. NYU, BU, Northeastern, USC don't have that constraint.